Underutilized Species and Climate Change:

Underutilized Species and Climate Change: exploring the issues involved, scope for research and Bioversity’s possible role Mikkel, Stefano, Irmgard, others 4 Feb 2008 - Bioversity Planning Week

Outline • Climate change: introduction • Agriculture and climate change: what we know • NUS and climate change: issues involved • Bioversity NUS and CC: research scope and role

Climate change is happening NOW and it is a reality • Most victims are poor, they loose more and recover less • Significant barriers, extra challenges to meet MDGs • Enhances existing risks and vulnerability of people • Flood, droughts, storm/cyclone, salinity intrusion etc destroys annual harvests of Asia and the Pacific • Vulnerability is highest in LDCs in the tropics and subtropical areas

Sources of Green House Gases • Energy Sector • Energy Industry • Manufacturing Industries • Transport • Residential Sector • Commercial • Agriculture • Agriculture Sector • Crop Agriculture • Livestock and Manure Management- • Landuse Change and Forestry • Conversion of Land • Consumption of Timber and Deforestation

Predicted Changes in Climate Rainfall • Increased water availability in moist tropics and high latitudes • Decreased water availability and drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes Temperature • Global temperatures are likely to increase by 1.1 to 6.4°C from 1990 to 2100 (best estimates 1.8 to 5.4) Sea level rise • Sea levels are likely to rise in the range of 22-34 cm between 1990 and the 2080s Extreme events • Likely that future tropical cyclones, typhoons, and hurricanes will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation Rahman and Alam, 2007

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report 2007: • Mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined on average in both hemispheres. Widespread decreases in glaciers and ice caps have contributed to sea level rise • Global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 mm per year over 1961 to 2003. • Long-term trends from 1900 to 2005 have been observed in precipitation amount over many large regions. Significantly increased precipitation has been observed in eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia. Marr Glacier in Antarctica Rapid thinning of the Greenland ice sheet

The impact on agriculture will vary greatly over time and across locations, depending on agro-ecologies, production systems and plant/animal sp • Climate change will cause shifts in areas suitable for cultivation of many crops (N.USA, Canada and most of Europe increase in suitable area), • Significant losses of genetic resources in several regions • Sub-Saharan Africa and the Caribbean will lose suitable land – countries with least capacity to cope with climate change.. Bolivia. Source: Annie Lane

Modeling climate change impacts on major crops • To identify crops and regions most afflicted by climate change • The Ecocrop model (http://ecocrop.fao.org/) used as base analyzed against two future downscaled GCM output models: HADCM3 model and CCCMA model • Examine the global changes in suitability for 43 ‘Annex 1’ listed crops of the FAO International Treaty, plus groundnut, soybean, sugar cane

Average changes in suitability for the HADCM3 model (top) and CCCMA model (bottom). Blue = increase in suitabilityRed = reduction in suitability. Crops includeAnnex 1 of ITPGRFA Other cash crops

Crops to be affected: • 23 crops likely to suffer significant • decreases in suitable areas on av.: • typically cold weather crops, including strawberry (32%), wheat (18%), rye (16%), apple (12%), oats (12%) (Annex 1).

Crops expected to gain: • 20 crops likely to gain in • suitable areas: • The biggest gains are for pearl millet (31%), sunflower (18%), common millet (16%), chick pea (15%) and soya bean (14%), • Many of the “gains” occur in regions where these crops are currently not integral component of food-security • Overall, suitable area for crop cultivation is projected to increase...

Country to gain: Finlandclimate warming forecasts in south-central areas • Yearly growth period extended by 4 weeks. • Effective growth temperature sum increasing 25%. • Winter days with snow cover decreasing 20-40%. • General climate becomes more maritime. by 2050:

Why NUS in the context of CC? • Represented mostly by wild species, ecotypes, landraces • Local importance in consumption and production systems • Highly adapted to agro-ecological niches/marginal areas • Little attention by National Policies, R&D • Poor documentation (distribution, biology, cultivation, uses) • Non existent/poorly organized marketing & “filiere” • Cultivated and utilized relying on Indigenous Knowledge • Scarcely represented in ex situ germplasm collections • Maintained mainly through in situ /on-farm conservation • Characterized by non existent/fragile seed supply systems • Characterized by multiple uses

Traditional societies deploy strategies that use genetic diversity to reduce risks and mitigate impacts of long term environmental change: Sahelian, Andean, Himalayan farmers plant many crops and crop varieties that allow them to adjust planting dates and crop mixtures to erratic rainfall patterns, e.g. sorghum, millets and fonio, floating rice African rice.

