Ekonomi Pendidikan

1. Ekonomi Pendidikan Dwini Handayani

2. Pokok Bahasan • Human Capital Theory • Investasi Sumber Daya Manusia • Demand dan Supply Bersekolah (schooling) • Rate of Return Pendidikan • Pendidikan dan Pertumbuhan Dwini Handayani

3. 1. Human Capital Theory • Human capital is any “stock” of (innate or acquired) knowledge or characteristics an individual possesses that contributes to his/her productivity • Sumber • Ability/talent (kemampuan/keahlian) • Schooling (bersekolah) • Training (pelatihan) Dwini Handayani

4. 1. Human Capital Theory • Pendidikan adalah investasi, mengandung rate of return di masa depan. • Bagaimana mengukur investasi ini ? • Upah • Ingat dalam jangka pendek upah adalah rigid dan dalam jangka panjang upah adalah flexible. Dwini Handayani

5. 1. Human Capital Theory • Bagaimana melihat upah sepanjang waktu? Menggunakan: • Life cycle model dari human capital • Mengukur pola upah sepanjang waktu (wage profile) Dwini Handayani

6. Pendapatan Umur Earning Profile Dwini Handayani

7. 1. Human Capital Theory Dalam investasi sumber daya manusia, dipengaruhi discount rate: • Semakin tinggi discount rate, maka semakin rendah keinginan untuk investasi (less future oriented) • Discount rate tergantung: • Market interest rate • Time preferences (bagaimana individu mau mengorbankan konsumsi sekarang dengan return yang akan diterima dimasa depan) Dwini Handayani

8. 1. Human Capital Theory Dwini Handayani

9. 1. Human Capital Theory • Pendidikan sebagai bentuk investasi, implikasinya: • Menurunkan konsumsi sekarang • Meningkatkan konsumsi masa depan • Ada resiko di dalamnya • Pendidikan sebagai Human Capital • Meningkatakan produktifitas Dwini Handayani

10. 1. Human Capital Theory • Pendidikan sering digunakan sebagai “signal” dari productivitas • Pendidikan sering digunakan sebagai “screening device” untuk mengidentifikasi pekerja dengan produktifitas yang tinggi Dwini Handayani

11. 2. Investasi Sumber Daya Manusia • Jadi upah merupakan fungsi investasi human capital masa lalu • Berapa besar investasi human capital yang dipilih ? Dwini Handayani

12. 2. Investasi Sumber Daya Manusia Keputusan yang diambil individu ketika: MB pendidikan = MC bersekolah Marginal benefit yaitu tambahan keuntungan bila akan dilakukan tambahan investasi pendidikan (present value upah yang akan diterima sepanjang hidupnya) Marginal cost tambahan biaya akibat dilakukannya tambahan investasi Dwini Handayani

13. MB=MC Marginal benefit: • Diminishing returns to education investment • Peningkatan opportunity cost Marginal Cost: Increasing to education investment Dwini Handayani

14. MB=MC RoR, MC MC MB MB Gambar 1 Dwini Handayani

15. 3. Demand and Supply for Human Capital Investment Keputusan investasi pendidikan, adalah ketika MB=MC Supply bersekolah ditentukan juga oleh oppotunity untuk membiayai pendidikan Demand bersekolah ditentukan juga oleh ability individu tersebut sendiri. Dwini Handayani

16. 3. Demand and Supply for Human Capital Investment RoR, MC S schooling D schooling Years of schooling Gambar 1 Dwini Handayani

17. Demand and Supply for Human Capital Investment RoR, MC S schooling D schooling Years of schooling Gambar 2 Dwini Handayani

18. Demand and Supply for Human Capital Investment RoR, MC S schooling D schooling Years of schooling Gambar 3 Dwini Handayani

19. Demand and Supply for Human Capital Investment • Tiap orang menghadapi S curve yang berbeda • tergantung opportunity-nya untuk membiayai pendidikannya • Demand for education • Kemampuannya untuk belajar • Gambar 2, S sama, D yang berbeda • Gambar 3, ability sama, tetapi S berbeda, artinya, kemampuan untuk membiayai beda • S kanan, mampu bayar lebih besar dibandingkan kiri. • Yang memiliki S kanan, memiliki willingness to forego todays consumption for future consumption besar Dwini Handayani

