National Center for Atmospheric Research

1. NCAR Management ReviewTim KilleenDirectorNational Center for Atmospheric Research March 20, 2006

2. National Center for Atmospheric Research • A federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) operated by UCAR and supported by NSF (and others). • A national center for research and education in the atmospheric and related sciences • A provider of computational, data, and observational facilities and services for the university community

3. Atmospheric and Earth System Sciences Information Technologies Integration of Research and Education NCAR at the Nexus

4. In Millions Total: $150.5 FY2005 NCAR Expenditures by Fund Source > 950 Staff, > 500 Scientists and Engineers

5. Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL) EarthObservingLaboratory (EOL) Earth and Sun Systems Laboratory (ESSL) ResearchApplications Laboratory (RAL) Societal-Environmental Research and Education Laboratory (SERE) A. Kellie R. Wakimoto G. Brasseur B. Foote D. Josephson IMAGe CDS ACD AAP ASP CGD HAP CCB SCD DFS HAO ISSE JNT FPS MMM NSAP ISF TIIMES WSAP RAF RSF TDF Scientific Research Divisions Newly Formed Institutes Facility and Service Providers Education and Application Programs UCAR NCAR Directorate University Collaborations and New Programs

6. Our Leadership Team NCAR Executive Committee and Lab Associate Directors • Meets bi-weekly on the strategic management of NCAR • NCAR Director and Chair – Tim Killeen • NCAR Deputy Director – Larry Winter • CISL Director – Al Kellie • EOL Director – Roger Wakimoto • ESSL Director –Guy Brasseur • RAL Director – Brant Foote • NCAR Science Advisor, Piotr Smolarkiewicz • SERE Director – Diana Josephson, Maura Hagan, Acting • Manager of Directorate Operations - Catherine Shea • Director of Research Relations - Peter Backlund • Director of Budget and Planning - Rena Brasher-Alleva • Executive Assistant to the Director - Veda Emmett Directors • Enlarged Committee, meets monthly on policy, programs, science plans • EOL Deputy, Karyn Sawyer • ESSL Deputy, Annick Pouquet • ISSE Director - Linda Mearns • ASP Director, Maura Hagan • MMM Director, Greg Holland • CGD Director, Jim Hurrell • HAO Director, Michael Knölker • IMAGe Director, Doug Nycha • TiiMES Director, Rit Carbone • CCB Director, Mickey Glantz • ACD Interim Director, Brian Ridley

7. Institution Rankings in the GeosciencesSorted by Citations – January 2006 Data courtesy of ISI Essential Science Indicators™ – Powered by ISI Web of Knowledge™

8. Priorities for the Institution (Killeen, July, 2000) • Developing the human capital • Expanding the intellectual envelope • and building new capacities • Expanding partnerships and • creating new collaborations

9. Threads • The Planning Process • Human Capital • Capabilities and Facilities • Intellectual Envelope • Partnerships and Collaborations • How we manage

10. Threads • The Planning Process • Human Capital • Capabilities and Facilities • Intellectual Envelope • Partnerships and Collaborations • How we manage

11. 2006 2001 • Innovator – Creating new practices and methods across our service, research, and education activities Themes of NCAR’s Strategy • Integrator – Generating and disseminating knowledge and information across disciplines and from many sources • Community Builder – Organizing and supporting the community

12. Community & Staff Participation

13. NCAR STRATEGIC PLANNING CREATING THE PLAN Environmental Scan SWOT Analysis Leadership Direction Staff Brainstorming Community Input Writing Team Stakeholder Review Final Product Alignment

14. Our Approach: A Nested Hierarchy of Plans Laboratories Divisions/Institutes Alignment

15. Resulting in Institutional Priorities • Support for early-career scientists, career enhancement, leadership programs, faculty fellowships • Community User Facilities, including HIAPER, supercomputing, CCSM, and WRF • Creation of budgetary and programmatic flexibility • Programmatic innovation: Strategic initiatives, opportunity funds, visitor programs, more emphasis on interdisciplinary and cross-cutting work • Nested strategic plans: NSF, NCAR, all programs • New space creation and utilization • Reorganization

16. Threads • The Planning Process • Human Capital • Capabilities and Facilities • Intellectual Envelope • Partnerships and Collaborations • How we manage

