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WFO Binghamton Maddox Synoptic Type Flash Flood Classification Study

WFO Binghamton Maddox Synoptic Type Flash Flood Classification Study. By Christopher Gitro NWS Binghamton, NY. Motivation. Flash flooding remains the number 1 weather killer across the US 29 flash flood related fatalities in BGM’s CWA since Jan 1996 Most Recent: 01 Oct 10

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WFO Binghamton Maddox Synoptic Type Flash Flood Classification Study

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  1. WFO Binghamton Maddox Synoptic Type Flash Flood Classification Study By Christopher Gitro NWS Binghamton, NY

  2. Motivation • Flash flooding remains the number 1 weather killer across the US • 29 flash flood related fatalities in BGM’s CWA since Jan 1996 • Most Recent: 01 Oct 10 • Knowledge of favorable synoptic patterns responsible for significant flash flooding → higher situational awareness →Pattern Recognition • First local attempt to classify large scale flash flood episodes based on large scale synoptic patterns

  3. Methodology • Main Goal: Classify historically significant past flash flood episodes by the Maddox Synoptic classification scheme • Flash flood events from the winter of 1996 through present were examined • 42 total Events • An event was classified if any of the following three occurred: • 1) 5 or more flash flood reports from a single event • 2) $500K crop/property damage • 3) Fatality(ies) occurred • For synoptic environments in which the synoptic pattern did not reflect the traditional patterns as described by Maddox et al. (1979), the events were labeled as “Unclassified” • If a flash flood event resulted from a remnant tropical circulation moving across the area, the event was classified as “Tropical”

  4. Methodology Cont. • Archived H50 (SPC, HPC) 00Z/12Z Maps • Archived HPC analyzed surface maps • Radar animations analyzed through GR Analyst • NAM BUFKIT Proximity Soundings • Sounding was selected by picking the hour from closest NAM forecast point to time of initial flash flood report • (LLJ winds (BUFKIT defined), Cloud Layer Winds, MBE Speeds, Warm Cloud Depth, etc) • Anomaly departures derived from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data

  5. Review Synoptic Frontal All images from Maddox et al. (1979) Meso High

  6. Results 42 Total Events

  7. Frontal Type Anomaly Departures H50 Height (m) MSLP Sfc Air Temp PWAT H85 Meridional Winds

  8. Synoptic Type Anomaly Departures H50 Height (m) MSLP Sfc Air Temp PWAT H85 Meridional Winds

  9. Meso High Anomaly Departures H50 Height (m) MSLP Sfc Air Temp PWAT H85 Meridional Winds

  10. Tropical Anomaly Departures H50 Height (m) MSLP Sfc Air Temp PWAT H85 Meridional Winds

  11. Frontal Type ExampleBear Creek, PA (28 May 02) 1200 UTC 28 May 2002 SPC H50 Analysis (NAM) 1500 UTC 28 May 2002 HPC Analyzed SFC Analysis

  12. Frontal Type ExampleBear Creek, PA Flash Flood (28 May 02) • $5 Million Property Damage

  13. Synoptic Type Example25 Jan10 Flash Flood 1200 UTC 25 Jan 2010 SPC H50 Analysis (NAM) 1500 UTC 25 Jan 2010 HPC Analyzed SFC Analysis

  14. Synoptic Type Example25 Jan 10

  15. Meso High ExampleColchester, NY Flash Flood 1200 UTC 19 June 2007 NCEP H50 Analysis 2100 UTC 19 June 2007 HPC Analyzed SFC Analysis

  16. Meso High ExampleColchester, NY Flash Flood (19 Jun 07) • $30 Million Property Damage • 4 Fatalities

  17. Conclusions • The BGM HSA is susceptible to all 3 eastern US Maddox Flash Flood types • Synoptic type flash flood producing environments most common (20 cases) • Not all synoptic patterns cleanly fit into the Maddox classification scheme (10 unclassified, 3 tropical) • Frontal/Meso High less common but potentially devastating considering BGM’s highly variable terrain (terrain anchoring) • Both Meso High cases had fatalities

  18. Conclusions cont. • Synoptic flash flood producing environments showed the most variable spread (LLJ, Cloud Layer Winds, MBE Speeds) • Weaker forced frontal/meso high environments displayed less variable spread • Smaller sample size • The use of anomaly departure information can heighten a forecaster’s SA of a potential high impact flash flood producing environment 24-48 hrs out

  19. References Maddox, R. A., C. F. Chappell and L. R. Hoxit, 1979: Synoptic and meso-α scale aspects of flash flood events. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 60, 115-123.

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