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Ground Flash Fraction Retrieval Algorithm GLM Science Meeting Huntsville, AL September 24, 2013

Ground Flash Fraction Retrieval Algorithm GLM Science Meeting Huntsville, AL September 24, 2013 Dr. William Koshak, NASA-Marshall Space Flight Center Dr. Richard Solakiewicz, Chicago State University. Summary of Main Advances. Mathematical Advances to Analytic Perturbation Method

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Ground Flash Fraction Retrieval Algorithm GLM Science Meeting Huntsville, AL September 24, 2013

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  1. Ground Flash Fraction Retrieval Algorithm GLM Science Meeting Huntsville, AL September 24, 2013 Dr. William Koshak, NASA-Marshall Space Flight Center Dr. Richard Solakiewicz, Chicago State University

  2. Summary of Main Advances • Mathematical Advances to Analytic Perturbation Method • Derived closed form solution for ground flash fraction … no numerical scanning of H function. • Derived explicit analytic forms for the perturbation vectors. • Derived a way to determine flash type of specific flashes. • APM Error Analysis Completed Via Simulations • DEMO Completed • Journal Paper Completed & Ready for Submission (JTECH)

  3. MIX Instrument Observes N MGAs. Invert this Distribution to Find Ground Flash Fraction α

  4. APM SOLUTION PROCESS (truth) (model)

  5. APM SOLUTION SUMMARY PERTURBATION GIVES: PROBABILITY FLASH, HAVING MGA = x, IS A GROUND FLASH:

  6. Simulate Population from OTD Data (Flash Type Categorized by NLDN)

  7. Simulate Population from LIS Data (Flash Type Categorized by NLDN)

  8. EFFECT OF RANDOM ERROR (a = g, b = c) 16 km2 8 km2 NONE 32 km2 64 km2

  9. EFFECT OF RANDOM ERROR (a and b from method) 16 km2 8 km2 NONE 32 km2 64 km2

  10. EFFECT OF SYSTEMATIC ERROR (a = g, b = c) 16 km2 8 km2 NONE -8 km2 -16 km2 DIGITAL (16 km2 finite footprint)

  11. EFFECT OF SYSTEMATIC ERROR (a and b from method) 16 km2 8 km2 NONE -8 km2 -16 km2 DIGITAL (16 km2 finite footprint)

  12. EFFECT OF CLIMATOLOGY SAMPLE SIZE Ng = 5,000 Nc = 5,000 Ng = 40,000 Nc = 120,000 Ng = 10,000 Nc = 30,000 Ng = 1,000 Nc = 1,000 Ng = 500 Nc = 500 Ng = 200 Nc = 200

  13. EFFECT OF OBSERVATION SAMPLE SIZE N N = 7,500 N = 5,000 N = 2,500 N = 500 N = 1,000

  14. NOMINAL (LIS data) Mean Error = 0.027 Std = 0.022 # Observations: N = 5000 # in Climate Sampling: Ng = 40,000 Nc = 120,000 Instr. Measurement Error: Random = ±32 km2 Systematic = 16 km2 digital gpop mean = 465.4 km2 cpop mean = 251.9 km2 difference = 213.5 km2

  15. NOMINAL (OTD data) Mean Error = 0.018 Std = 0.014 # Observations: N = 5000 # in Climate Sampling: Ng = 40,000 Nc = 120,000 Instr. Measurement Error: Random = ±128 km2 Systematic = 64 km2 digital gpop mean = 493.0 km2 cpop mean = 215.6 km2 difference = 277.4 km2

  16. CAN HANDLE ARBITRARY DISTRIBUTIONS (AS USUAL, CG & IC DISTRIBUTIONS NEED TO BE DISTINCT)

  17. PERFORMANCE OF SPECIFIC FLASH TYPING Mean Fraction Correct = 0.780 Std = 0.131 Mean Fraction Correct = 0.797 Std = 0.119 LIS data OTD data

  18. FUNCTIONAL DEMO NOW EXISTS

  19. Thank You

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