Anatomy of a Disaster: Planning for and Responding to Long-Term Power Outages

1. Anatomy of a Disaster:Planning for and Responding toLong-Term Power Outages Oklahoma Ice Storms: A Rural Perspective A presentation for the Wisconsin Emergency Managers Association – October 29, 2008 Sidney K. Sperry – Director of Public Relations, Communications & Research Oklahoma Association of Electric Cooperatives – Oklahoma City, OK

2. A brief history… • A total of 30 electric cooperatives in Oklahoma. • 28 Distribution; 2 generation/transmission systems. • Only utility entity that has infrastructure in and provides service to all 77 counties in Oklahoma. • More than 102,000 miles of electric distribution line, and nearly 10,000 miles of transmission line. • Provide electric service to nearly 500,000 meters; serve 24 percent of the state’s residential accounts. • Over $2 billion in distribution utility infrastructure. • Average Density: 4.8 consumers per mile of line.

3. Long history of natural disasters… • Fourth highest number of FEMA declared disasters in U.S. behind only Texas, California and Florida. • Of 59 declared disasters since 1955: • 51 were for ‘Severe Storms, Tornadoes and Flooding;’ • 7 were for ‘Ice Storms’ or ‘Severe Winter Storms;’ • 1 was for the April,1995, Murrah Building bombing; • 33 Fire Management Assistance declarations since 2003 NOTE: All 7 ice storm or winter storm declarations have occurred since December, 2000.

4. Significant Oklahoma Ice Storms… • December 25-27, 2000 (Sperry-Piltz Level 4) • January 28-30, 2002 (Sperry-Piltz Level 5) • December 3, 2002 (Sperry-Piltz Level 5) • December 18-20 & 28-29, 2006 (Sperry-Piltz Level 5) • January 12-15, 2007 (Sperry-Piltz Level 5) • December 8-11, 2007 (Sperry-Piltz Level 5)

5. Trends? Large footprints, high costs! • December, 2000 ice storm: 64 of 77 counties were affected; 27 fatalities, more than 170,000 without power for at least two to three weeks, property damage in excess of $170 million. 2” to 3” of ice. • January, 2002 ice storm: 45 of 77 counties were affected; for rural Oklahoma, the ‘Mother of all ice storms.’ More than 255,000 without power, some for up to 38 days; more than 35,000 electric distribution line and 1,050 transmission line structures owned by Co-ops were destroyed in this storm. $200 million in damages; 2” to 3” of ice.

8. 2007: Bad beginning, worse ending! • January 12-15: Catastrophic damage in eastern OK with ice accumulations up to 2.5 inches; 32 fatalities linked to this storm. More than 120,000 without power, some for nearly three weeks. Total damage in excess of $75 million over 50 counties. • December 8-11: Worst power outage in Oklahoma history – the ‘Mother of all ice storms’ for urban utilities! More than 641,000 electric customers out of power, some for up to three weeks. 27 fatalities; $250 million in damages & clean up costs. ‘Urban Corridor’ of I-35 & I-44 hard hit with 1”- 2” of ice.

11. Planning and Responding to Disastersin Rural Areas: Multiple Challenges! • Diversity and difficulty of geographic terrain; • Vast amounts of infrastructure required in order to serve relatively few consumers per mile of line (4.8 meters per mile for Electric Co-ops compared to about 32 meters per mile for IOUs, and more than 50 meters per mile for Municipally-owned electric systems in Oklahoma); • Mutual Aid Agreements with all Electric Co-ops in state, with surrounding states and nationwide; • Extreme weather conditions possible year-round.

12. The Quest for “Real-Time”Weather Data & Advanced Forecasting: • “The further backward you look, the further forward you can see.” – Sir Winston Churchill • While historical weather trends were still needed, the advent of a ‘de-regulated’ electric utility marketplace in the mid-1990s necessitated the requirement for ‘real-time’ weather information. • “You can’t move fast if you are following a herd of sacred cows.” – Larry Curliss, Countrymark Co-op • Co-ops needed real-time data to improve reliability, enhance outage response times and improve safety.

