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Shared Vision Planning through Computer Aided Dispute Resolution

A presentation on how Shared Vision Planning and computer-aided dispute resolution can help address persistent conflict and uncertainty in water resource planning. It discusses integrated assessment, participatory integrated assessment, and the benefits of shared vision planning.

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Shared Vision Planning through Computer Aided Dispute Resolution

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  1. Shared Vision Planning throughComputer Aided Dispute Resolution Stacy Langsdale, P.E., Ph.D. Institute for Water Resources, USACE www.SharedVisionPlanning.us

  2. Water resource planning & management is characterized by… • Persistent conflict • Complexity & uncertainty in natural systems (hydrology, ecology, climate change) • Conflicting interests & values • Interest groups and the public demanding involvement 1:50

  3. Integrated Assessment (Rotmans and van Asselt 1996) • Place problem in broader context • Assist with trend analysis • Assess alternatives • Framework to structure knowledge • Translate uncertainties into risk • Identify research gaps 3:50

  4. Participatory Integrated Assessment • More science does not eliminate uncertainty • Post-modernist view: science is subjective • Participants define value-based parameters • Involvement of the client helps to keep work relevant to their needs 6:35

  5. Shared Vision Planning Researchers The Community 10:15

  6. Shared Vision Planning builds: • understanding of the system • confidence in the analysis • trust among parties 10:45

  7. Technical Tools Understand basic hydrology, ecology, economics, etc Accurately represent the linkages between these areas Process Skills Understand institutional setting Determine ways to engage Stakeholders Build trust Leading participatory planning & management requires: 10:55

  8. Tier I: Conceptual Framework Tier II: Integrated Planning / Screening / Negotiating Model Tier III: Detailed Data Sets and Numerical Models Quality Hydrology Ecologic Economic 12:55

  9. System Dynamics • Developed by Jay Forrester at MIT in 1950’s. • Contrast to Reductionist approaches • Applied to Business Mgt, Urban Planning, and Global Modeling (Limits to Growth) • STELLA, ModSim, Vensim 14:50

  10. 15:25

  11. System Dynamics Principles (Richmond, 2004) • 10,000-Metre View • Dynamic Thinking • Events -> Patterns -> Causes • System as Cause 15:35

  12. SVP along the Rio Grande: process and products Jesse Roach Sandia National Labs 18:57

  13. Rio Grande system in New Mexico • Snowmelt driven system • Most water originates in the north • Majority of demand in the south • Human water use • Surface water use by agriculture (senior) • Groundwater use by municipalities (junior) • Management challenges • Fully allocated and limited supply • Endangered species habitat • Surface water deliveries to Texas • Unsustainable groundwater use by cities • Growing population • Drought prone • Established technical analysis tools • URGWOM: Daily timestep RiverWare based operations, accounting, forecasting and planning surface water model • ET Toolbox: USBoR product for ET estimation • MODFLOW: 3 regional gw models 20:20

  14. SVP along Rio Grande system in New Mexico • New Mexico water planning process: • 16 planning regions • Each tasked with developing a regional water plan • 2002-2004 SVP used in “Middle Rio Grande” region: • Model used to help develop regional water plan. • Seeking low cost and sustainable sw and gw use. • Annual timestep, spatially lumped. • SVP process with non-technical group. • 2004-2007 next generation of the model • Desire among water managers for more spatial • and temporal resolution in a rapid “screening” • and public outreach tool. • Monthly timestep, spatially resolved and extended • SVP process with technical group in order to incorporate physical processes as represented by existing analysis tools.

  15. Groundwater Supply, Surface Water Return Municipal water use has historically been supplied 100% from gw. 1 Indoor municipal water use goes to wwtp and from there to river. 2 Essentially all outdoor municipal water use is lost to atmosphere. 3 Cities along the river ET 3 Recharge 2 1 River Well Shallow Aquifer Regional Aquifer 28:25

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