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Evaluation of CAFE scenarios and outstanding modelling issues

This report evaluates the CAFE scenarios and addresses outstanding modelling issues. It discusses environmental objectives, results, benefits, macro-economic impacts, and next steps towards the NEC revision.

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Evaluation of CAFE scenarios and outstanding modelling issues

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  1. Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Evaluation of CAFE scenarios and outstanding modelling issues

  2. Contents • The final CAFE scenario • Environmental objectives • Results • Benefits • Macro-economic impacts • Further steps towards the NEC revision • Bilateral consultations • Model improvements • Time table

  3. Environmental objectives of the CAFE scenario

  4. Environmental targets of the EU Thematic Strategy

  5. Per-capita costs of the Thematic Strategy scenario

  6. Gain in statistical life expectancy for the CAFE scenario (months)

  7. Benefits of the CAFE scenariosSource: CAFE benefit analysis, Holland et al., 2005

  8. Macro-economic impacts of the CAFE scenarios compared to the baseline 2020Source: CAFE benefit analysis, Holland et al., 2005

  9. Environmental improvements of the CAFE scenarioImpact indicator in 2000 = 100%

  10. Next steps • Bilateral consultations • with 21 EU Member States, Norway: completed • + Switzerland, Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, Russia, Ukraine • All available and approved EGTEI results incorporated • NEC baseline scenario: Spring 2006 • Model improvements: Spring 2006 • Updated energy baseline projections (national and PRIMES) • City-Delta 3 for urban increments (improved population data, 2 more cities, improved validation) • Updated critical loads data • Multi-year meteorology • GAINS optimization: synergies with greenhouse gas mitigation • Policy scenarios: Rest of 2006

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