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LiveDesign Quantification of Subjective Opinion in Mitigating Effects of Extreme Events

LiveDesign Quantification of Subjective Opinion in Mitigating Effects of Extreme Events. by Gautam Dasgupta, Professor, Civil Engineering Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA What is LiveDesign ? 1. Is it a software? 2. Is it a design concept?

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LiveDesign Quantification of Subjective Opinion in Mitigating Effects of Extreme Events

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  1. LiveDesignQuantification of Subjective Opinionin Mitigating Effects of Extreme Events by Gautam Dasgupta, Professor, Civil Engineering Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA What is LiveDesign? 1. Is it a software? 2. Is it a design concept? 3. What is a conventional design? 4. What are new contributions? Keywords: Intelligent infrastructure, extreme events, sensing and broadcast

  2. Design vs. LiveDesign • Conventional design and construction: • 1. Cost saving • 2. Engineering Calculations • LiveDesign • 1. Saving human life and minimizing human suffering • 2. Optimize performance using subjective experiences

  3. IT based LiveDesign • LiveDesign prototypes : • 1. Aid authorities after natural and manmade disasters • 2. Suggest best evacuation and rescue strategies • 3. Broadcast most favorable measures

  4. Statistical decision in LiveDesign • 1. High speed large scale computing • 2. Collection of subjective opinions • 3. Statistics for extreme events • Knowledge is continuously updated • Decision made in real time • Hence the name: LiveDesign.

  5. LiveDesign Research • 1. Background work from 2001 • (a) engineers • (b) architects • (c) computer scientists • (d) lawyers • 2. LiveDesign core methodology • 3. Randomly selected office building models • 4. Seamless open environment • --- 9/11, Tsunami, Katrina, Bird Flue ….. • 5. Intelligent civil infrastructures • (a) building, roads, bridges • (b) watersheds • (c) energy systems • 6. Natural and manmade disaster modules

  6. Principal parts of LiveDesign • Intelligent information acquisition (a) Engineering response data (numeric) (b) Sensor measurements (digital) (c) Bodies of laws and code requirements (textual) (d) Subjective opinion (imprecise) • 2. Statistical combination of above items • 3. Virtual reality-based smart signs : • (a) evacuation • (b) rescue • (c) management communication

  7. Quantitative and Qualitative Information in LiveDesign • Combine: • Structural stress analysis: response history • 2. Regulations (such as Building Codes) • 3. Legal requirements • 4. On-line sensor readings

  8. Fuzzy logic in LiveDesign • 1. Predicts threat from • statistical combination 2. Statistical optimization for the worst fatal state in space and time • 3. Calculations with confidence levels

  9. LiveDesignDataBase • 1. Dynamic searches • (a) signal fatal events • (b) check tight bounds for credible threats • (c) continuously fine-tune in a self-learning environment • 2. Sort out false alarms • 3. discover yet to be identified extreme events • 4. Simulate threats • (eg. use Keränen’s extremely rare strings)

  10. LiveDesign

  11. LiveDesignNetwork • Security costs depend nonlinearly on the associated payoff • 2. All indices can be assessed • only in the probabilistic sense • 3. Computer Algebra (symbolic) calculation: • (a) use joint probabilities • (b) uses graphical communication language • (c) use causality • 4. Current modeling procedure is written in Mathematica • 5. Mathematical basis is the graph theory

  12. Elements of the network • 1. The network formulation starts with elementary subsystems • 2. Modelica can create complex systems using the formal specifications of • the links in the LiveDesign database • 3. Benchmark examples have been verified using Mathematica:

  13. Large number of variables • Conveniently programmed in Mathematica.

  14. Many Extreme Values

  15. Chemistry and biology provides good analogies:experiments and theory go together in the ‘organic form of design.’ • There may be more than a single answer 2. Several outcomes possible with different probabilities 3. The fuzzy logic concepts give optimized answer

  16. LiveDesignrepresentation conept • 1. Architects create the LiveBluePrint • 2. A collection of its various parts, and then assembled. • 3. Modern buildings are more complicated: • (a) there are additional subsystems • (b) such as power, water, elevators • (c) and above all a security infrastructure

  17. Intelligent Infrastructureby LiveDesign • Smart structures respond to their surroundings Safety: Thermo-mechanical inputs • 2. Intelligent infrastructures • (a) Security (Safety concerns as subsets) • (c) Management/Government policy and laws • 3. Information based technology • (a) Integration of quantitative and qualitative data • (b) Computer understandable . representation/communications

  18. The LiveDesign Team • 1. Universities • (a) Columbia University • (b) MIT • (c) Carnegie Mellon University • (d) University of Maine • 2. Industries • (a) OKG Constructions, NYC • (b) Contour Graphics Architects, NYC • (c) Serby Attorneys, NYC • 3. Foreign collaborators • (a) Kagawa University, Japan • (b) Tokyo Metropolitan University, Japan • (c) Paris & Besancon, France; AIT Thailand,

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