NATS 101 Lecture 31 Climate and Climate Change

1. NATS 101Lecture 31Climate andClimate Change

2. Climate Overview • Climate classified largely in terms of • Temperature & Precipitation (vs. evaporation)

3. Koppen Climate Classification Groups • A. Topical Moist: no winter • B. Dry: Potentialevapotranspiration > precipitation • C. Moist Mid-Latitude with mild winter • D. Moist Mid Latitudewith severe winter • E. Polar: cold, T<10oC • H. Highland Global map

4. More classification detail Dfa humid continental long hot summer Dfb humid continental long cool summer Dfc subpolar cool short summer Dw Dry winter ET polar tundra EF Polar ice cap H Highland Af Tropical rain forest Am Tropical monsoon Aw Tropical wet and dry BW Arid desert BS Semi-arid Cfa Humid subtropical Cfb Cfc Marine Cs Mediterranean dry summer Cw Dry winter

5. What is ClimateCHANGE? • Climate change - A significant shift in the mean state and event frequency of the atmosphere. • Climate change is a normal component of the Earth’s natural variability. • Climate change occurs on all time and space scales. • A plethora of evidence exists that indicates the climate of the Earth has changed.

6. Determining the Past Climate Paleoclimatology - the study of past climates. • Past 100-200 years (weather observations) • Must use indirect climate measures,proxies,to examine further into the past. Some proxies: - Tree rings (1,000+ years before present BP) - Trapped pollen (10,000+ years BP) - Glacial ice cores (100,000+ years BP) - Ocean sediment cores (1 Million+ years BP) - Geology (1 Billion+ years BP)

7. During last ice age (>18,000 years ago) Temps 6oC colder CO2 levels 30% lower CH4 levels 50% lower H2O levels were lower than current interglacial. What caused what? Ice Core from Vostok, Antarctica

8. Aguado and Burt, Fig 16-4 Most Recent Ice Age Extend of continental glaciers 18,000 years BP. Sea level was 100-125 m lower than present. Bering land bridge between Siberia and Alaska.

9. SST 18,000 years BP 18,000 BP Today Ahrens, Fig 13.2 Much cooler over the North Atlantic Ocean. Ocean currents were undoubtedly different. North Atlantic Drift was probably much weaker.

10. Temperatures Since Last Ice Age Glacial advance Apline advance Glacial retreat Rapid melt Ahrens, Fig 13.3 Rapid warming occurred at end of Younger-Dryas period. Ice cores indicate that Ice Age conditions ended in 3 years!

11. Climate Changes Affect Mankind Viking settlements lost in Greenland Viking colonization in Greenland Ahrens, Fig 13.4 Temperatures for eastern Europe during the last 1200 years.

12. 0.6oC warming past century Evidence of Climate Change Ahrens, Fig 13.5 Surface temperatures based on meteorological observations. Is the warming of the past century due to human activities?

13. Causes of Climate Change • Atmospheric Composition - Anything that changes the radiative properties of the atmosphere (volcanic aerosols, carbon dioxide). • Astronomical - Anything that alters the amount or distribution of solar energy intercepted by the Earth (solar variations, orbital variations). • Earth’s Surface - Anything that alters the flow of energy at the Earth's surface or changes its distribution (desertification, continental drift).

14. Causes of Climate Change Astronomical Composition Surface

15. Milankovitch Theory of Ice Ages • Attempts to explain ice ages by variations in orbital parameters • Three cycles: Eccentricity (100,000 yrs) Tilt (41,000 yrs) Precession (23,000 yrs) • Changes the latitudinal and seasonal distributions of solar radiation.

16. Milankovitch Theory of Ice Ages • Ice ages occur when there is less radiation in summer to melt snow. • Partially agrees with observations, but many questions unanswered. What caused the onset of the first Ice Age?

17. 250 million years ago, the world’s landmasses were joined together and formed a super continent termed Pangea. As today’s continents drifted apart, they moved into different latitude bands. This altered prevailing winds and ocean currents. NA E-A NA E-A India Af SA Aus Af SA India Aus Ant Ant 180 M BP Today Ahrens, Fig 13.6 Long-Term Climate Change

18. Long-Term Climate Change • Circumpolar ocean current formed around Antarctica 40-55 MY ago once Antarctica and Australia separated. • This prevented warm air from warmer latitudes to penetrate into Antarctica. • Absence of warm air accelerated growth of the Antarctic ice sheet. http://www.ace.mmu.ac.uk/eae/Climate_Change/Older/Continental_Drift.html

19. Our changing climate • Our climate is changing. • In particular, surface temperatures are increasing. => 1998 or 2005 is the warmest year in the past 400 years, and perhaps much longer

20. Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 25 0.1770.052 50 0.1280.026 100 0.0740.018 150 0.0450.012 Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time Period Rate Years /decade IPCC From K. Trenberth

21. Our changing climate • Arctic is warming faster than most other regions, largely as predicted by climate models • This raises questions about ice melt and sea level rise • Western US may warm and dry significantly (8oF in 50-100 years?)

22. Our changing climate: Key Questions • Climate modelers have predicted the Earth’s surface will warm because of manmade greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions • So how much of the warming is manmade? • How serious are the problems this is creating? • What, if anything, can and should we do?

