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PNF Precipitation

Stay informed about weather conditions in Arizona! The July 2019 rain was only half of the historic average, and current precipitation levels are below normal in Crown King, Cherry, Iron Springs, and Verde. The temperature outlook predicts above-normal temperatures with normal precipitation. Fuel moisture levels are near lowest values, increasing fire risk. Track the Energy Release Component (ERC) to monitor wildfire potential. Keep updated on fire activity, fire size classes, agency assists, and fire risk outlook for August.

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PNF Precipitation

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  1. PNF Precipitation • 2019 - July produced half of the historic average rain

  2. PNF Weather Station Precipitation • Currently experiencing a significant deficit compared to average rain • Crown King Average • April: 1.16” • May: 0.30” • June: 0.26” • July: 3.44” • Crown King 2019 (64% of normal) • April: 0.34” • May: 1.12” • June: 0.00” • July: 1.85” • Cherry Average” • April: 0.72” • May: 0.34” • June: 0.23” • July: 2.43” • Cherry 2019 (82% of normal) • April: 0.18” • May: 1.14” • June: 0.00” • July: 1.73” • Iron Springs Average • April: 0.96” • May: 0.45 • June: 0.37” • July: 2.95” • Iron Springs 2019 (43% of normal) • April: 0.09” • May: 1.19” • June: 0.11” • July: 0.64” • Verde Average • April: 0.66” • May: 0.19” • June: 0.11” • July: 1.93” • Verde 2019 (56% of normal) • April: 0.05” • May: 0.69” • June: 0.00” • July: 0.87”

  3. Temperature / PrecipitationLast 30 Days Departure from Average

  4. Temperature/Precipitation One-Month Outlook • Above Normal temperature for Arizona. Normal precipitation for Arizona.

  5. Drought Monitor • Abnormally Dryconditions exist in Central Arizona • Current outlook shows no drought development likely

  6. Live Fuel Moisture No new data Near lowest values New lowest values

  7. Dead Fuel Moisture • Dead Fuel Moisture is the moisture content of dead organic fuels that is controlled entirely by exposure to environmental conditions. There are four fuel classes modeled within NFDRS. • 1-Hour Fuel Moisture - Dead fuels less than ¼” in diameter. Very responsive to current conditions (temperature, humidity, precipitation). Value range: 1 - 80% • 10-Hour Fuel Moisture - Dead fuels ranging from ¼” to 1” in diameter. Responsive to daily changes in weather. Value range: 1 - 60% • 100-Hour Fuel Moisture - Dead fuels ranging from 1” to 3” in diameter. As opposed to 1 & 10-Hour, these fuels are impacted by 24-hour trends (Max/Min Temp, Max/Min RH, precipitation duration). Value range: 1 - 50% • 1000-Hour Fuel Moisture - Dead fuels ranging from 3” to 8” in diameter. Value is based on running 7-day average. Impacted by 24-hour Max/Min Temp, Max/Min RH and precipitation duration values for a 7-day period. Value range: 1 - 40%

  8. PNF 100-hr Fuel Moisture • Currently well below average, reached minimum values

  9. PNF 1000-hr Fuel Moisture • Currently below average, trending down

  10. Energy Release Component The Energy Release Component is a number related to the available energy within the flaming front at the head of a fire. Daily variations in ERC are due to changes in the moisture content of the fuels present, both live and dead. As live fuels cureand larger dead fuels dry, ERC values get higher. The 1000-hr Fuel Moisture is one of the primary inputs into the ERC calculationand as such, 24-hour Max/Min Temperature, Max/Min RH and Precipitation Duration all affect the calculation. Since wind and fine fuel moisture do not affect the ERC calculation, the daily variation is relatively small. The ERC scale is open-ended or unlimited and is heavily dependent on the fuel model that is being used. Historically on the Prescott NF, the highest ERC values in the G fuel model have been around 110, while the highest ERC values in the B fuel model have been around 150.

  11. ERC - PNF Average • Currently well above average, close to maximum values

  12. ERC - PNF Valleys & Basins • Currently well above average, near maximum values

  13. ERC - PNF Mountains • Currently well above average, near maximum values

  14. PNF Fire Activity - 2019 Fire Size Class A: 0 - .25 B: .26 - 9.9 C: 10 - 99 D: 100 - 299 E: 300 - 999 F: 1000 - 4999 G: 5000 + • Agency Assists: 15 (0 in the last week) • False Alarm Response: 33(1 in the last week) • Abandoned/Illegal Campfires: 96 (1in the last week)

  15. Fire Potential Outlook August

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