Letting off gas in a small world

1. Cotswold AONBPaul Cottington MSc, MIEEM- SW NFU Environment Adviser01392 440700 - paul.cottington@nfu.org.uk The NFU champions British farming and provides professional representation and services to its farmer and grower members

2. Letting off gas in a small world

3. It’s an udder shockThe Daily Star 22nd October 2008

4. Outline of presentation • Setting the scene for the debate • The predictions for Climate Change from UKCP09 • A quick look at agricultures contribution • What are farmers facing now and in 20yrs time? • What are farmers doing now and what will they be doing in 20yrs time?

5. Aim for 2050 • 80% reduction

6. Agriculture Aim for 2020 • 11% reduction • Eng only or equiv of 3 mt CO2e

7. How do farmers see things? • 60% of farmers think climate change is impacting their farm now • 60% of farmers believe their growing season is lengthening

8. NFU’s position on climate change • Adaptation by agriculture is needed as we are already committed to some degree of climate change • We believe that the UK farmers can continue to supply food and fuel for a growing global population whilst helping the natural environment and society to adjust to climate change • Agriculture is also part of the solution to climate change. A 'green energy revolution' will be needed to meet the Climate Change Act targets and the NFU wants farming to be a major part of it

9. NFU’s work on climate change • Farm Energy Service • NFU Energy Service • Farming Futures Factsheets, signposting, guidance etc • Climate Change Task Force • Collaboration between AIC, CLA and NFU • Ambitions on areas such as AD • Member advice and guidance • Promotion of opportunities • GHG Action Plan

12. For rainfall we could see significant summer decreases(dates represent decades and changes are against a 1961-1990 average) Reduced stream flow and water quality Increased drought Subsidence Decreased crop yields Serious water stress South West England central estimate Medium emissions For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than -49% and very unlikely to be higher than +6% 12

13. For rainfall we see significant winter increases (dates represent decades and changes are against a 1961-1990 average) Increased winter flooding Increased subsidence Risks to urban drainage Severe Transport disruption Risks of national Infrastructure South West central estimate Medium Emissions For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than +6% and very unlikely to be higher than +54% 13

14. For summeraverage temperature, we see significant increases over the decades to the 2080s(dates represent decades and changes are against a 1961-1990 average) Increased Tourism Increased Heat stress Infrastructure risks Risks to biodiversity Heat related deaths Risk to Food Security But the temperature on the hottest day of the year could increase by up to 10ºC South-West England central estimate Medium emissions The change for the 2080s is very unlikely to be less than 2.1ºC and very unlikely to be more than 6.4ºC 14

15. UK ag emissions • Agricultural production contributes 7% of the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions: < 1% of carbon dioxide (CO2) ~ 1/3rd of methane (CH4) ~ 2/3rds of nitrous oxide (N2O) Energy industries Manufacturing and construction Transport Transport

16. How does UK ag compare?

17. Sources of GHGs

18. Livestock and climate change Mitigation Methane • Methane emissions reduced by 22%since 1990 in England • From enteric fermentation through dietary change, rumen manipulation • From manure through better management (oxygen supply/covers) or use manure in an anaerobic digester for renewable energy generation – potentially very important in the future

19. What could Cotswold farming be like? More mixed farming? Will we still be farming grass? What can our soils offer? More energy crops? Higher yields but more likely to have extreme weather? Less livestock? Is this CC or general trend and market? More cooperation?

20. What are farmers facing in NOW in terms of climate change? Extreme weather events Changing growing seasons Uncertainty over possible effects Keeping animals in for longer Increased pressure to change practices to meet societal needs but with no real market to pay for the benefits.

21. What are farmer facing in 2029 in terms of climate change? Extreme weather events Changed growing seasons Likely to have new of pests and diseases – complicated picture Problems with sourcing water Higher energy costs and continued volatility Increased regulatory burden Increased pressure to deliver more from a finite amount of land Food security Energy etc

22. What are farmers doing - Now? Moving to new farming systems - min till Soil protection reviews Looking at new diets for livestock - defaunating Covering yards to minimise runoff Putting in bore holes Using carbon tools like CALM – Energy efficiency Solar panels for water heating - dairy AD systems Not changing crops Miscanthus and SRC Rainwater harvesting Vaccinating against diseases - e.g. bluetongue Reducing the amount of N, P, K

23. What are farmers doing - 2029? All of the NOW stuff Nutrient management plans New crops and varieties have been introduced New breeds have been introduced Battling new diseases Going off grid Exporting excess energy AD, biofuels, biomass, geothermal, solar, wind, micro-hydro Improved flood defence for the farms and society Better water management - Increased use of irrigation Selling in new markets e.g. Water quality, Energy production, Carbon sequestering

24. And what are we asking of government and NGOs? How does the farmer get paid for delivering public goods e.g. carbon sequestering etc? How important is food security not just in rhetoric but in action? Recognise that agriculture is part of the solution in delivering the renewables agenda.

25. John Maynard Keynes When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do?

26. Thank you

29. Risks (?) to our farming systems