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Impacts of Climate Change on Agro-climatic Indices in Eastern Canada

Impacts of Climate Change on Agro-climatic Indices in Eastern Canada. Sam Gameda and Andy Bootsma Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Ottawa. CGCM1 Mean Temperature Change Summer - JJA 2050s. Source: Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Group. CGCM1 Precipitation Change Summer - JJA 2050s.

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Impacts of Climate Change on Agro-climatic Indices in Eastern Canada

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  1. Impacts of Climate Change on Agro-climatic Indices in Eastern Canada Sam Gameda and Andy Bootsma Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Ottawa

  2. CGCM1 Mean Temperature ChangeSummer - JJA 2050s Source: Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Group

  3. CGCM1 Precipitation ChangeSummer - JJA 2050s Source: Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Group

  4. GCMs Predict Increases in Climate Variables(e.g. Temperature, Precipitation) • How will these changes affect Agro-climatic indices? • What are the potential impacts on crop production?

  5. Atlantic Canada

  6. Crop Heat Units (CHU) Average Crop Heat Units

  7. Effective Growing Degree Days (EGDD)

  8. Water Deficit

  9. Potential ACI changes:

  10. Implications for Atlantic Canada Significant potential for Large-scale: • expansion in corn and soybean areas • Reduction of areas under small-grain cereals (e.g. barley)

  11. Production scenario

  12. Quebec & Ontario

  13. Potential ACI changes:

  14. Implications for Quebec & Ontario • Some areas presently marginal or unsuitable for grain corn and soybean production will become suitable for these crops. • Areas presently well-suited for grain corn and soybean production will be suited for longer-season hybrids, with potentially higher yields

  15. Some Considerations • These findings are based on comparisons of current 30-year climate normals (averages) with those from an equivalent future 30-year period • Significant changes in variability and extreme events are anticipated under climate change

  16. Projected 24-h Rainfall Events Averaged over Canada (Source: CGCM1A - Kharin and Zwiers 2000)

  17. Summary Likely consequences of climate change on agriculture in Eastern Canada: • Significant increases in areas under corn and soybean in Atlantic Canada. • Significant increase in yields of corn and soybean in Quebec and Ontario • Expected increases in variability and extreme events could have significant impact on seasonal variability and risks to production

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