23. The Natural Greenhouse Effect: clear sky CH4 N20 6% O3 8% Water Vapor 60% Carbon Dioxide 26% Clouds also have a greenhouse effect Kiehl and Trenberth 1997

24. Our changing climate: IncreasingCO2 concentrations • 2 most important greenhouse gases: H2O, CO2 • Man is modifying the CO2 concentrations via burning fossil fuels • CO2 concentrations are higher than any time in the last 400,000 years (NOAA site). • Amounts are now beyond the range of natural variations experienced over the past 700,000 years • Predictions are for CO2 concentrations to continue increasing to 1.5 to 3 times present values by 2100 (NOAA site)

25. ChangingCO2 concentrations • CO2 concentrations have varied naturally by a factor of 2 over the past few hundred thousand years • Fossil fuel burning since the industrial revolution has created a sharp increase in CO2 concentrations • CO2 concentrations are now higher than at any time in past few hundred thousand years • And concentrations are increasing faster with time Last 4 Ice Age cycles: 400,000 years Man made You are here See http://epa.gov/climatechange/science/recentac.html

26. During last ice age (>18,000 years ago) Temps 6oC colder CO2 levels 30% lower CH4 levels 50% lower H2O levels were lower than current interglacial. 130,000 years ago it was a bit warmer than today 50% change in CO2 associated with 8oC change in temperature 6-8oC decrease in temperature produced incredibly different climate: Ice Age Ice Core from Vostok, Antarctica

27. Changing atmospheric composition: CO2 Mauna Loa, Hawaii Data from Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Lab., NOAA. Data prior to 1974 from C. Keeling, Scripps Inst. Oceanogr.

28. IncreasingCO2 concentrations • How high will they go? • How warm will it get??? You are going to be here Last 4 Ice Age cycles: 400,000 years Man made You are here Ice age CO2 range See http://epa.gov/climatechange/science/futureac.html

29. Our changing climate: Can we predict it? • Yes, but with uncertainty. • Models do seem to be getting better From Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, R. Ruedy, K. Lo, D.W. Lea, and M. Medina-Elizade 2006. Global temperature change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 103, 14288-14293, doi:10.1073/pnas.0606291103.

30. GLOBAL Energy Flow Thru Atmosphere

31. Global Atmo Energy Balance In a stable climate, Solar Energy IN = IR Energy OUT IR Out Ahrens, Fig. 2.14 Solar in

32. Global Atmo Energy Imbalance Increasing GHG concentrations decrease Energy out So Energy IN > Energy OUT and the Earth warms IR Out is reduced Ahrens, Fig. 2.14 Solar in Atmosphere

33. Change in IR Emission to Space • Notice that because of Earth’s greenhouse gases, 91% (=64/70) [195/235 = 83%] of the IR emitted to space comes from the atmosphere and only 9% (=6/70) [40/235 = 17%] comes from the surface • When GHG’s are added to the atmosphere, the altitude of IR emission to space rises • In the troposphere, air temperature decreases with altitude • So the temperature of the emission to space decreases • So the energy emission to space decreases because the emission energy decreases with decreasing temperature

34. Change in IR Emission to Space BEFORE GHG increase IN=OUTAFTER GHG increase IR emission to space 3. IR emission to space decreases because of colder emission temperature SH NH Altitude of IR emission to space Ahrens, Fig. 2.21 1. Altitude of IR emission to space rises Altitude Temperature of IR emission to space 2. Temperature of IR emission to space decreases Temperature Temperature

35. Change in IR Emission to Space (cont’d) AFTER GHG increase IN>OUT Eventual solution IN=OUT 6. IR emission to space increases until it matches the original IR emission before GHG increases 3. IR emission to space decreases because of colder emission temperature SH SH Ahrens, Fig. 2.21 1. Altitude of IR emission to space rises Ahrens, Fig. 2.21 4. Atmosphere warms until… 2. Temperature of IR emission to space decreases 5. Temperature of IR emission to space increase to original temperature Temperature Temperature

36. Complexity of Climate System The climate system involves numerous, interrelated components.

37. Closer Look at Climate System

38. Climate Feedback Mechanisms

39. Positive and Negative Feedbacks • Assume that the Earth is warming. - Warming leads to more evaporation from oceans, which increases water vapor in atmosphere. -More water vapor increases absorption of IR, which strengthens the greenhouse effect. -This raises temperatures further, which leads to more evaporation, more water vapor, warming… “Runaway Greenhouse Effect” Positive Feedback Mechanism

40. Positive and Negative Feedbacks • Again assume that the Earth is warming. - Suppose as the atmosphere warms and moistens, more low clouds form. - More low clouds reflect more solar radiation, which decreases solar heating at the surface. - This slows the warming, which would counteract a runaway greenhouse effect on Earth. Negative Feedback Mechanism

41. Positive and Negative Feedbacks • Atmosphere has a numerous checks and balances that counteract climate changes. • All feedback mechanisms operate simultaneously. • All feedback mechanisms work in both directions. • The dominant effect is difficult to predict. • Cause and effect is very difficult to prove at the “beyond a shadow of a doubt” level.

42. Key Points: Climate Change • Proxy data are used to infer the past climate. • Data show that the Earth’s Climate Has changed in the past Is changing now And will continue to change • Key question is determining whether recent changes are due to natural causes or man.

43. Key Points: Climate Change • The climate system is very complex. Contains hundreds of feedback mechanisms All feedbacks are not totally understood. • Three general climate change mechanisms: Astronomical Atmospheric composition Earth’s surface

44. Assignment for Next Lecture • Topic -Anthropogenic Climate Change • Reading -Ahrens, p 391-399 • Problems -14.12, 14.15, 14.16, 14.19 • NOVA: “What’s Up with the Weather?”