17. Demographic Challenges, 2000 NCAR NCAR ASP

18. Developing Our Human Capital • Diversity Task Force Report • http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/Values/diversity.html • Mentoring Guidelines • http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/Values/mentoring.html • APS Site Visitclimate for women scientists • Leadership Academyhttp://www.fin.ucar.edu/hr/leadership_academy

19. A “Model Center” for the 21st Century Some New NCAR Scientists

20. 9/1/05

21. Building Diversity: SOARSProgram Creates a direct pipeline to bring ethnically diverse undergraduate students into careers in the atmospheric and related sciences. Sponsors Include: NSF DOE Environmental Sciences Division NOAA Office of Global Programs and CU/Boulder CIRES NASA Goddard Space Flight Center UCAR and NCAR Summer Protégés 21 participants http://www.ucar.edu/

22. Education and Outreach Programsat UCAR and NCAR Informal Science Education Events Super Science Saturday, Public Lectures, Conferences Tours Customized Visits, Guided and Self-Guided (Bi-lingual Audio Tour) Exhibits Mesa Lab Lobby (Upgrades) Web-Based Resources Windows to the Universe Web Weather for Kids NCAR EO web site Divisional EO web sites Roberts’ Forum Skymath, Project LEARN Outreach Resources: Scientist Outreach, Science Now Capacity Building (inter-Americas Institute, postdoc network, etc.) Diversity initiatives Formal Education K-12 Students Mesa Lab Classroom Tours K-12 Teachers Climate and Global Change Workshop Modeling in the Geosciences Workshop Curriculum Development GLOBE Undergraduates SOARS Unidata Undergraduate Leadership Workshops Graduate/Postgraduate Study Advanced Study Program (Postdocs) Graduate Fellowships COMET professional training programs Early-Career Faculty Fellowships Digital Libraries Digital Library for Earth Science Education (DLESE) National Science Digital Library (NSDL)

23. Tenure-track Staff Moves between NCAR and Universities/Labs 2000 – 2005 9/1/05

24. Threads • The Planning Process • Human Capital • Capabilities and Facilities • Intellectual Envelope • Partnerships and Collaborations • How we manage

25. Observational Facilities: The High-Performance Instrumented Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) • Custom designed for unprecedented field research • Satellite communications allow greater, real-time participation from investigators and students at remote locations • Delivered on time and under budget

26. Terrain-Induced Rotor Experiment (T-REX), March, 2006

27. MIRAGE - Megacities Impact on Regional and Global Environment- Mexico City 1-29 March 2006 • Goal: Characterize the extent, persistence, and potential impacts of the pollution plume on surrounding areas. • Over 60 other participating institutions including 38 universities. • Started out as NCAR Opportunity Funded initiative. Major international collaboration and hands-on training of students. • http://www.windows.ucar.edu/ Mexico City Pollution

28. NCAR conducts a User Survey after every field campaign March 2005

29. Sustained GFLOPs at NCAR mid-2007

30. Modern Climate Model Implementations • Characteristics of NCAR CCSM3: • ~1 quadrillion operations/simulated year • Rate of simulation: 3.5 sim. years/day • Output: 10 GB/simulated year • Data volume for IPCC: ~100 TB • Development effort: ~1 person-century

31. Science Driven Demand for Supercomputing

32. A Vision for the Geosciences • Establish a Petascale Collaboratory for the Geosciences with the mission to provide leadership class computational resources that will make it possible to address, and minimize the time to solution of, the most challenging problems facing the geosciences. • Science requirements have been detailed • Geosciences is ready for transformative capabilities, via access to Petascale computing: not just for atmospheric sciences but for all of Geosciences