20. Demand and Supply for Human Capital Investment • Apa yang menentukan Demand dan Supply ? • Yaitu karakteristik background spt: • Wealth, parental education, innitiate abbility dll • MC dan perbedaan ability menyebabkan: Perbedaan education, menyebabkan Perbedaan earnings dalam masyarakat Dwini Handayani

21. Wealth Maximization Model • Ben Porath (1967) menggunakan fungsi Human Capital Production (fs produksi sumber daya manusia) • Dasar: • Individu akan berusaha mendapatkan kekayaan yang maksimum sepanjang hidupnya • Asumsi: • Supply Labor fixed sepanjang waktu • Stock human capital, depreciates Dwini Handayani

22. Wealth Maximization Model • Pekerja akan mengalokasi waktu dan kegiatannya untuk bekerja dan bersekolah/mengikuti training • Education dan training menghasilkan • Stock human capital • Akan meningkatkan produktivitas • Marginal productivity of labor naik tetapi pada satu titik akan menurun (naik but in diminishing rate) Dwini Handayani

23. Wealth Maximization Model Human Capital Upah, HC Upah Bekerja+training/sekolah Sekolah saja Umur, t Dwini Handayani

24. Wealth Maximization Model Implikasi asumsi • Kapan waktu yang tepat untuk bersekolah ? Dwini Handayani

25. Wealth Maximization Model Implikasi asumsi • Kapan waktu yang tepat untuk bersekolah ? • Usia muda, karena benefit=PV total expectasi future income, kalo sudah tua, sisa masa kerja pendek, benefit lebih rendah • Earning profile, naik tajam saat muda tetapi melandai atau menurun setelah usia tertentu Dwini Handayani

26. Mincerian Earning Function Upah digunakan sebagai proxy return pendidikan Rate of return: • Private ROR • Social ROR Private Cost • Direct cost: tuition, books, uniform, transportation cost • Indirect cost: foregone earnings Dwini Handayani

27. Mincerian Earning Function Social cost: • Direct cost, gaji guru, pengeluaran pemerintah untuk pendidikan (gendung) • Indirect cost: foregone tax Benefit • Private, kenaikan penghasilan di masa depan • Social, externalitas positif Dwini Handayani

28. Mincerian Earning Function • Social benefit = private benefit +public benefit Apa saja Social Benefit, eksternalitas positif dari pendidikan ? • Penurunan kriminalitas • Peningkatan derajat kesehatan • Poverty reduction • Teknologi/inovasi baru • Intergenerational benefit (ingat background mempengaruhi keputusan bersekolah) Dwini Handayani

29. Mincerian Earning Function Pendidikan dan Perempuan: • Peningkatan UKP • Penurunan Fertilitas • Menyadari Kualitas >kuantitas anak • Nutrisi keluarga • Pendidikan bagi anak Dwini Handayani

30. Types of Social Returns • Spillover or externality impacts (Moretti; Hill et al.) more degreed individuals in a regional economy  higher wages for everyone because productivity goes up, technology development and adoption increase, and positive feedback loops put the region on a faster growth track • Non-monetized benefits – less crime, more civic participation, lower dependence on safety nets, better health outcomes, more charitable giving

31. Moretti’s externality study • Cross sectional data from 282 cities at three points in time (Census years) with lots of control variables to take into account many potential competing explanations, PLUS a longitudinal study of 6,791 individuals from 201 cities • Results, consistent across both bodies of data, suggest that a 1% increase in college grads in a city result in wage increases of: • 1.9% for workers who did not graduate from high school • 1.6% for high school grads in the city • 0.4% for college grads

32. Crime • Lochner & Moretti (2003) study uses multiple data sets and carefully designed statistical analyses to explore the relationship between education and crime • Findings: • 1% increase in high school graduation rates nationally would save $1.4 billion, about $2100 per high school graduate • This social return is 14-26% of the private return to the high school graduates, or $53 to 100 billion • Authors compare these benefits to 1990 average national cost of a year of high school of $6,000