Bambara groundnut (Vigna subterranea)

Fonio (Digitaria exilis), Bamako market (Mali). Kreb (mixture of a dozen cereals such as Eragrostis tef,Echinocloa spp., Panicum spp.). Fonio in Bamako (Mali)

Vigna marina (Iñhaca island, Mozambique)

Andean grains quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa) cañihua (C. pallidicaule) amaranth (Amaranthus caudatus) lupin (Lupinus album)

Ghana: 2,500 useful Mediterranean: 137 vegetables Kenya: 800 food species China: 5,000 medicinal North America: 1,112 edible India: 2,500 medicinal Malaysia: 800 fruit trees Sahel: 800 edible Swaziland: 200 edible Peru: 168 home gardens RICH but POORLY EXPLOITED NATIONAL ENDOWMENTS

Rationale NUS are widely recognized to provide essential livelihood options to the poor and marginal farmers. Their adaptability and resilience to stresses provide farmers with needed coping strategies to confront with climate changes.

Justification • Research: as leading Agency working on NUS need to fill important knowledge gap re NUS and their roles in CC scenarios; • Conservation: Changes in land use due to climate change may further marginalize NUS – currently not attractive from an economic perspective and with no ready-to-use enhancement packages; • Livelihood: Because of their very limited conservation, documentation (incl. IK) and poor seed systems, CC would certainly accelerate the loss of their genetic diversity and exacerbates reduction of livelihood options among the poor;

Najam et al., 2003 and Alam, 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report - 2007 IPCC Third Assessment Report - 2001 IPCC Second Assessment Report - 1995 IPCC First Assessment Report - 1990 Climate + Impacts Climate + Impacts Cost-effectiveness Climate + Impacts Cost-effectiveness Climate + Impacts Equity Cost-effectiveness Equity Alternative Development Pathway (Cost-effectiveness) (Equity) (Alternative Development Pathway) (Sustainable Development)

Example of current adaptation in Bangladesh • Changes of cropping patterns: • Plant two or more crops instead of one or a spring and fall crop with a short fallow period to avoid excessive heat and drought in midsummer. • New crop and SPECIES varieties: to address flood, drought and saline tolerant varieties

Examples from Bangladesh Increase income through alternative livelihoods using local species: • Vegetable farming • Household level nurseries

Examples from Bangladesh Floating gardens/farming

Research issues / objectives • Confirm hypothesis of comparative advantages of NUS in drier, saline, marginal areas (answer the many WHICH? WHERE? HOW?); • Assess impact of CC on genetic diversity distribution patterns and use management of NUS; • Develop methods and tools to assist partners in deployment of NUS in adaptation, mitigation and risk coping strategies.

Opportunities • Possible launching in 2008 of new entity (“Crops for the Future”) that would continue GFU mission. • Interest by the Spanish to support Conference on NUS and climate change late this year in Cordoba. • Current finalization of System Priority 1B (dealing with NUS). • Take advantage of possible dedicated project to develop framework to conserve NUS diversity and IK • Raise visibility of NUS to influence relevant policies (a new Treaty for NUS?) • Link to existing work on CWR and Forest spp. (EUFORGEN) and IFAD-NUS (prepare way for IFAD NUS III to focus on CC?)

Enhancing use through greater competitiveness: availability of new technologies and opening-up of new markets will allow people to move into marginal areas previously less populated where NUS are better suited...

Conclusions • Areas so far occupied by major crops will shift as a result of climate change and these can be used for more adaptable NUS; • International community needs findings to support hypothesis- Bioversity well positioned to tackle research challenge; • Work to link with existing efforts- not starting from scratch! • Momentum that favors research in this direction • Africa should deserve greater focus • Cordoba Conference could help strategizing • Assessing diversity & CC, suitable policies, empowering community as pillars of work

Underutilized Species and Climate Change: