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NASA's MAP '06: Improving Tropical Cyclone Prediction

This project aims to utilize NASA's satellite remote sensing technologies and earth system modeling capabilities to enhance understanding and prediction of tropical cyclones. The project includes data assimilation, model assessments, and simulations during the 2006 hurricane season.

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NASA's MAP '06: Improving Tropical Cyclone Prediction

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  1. Overview of the 2006 NASA Modeling, Analysis and Prediction Project MAP’ 06: In Support of NASA Earth Science and Technology Bill Lapenta (NASA/MSFC) Michele Rienecker (GMAO/GSFC) Mike Seablom (SIVO/GSFC) Updated July 2006

  2. NASA Conducts Observation Driven Modeling…. • Satellites provide global coverage of Earth system parameters • Satellites characterize variability at seasonal-to-interannual timescales • Satellites provide information to initialize and validate coupled model systems • NASA emphasizes the optimal use of these data for analysis and prediction Models used for: • Improved scientific understanding • Hypothesis testing • Prediction

  3. The 2006 NASA Modeling and Analysis Project • Objective: • Application of NASA’s satellite remote sensing technologies and earth system modeling capabilities to improve understanding and prediction of tropical cyclones • Science Questions: • Can satellite data assimilation improve prediction (out to 5 days) of easterly waves, tropical cyclogenesis and hurricanes? • What impact is gained with increased model resolution? • What role do aerosols play in tropical cyclogenesis in the Atlantic basin? • What roles do land – ocean – atmosphere interactions play in the structure and evolution of easterly waves as they propagate off the western African coast?

  4. The Approach…. • Employ global (GEOS-5) and regional (WRF) modeling systems • Conduct data assimilation using GSI with GEOS-5 • Satellite DA and model assessment/evaluation using multiple satellite sensors/missions (AIRS, MODIS, AMSU, TRMM, CloudSat/CALIPSO) • Conduct global assimilation and simulations during the 2006 hurricane season --- statistically significant assessment of performance • Run regional WRF on demand with GEOS-5 initial and lateral boundary data • Formed a Science Working Group to coordinate experiments and subsequent analysis • Enabled by NASA High End Computing

  5. NASA Conducting Tropical Cyclone Campaign: N-AMMA-06 • Leverages off AMMA SOP-3 and will be based in Cape Verde • Multidisciplinary approach involving Weather, Water & Energy, Composition foci • Platforms: DC-8, Aerosonde, TOGA & NPOL radars, micropulse lidars • Partnering with European consortium, NOAA HRD • NAMMA-06 science in line with CCSP objectives

  6. GEOS5: Realizing the power of Columbia Precipitation Rate 1 degree resolution 0.5 degree resolution Increasing resolution improves realism of forecasts of the details in 2-day Katrina forecasts 0.25 degree resolution Sea Level Pressure 0.5 degree resolution 1 degree resolution 0.25 degree resolution Verifying Analysis from NOAA/NCEP Columbia allows high resolution and rapid time-to-solution

  7. Weather Research and Forecasting Model • Regional modeling component a new addition for MAP06 • Developed capability to initialize with GEOS-5/GSI analyses • Can run with ARW core with plans to include NMM • Focus on air-sea interactions with MODIS 1-km SST composites • Land-atmosphere interactions using the Land Information System (LIS) & cloud microphysics (GCE) • Conduct regional DA experiments • Cloud processes evaluation using Cloudast/Calipso

  8. Proposed MODIS SST Composite for MAP’ 06

  9. WRF used as “Model of Opportunity” • Normal Ops • N-AMMA Region • Florida/Gulf Coast • CloudSat Overpass • Special Ops • Tropical storms • Hurricane-US coast

  10. Access to High End Computing Test G5DAS G5, WRF G5DAS

  11. Visualization Techniques Web-based VMS HyperWall Technology

  12. Summary • Project focused on scientific issues • Assimilation perspective—GSI framework • Assessment of FV dynamics within GEOS-5 • Model assessment and evaluation • Includes process study perspective • Cross cuts several Interagency and NASA programs • Relevant to NASA-NOAA Research and Operations • Building links between JCSDA (NCEP/GMAO) and the NASA SPoRT activities • Coordination with US-AMMA Activities • Provide support to N-AMMA • DA Sensitivity studies complement those proposed by J. Dunion at AMOL/HRD • Provides supplemental track and intensity forecasts to TPC and FSU • Global and regional modeling PI’s working together on common scientific problems and interests

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