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Predicting Winter Precipitation

Predicting Winter Precipitation. By: Tony Cummings. Problem. Winter precipitation is major issue Georgia is not as prepared Seasonal forecast would be helpful Already forecast seasonal temperatures. Data. Same data as undergraduate research KATL and KAHN from 1973-2007 ASOS data

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Predicting Winter Precipitation

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  1. Predicting Winter Precipitation By: Tony Cummings

  2. Problem • Winter precipitation is major issue • Georgia is not as prepared • Seasonal forecast would be helpful • Already forecast seasonal temperatures

  3. Data • Same data as undergraduate research • KATL and KAHN from 1973-2007 • ASOS data • Used Matlab script to decode

  4. Methodology • Decode Data • Analyze data • Linear Correlations [corr()] • Periodograms [periodogram()] • Cross spectral Analysis • cspd() • mscohere() • angle() .

  5. Correlations

  6. Periodograms

  7. Zoomed Periodograms

  8. Cross Spectral Analysis

  9. Phase angle

  10. Conclusions • Temps and Hours of precipitation are statistically correlated • Strong 6 year precipitation cycle • Cross Spectral Analysis results mixed • Precipitation predictions similar to temperature predictions

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