13. 1998:Co-ops begin utilizing the “MESONET!” • The Oklahoma MESONET is a system designed to measure the environment at the size and duration of mesoscale weather events (from 1 to 150 miles); • World-class network of environmental monitoring stations, designed and implemented by scientists at the University of Oklahoma, Norman, and at Oklahoma State University, Stillwater; • Consists of 110 automated reporting stations, with at least one MESONET station in each county; • Observations every 5 minutes, 24 hrs., 365 days/yr.

14. What to do with all that DATA? • Electric Cooperatives asked the Oklahoma Climatological Survey (OCS) for development of an “Electric Utilities Decision-Support” webpage in 1999; trained dispatch personnel in same year. • “Real-time” weather data is analyzed, interpreted and graphically displayed on the webpage, along with access to 9 separate real-time radar displays. • Allowed advanced planning and preparation by Co-ops for major storm events; also let Co-ops be ‘proactive’ rather than ‘reactive’ to weather events.

16. Temperature bands chart – potential icing predictability graphic. Graphic used with permission of the Oklahoma Climatological Survey.

17. Storm Total Rainfall Graphic from Electric Utilities Webpage. Graphic used with permission of the Oklahoma Climatological Survey.

18. Impact Map and “Ice Storm Footprint” Map made possible by utilizing OCS and MESONET decision-support weather products. Denotes electric cooperative service areas impacted by January 29-30, 2002, ice storm. Graphic used with permission of the Oklahoma Climatological Survey and OAEC.

19. Lessons learned from multiple ice storms… • Disaster planning and advanced coordination with multiple response agencies is absolutely critical. • Response and repair efforts in rural areas are often driven by access to roads, bridges, highways, etc. Utility operations managers should meet with local county commissioners and emergency managers to reach better understandings of each others role in a major disaster or long-term power outage situation. • Communication is KEY: know the expectations in advance, and execute a response plan accordingly. Everyone should be on the same page!

20. What a rural utility should communicate: • Pre-Disaster:1) Meet with county commissioners and emergency managers to discuss disaster response plans and mutual assistance needs; 2) Share maps and listings of critical infrastructures (power plants, substations, switching facilities, transmission routes and main distribution feeder circuits, etc.); 3) Have an “Emergency Access Plan” or “Memorandum of Understanding” that addresses clearing of roads or highways that are critical transportation routes for responding repair crews, vendors/suppliers, etc; 4) Share ‘life support list’ (with permissions); and, 5) Coordinate list of public shelters, emergency fueling facilities (w/backup generators), and list of aid resources for citizens (Red Cross, Salvation Army, 211, etc.)

21. What a rural utility should communicate: Continued… • During the Disaster: 1) Safety is highest priority; work with emergency response officials to keep both the general public and incoming repair crews informed of known areas of damage; 2) Complete preliminary damage surveys and repair assessments as quickly and as accurately as possible, reporting early estimates of damage and repair duration times to local and state emergency response agencies; and 3) Keep outage information updated at least twice daily, using automated message systems, websites, radio/TV announcements, even snail mail to homes.

22. What a rural utility should communicate: Continued… • Post-Disaster: 1) Keep local, state and federal emergency management officials informed of areas where repair, re-construction, or re-build will be taking place; 2) Meet with all disaster response entities following the “emergency period” to review and assess “Best Practices,” i.e., what worked and what didn’t work during the disaster and subsequent response effort; 3) Revise and update response plans based on the above review process; and, 4) Conduct additional joint training exercises with all emergency response & recovery agencies.

23. What rural utilities need from others: • 1) Lists of available hotels, motels, civic centers, school auditoriums or gymnasiums, fairgrounds or church camps or recreational facilities, or any other housing units that could possibly be used to accommodate disaster response crews, both Co-op and contractor alike. • 2) Resource lists (a ‘211 service’) for food service, toilet and shower services, emergency fuel and vehicle repair services, public shelters, and of course, a complete list of hospitals or emergency medical and/or trauma care facilities in the area.

