Correlation Doesn’t Equal Causality

1. What Our Community Needs to Know about Behavioral Science: Examples from Parents of Autistic Children Dr. Morton Ann Gernsbacher Vilas Research Professor Sir Frederic C. Bartlett Professor of Psychology

22. Correlation Doesn’t Equal Causality An N of 1 is an N of 1 Two Data Points Make a Line … But Not a Trend

23. Correlation Doesn’t Equal Causality An N of 1 is an N of 1 Two Data Points Make a Line … But Not a Trend

24. Correlation Doesn’t Equal Causality • the number of churches within a city’s limits and the number of bars

25. Correlation Doesn’t Equal Causality • the number of storks in western European villages and the number of births

26. Correlation Doesn’t Equal Causality • milk intake during childhood and subsequent heroin addiction

27. Correlation Doesn’t Equal Causality • childhood vaccines and occurrence of autism

28. MMR vaccine and autism • MMR vaccine typically around 12 mos - 18 mos • first signs of autism observed 12 mos - 18 mos

29. THE LANCET 28 February 1998 Wakefield AJ, Murch SH, Anthony A, Linnel J, Casson DM, Malik M, et al.

30. FINDINGS: Onset of behavioural symptoms was associated, by the parents, with measles, mumps, and rubella vaccination in eight of the 12 children, with measles infection in one child, and otitis media in another.

31. Wednesday, 19 December, 2001 Blair stays mum on Leo and MMR

32. vaccinationnews.org “Thousands of parents believe that the MMR vaccine has contributed to their children’s autism. They have pictures and videos to prove the ‘before’ and ‘after.’”

33. MMR vaccine and autism • MMR vaccine typically around 12 mos - 18 mos • first signs of autism observed 12 mos - 18 mos

34. Use of thimerasol in vaccine and autism • number of vaccines has been increasing • prevalence of autism has been increasing

35. Scotland’s Award Winning Newspaper 06 January 2002 Autism figures soar in America Increase blamed on vaccination programme

36. Dr Ed Yazbak, a retired American paediatrician, insists that the increase [in autism] is real and argues that this can only be attributed to environ-mental factors.

37. “[Autism] is certainly not genetic because [the first observation of autistic symptoms] happens in the second year of life.”

39. Correlation Doesn’t Equal Causality An N of 1 is an N of 1

40. October 14, 1998 A Cure for Autism? Victoria Beck Parker Beck

41. Secretin Polypeptide Hormone Duodenal Mucosa Pigs Increase Secretion of Pancreas Test Exocrine Function

42. March, 1999 New Hampshire Mother Overrode Doubts on New Use of Old Drug

43. Autism Research Review International, Spring 1999 “somewhere around 2,500 and 3,500 autistic children (and a few adults) have been given secretin by perhaps 200 to 250 physicians around the U. S.”

44. April 16, 1999 Letter to the Editor

45. homepages.apci.net/~asosi/secretin.htm Secretin Therapy At this time ASOSI will not publish any information about Secretin Therapy because of the nature and sensitivity of the subject. However, there are plenty of other organizations with links and information.

46. www.asw4autism.org/secretin.htm Secretin This page has been removed from the ASW website.

47. www.autism.com/ari/secretin.html Not Found The requested URL /ari/secretin.html was not found on this server.

48. www.autism-society.org/secretin.html Not Found The requested URL /secretin.html was not found on this server.

49. www.secretin.com Not Found The requested URL was not found on this server.

50. We Cured Our Son’s Autism SIDS Alert Picky Eater? Baby #2?