33. Early Childhood Interventions • Reynolds et al. (2003) longitudinal study in Chicago claims a $7.14 benefit to society for every $1 invested in an 18 year longitudinal study of children in Chicago Child Parent Centers (n=989) vs. a comparison group (n=550) • Chicago Child Parent Centers emphasize early intervention, parent involvement, structured language/basic skills learning, health and social services, and program continuity into early school years • Benefits include stronger parental support, lower juvenile delinquency and greater educational achievement by age 21; dollar estimates came from costing out lower justice system and remedial education costs

34. Early Childhood Interventions • Rolnick and Grunewald report on the Perry Pre-School program in Ypsilanti, MI • Outcomes for 123 children in pre-school program, relative to a comparison group • Perry Pre-School participants were: • more likely to graduate from high school, • more likely to earn more than $2,000 per month, and • less likely to have been incarcerated as of age 27; • Rolnick and Grunewald calculate a 16% real rate of return on investment, with most of the benefits going to the public at large (e.g., lower justice system costs)

35. Early Childhood Interventions • Lynch (2004) provides cost estimates for a national pre-school program for all 3-4 year olds in poor families • Estimated cost $20B in first year and tapering off thereafter as savings kick in (children do better in school; later on less crime, more employment in well paying jobs and less use of social assistance) • New tax revenues would offset costs by year 17

36. Mincerian Earning Function Social Rate of return sulit komponennya sulit dimoneterisasi, maka sering underestimated • Dilema: investasi ke sektor pendidikan yang returnnya baru dirasa di masa depan vs investasi sektor produksi Dwini Handayani

37. Voluminous literature on RofR to Education in Many Countries Psacharopoulos & Patrinos (2004) review studies from 73 countries “Social” return in this figure just takes into account public investments in education Spillover, or externality effects are discussed but no estimates of these effects are provided

38. Mincerian Earning Function Kembali ke Model Mincer u ROR • Asumsi: • Individu pilih level of schooling yang memaksimalkan PV lifetime earnings • Variabel cost of schooling= forgone earnings saja (out of pocket expenses tidak dihitung) • Mincerian Earning Fn, hedonic price equation, • Earnings fn dari kualitas(quality atribute) Dwini Handayani

39. Mincerian Earning Function Persamaan : Ln Y= bo + b1S + b2A + b3A2 Dimana bo= ln Wo= log wage tanpa education b1= ROR B2, b3 = ROR expirience Dwini Handayani

40. Mincerian Earning Function Mincer menggunkan data USA tahun 1959, hasilnya: Ln(earnings) = 6.2 + 0.10 S + 0.018 E – 0.0012 E2 R2=0.285 ROR schooling 10%, saat itu sama dengan tingkat bunga komersial Penambahan pegalaman 1 tahun meningkatkan earnings sebesar 18% tetapi Pengalaman kuadrat negatif artinya, over time kenaikan ror pengalaman menurun Dwini Handayani

41. Rate of Return Dwini Handayani

42. Upah per jam, Portugal, 1982-1998 Dwini Handayani

43. Earning Profile, USA tahun2003 Dwini Handayani

44. Dwini Handayani

45. Mincerian Earning Function (Psacharopopulus) Private Returns by Country and Level of Schooling Dwini Handayani

46. Mincerian Earning Function(Psacharopopulus) Social Returns by Country and Level of Schooling Dwini Handayani

47. Estimasi ROR • Temuan Psacharopoupulus: • Return pendidikan primer paling tinggi, why ? (ingat makin tinggi pendidikan, cost naik) • Private returns > social returns • Ror investasi pendidikan di NSB diatas 10% (World Development Report 1981) • ROR di NSB lebih tinggi dibandingkan di Neg maju, why ? • Over-education Dwini Handayani

48. International evidenceCross Country Evidence on the Returns to Schooling Source: Harmon, Westergard-Nielsen and Walker, Education and earnings in Europe: A cross country analysis of the returns to education, 2001

50. Rates of return for Tertiary and Upper-Secondary Education MALES (1999-2000)