24. What rural utilities need from others:Continued… • 3) Lists of available dozer or heavy equipment operators and services in the immediate area; • 4) Maps with known road closures and known bridge closures (or known weak bridges to avoid); • 5) Backup telecommunications providers or emergency radio repair services available in the area (a list of satellite phone providers is helpful), along with lists of all amateur radio (HAM) radio operators; • 6) List of all current “emergency contacts,” by agency, with updated office, home, and cell phone numbers, along with current e-mail addresses.

25. What rural utilities need from others:Continued… • 7) List of all area law enforcement agencies or private security services to assist with office and/or infrastructure security and protection. • Lastly, rural utilities need your patience, and your assistance in reassuring the general public that every effort is being made by the utility to restore power as safely, effectively and expeditiously as possible. NOTE: In a prolonged electrical outage, when customers may be out of power for 7 – 10 days or longer, their patience begins to wear THIN!

26. Taking the next step: Advance Forecasting Ice Accumulation Models • While ‘Winter Weather Alerts’ and ‘Ice Storm Warnings’ were made possible through use of the Electric Utilities webpage (using info from OCS), multiple ice storm occurrences over the past eight years necessitated development of more advanced and sophisticated “predictability” algorithms. • OCS, the National Weather Service, and OAEC teamed up to develop the “Sperry-Piltz Ice Index,” or “SPI Index.” (Sid Sperry, OAEC; Steve Piltz, NWS-Tulsa) • Beta tests, January 2007; Refined December 2007.

27. Development and Testing of an Ice Accumulation Algorithm: The SPI Index • Using experiences from previous ice storms, Sid Sperry, OAEC, and Steve Piltz, Warning Coordinator for the National Weather Service in Tulsa, developed an ‘ice accumulation algorithm’ and subsequent ‘utility damage index’ to predict both the location and severity of ice accumulations (72 to 96 hours in advance), and to ‘classify’ potential electric utility system damage in an Enhanced Fujita Scale-like manner, enabling early warnings of major ice storms to electric utilities and other entities, such as DOT, EMs, schools, etc.

28. The Sperry-Piltz Utility Ice Damage Index, or “SPI Index” ICE INDEX RADIAL ICE AMOUNT (inches) WIND (mph) DAMAGE AND IMPACT DESCRIPTIONS < 0.25 15 - 25 1 Some localized utility interruptions possible, typically lasting only 1 or 2 hours maximum. 0.25 – 0.50 < 10 < 0.25 > = 25 2 Scattered utility interruptions expected, typically lasting less than 8 – 12 hours maximum. 0.25 – 0.50 15 - 25 0.50 – 1.00 < 10 0.25 – 0.50 > = 25 Numerous utility interruptions, with some damage to main feeder lines expected, with outages lasting from 1 to 5 days. 3 0.50 – 0.75 15 - 25 0.75 – 1.00 < 10 0.50 – 0.75 > = 25 Prolonged & widespread utility interruptions, with extensive damage to main distribution feeder lines and possibly some high voltage transmission lines. Outages lasting 5 – 10 days. 4 0.75 – 1.00 15 - 25 1.00 – 1.50 < 10 0.75 – 1.00 > = 25 Catastrophic damage to entire utility systems, including both distribution and transmission. Outages could last from 1 to several weeks in some areas. Shelters needed. 5 1.00 – 1.50 15 - 25 > 1.50 < 10 (Categories of damage are based upon combinations of precipitation totals, temperatures and wind speeds.)

31. How will use of the SPI Index allow Co-ops and other entities to be better prepared? • Advanced targeting of areas likely to receive heavy damage, with concentration of repair/reconstruction resources in zones with highest vulnerabilities. • Pre-positioning of crews & advanced coordination with County Commissioners, Emergency Managers and State Emergency Management officials, as well as with Mutual Aid entities from across the state or multi-state region. • Advanced opportunity to coordinate materials and supplies purchases, deliveries and inventories. • Department of Transportation, Public Schools, and Emergency Managers statewide are very interested!

32. Questions?