34. Earth System Modeling Framework Rollout DAO fvCAM 14 major Earth system codes Each is coupled to a code never coupled to before: - 3 by July 03 - all 14 by July 04 DAO analysis GFDL FMS B-grid atmosphere NASA NASA NSIPP atmosphere NSF NASA GFDL MOM4 ocean NSF NSIPP ocean Earth System Modeling Framework Development NASA GFDL POM or MOM4 NSF LANL CICE DOE NCAR CAM NSF MITgcm ocean MIT NCEP/NCAR WRF NOAA NSF Early adopters of the ESMF CLM ? NCEP atmosphere NOAA 8/04 GSFC Global LIS Early NOAA NASA NCEP analysis NOAA NCEP model UCLA AGCM UCLA All JMC validation codes compliant - April 04 11/04 Adoption LANL HYPOP DOE 1/05 - Broad use - Enhancement - Maintenance Unprecedented software sharing ease among the nation’s major Earth system models One of: GISS, COLA, IRI, JPL, LLNL, Colorado State, U.Illinois, Scripps, U.Miami, NOAA FSL, Florida State, Rutgers, ORNL, Air Force Weather Agency, U.Washington ESTO Earth Science Technology Office Jim Fisher

35. Threads • The Planning Process • Human Capital • Capabilities and Facilities • Intellectual Envelope • Partnerships and Collaborations • How we manage

36. Community models Biogeosciences Water cycle Climate impacts assessment Coronal magnetism Data assimilation Community data portals GIS -Geographic information systems Whole atmosphere modeling Education and outreach University support programs: undergraduates, graduates, postdocs, early career faculty Programmatic Innovation Strategic initiatives defined, funded, and developed into important new areas in NCAR’s base program.

37. The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) Program Scientific Objectives: • Develop a comprehensive climate model to study the Earth’s Climate. • Investigate seasonal and interannual variability in the climate. • Explore the history of Earth’s climate. Recent Accomplishments: • Release of a new version (CCSM3) to the climate community. • Creation of largest ensemble of simulations for the IPCC AR4. • >200 institutions, 229 papers to date, >600 source code downloads http://www.ccsm.ucar.edu

38. CCSM Working Groups Model-centric Atmosphere Model Land Model Ocean Model Polar Climate Crosscutting Climate Change PaleoClimate Biogeochemistry Climate Variability Software Engineering

39. Decision Support: Land-falling winds, Natural Gas Pipelines, ProcessingPlants & Compressors The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Community Model: 4 km Moving-Grid Katrina Forecast Wind Speed (m/s) Cat 1: 33-42 Cat 2: 42-50 Cat 3: 50-59 Cat 4: 60-69 Cat 5: >69 Initialized 27 Aug 2005 00 Z

40. Towards a Global Weather Research Forecast Model (WRF)

41. Global Pollution Observations from NASA’s Terra Spacecraft(NASA, NCAR, and the University of Toronto) Red: 450 parts per billion Blue: 50 parts per billion

42. Physics-Based Predictive Model of Solar Cycle Amplitudes • Model incorporates poloidal, toroidal magnetic fields and meridional circulation • Cycle 24 will be 30-50% bigger than cycle 23 Observed cycles Predicted cycles (Dikpati, de Toma & Gilman, 2006, GRL, March 2006)

43. Ensemble Predictions From Scientific Analysis to End-user Information Systems Emergency Response GIS Integration Coastal Environments

44. Threads • The Planning Process • Human Capital • Capabilities and Facilities • Intellectual Envelope • Partnerships and Collaborations • How we manage

45. Many New Partnerships • Formal agreements with institutions in over 10 countries, see international brochure • New MOU’s with Los Alamos, Oakridge, India, China, Sandia, Japanese Earth Simulator, ESRI, OGC, etc. • Participation in many large multi-institutional programs (e.g., NSF STC’s) • Faculty Fellowships, bi-directional sabbaticals

47. Threads • The Planning Process • Human Capital • Capabilities and Facilities • Intellectual Envelope • Partnerships and Collaborations • How we manage

48. Management Approach • Explicit planning cycles, open communications, and clear decision criteria • Organizational structures mapped to strategic goals • Develop leadership and shared vision • Budgetary and organizational flexibility • Annual Budget Review process • Advisory Committees and NCAR Advisory Council • Track metrics and learn from benchmarks • Use of community surveys and regular reviews • We track and respond to every recommendation • Close working relationship with NSF • Careful use of judgment to achieve balance

49. Results for FY2005 NCAR 0.37 0.57 0.06 Mapping investment to mission elements

50. Investment ($M) NCAR – all Labs ($143.9M) All visitors: 5% ($6.6M) Research Service E & O 37% 57% 6% Fraction in Category