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GEMS RG Global reactive gases monitoring and forecast subproject

GEMS RG Global reactive gases monitoring and forecast subproject. Lead: Guy Brasseur, MPI Hamburg. „... Four times daily three-dimensional global distributions with a horizontal resolution of 50km“ „providing initial and boundary conditions for regional air quality models“

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GEMS RG Global reactive gases monitoring and forecast subproject

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  1. GEMS RGGlobal reactive gases monitoring and forecast subproject Lead: Guy Brasseur, MPI Hamburg Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003

  2. „... Four times daily three-dimensional global distributions with a horizontal resolution of 50km“ „providing initial and boundary conditions for regional air quality models“ „modes and magnitudes of intercontinental pollution transport“ „magnitude and location of STE ozone transport“ Image from FourmilabEarth Viewer Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003

  3. Prediction vs. Monitoring Forecast: • daily • seasonal Extreme events vs. accumulated exposure Monitoring: • Policy evaluation • Climate Change Accuracy and stability Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003

  4. A. Stohl, CO tracer prediction 27.5.2003 Meteosat visible image NAAPS smoke prediction Air pollution is global! Smoke from fires in Siberiaclearly visible on satellite image. Once around the world in 10 days! Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003

  5. Variability ofSurface Ozone Concentrations(Monitoring needs long-term perspective) Meteorology(May 1993 – May 1997) Emissions(Fossil fuel 1995-1990) Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003

  6. Sub project elements • Data assimilation (UARS, AIRS, MIPAS, SCIAMACHY, GOMOS, SEVIRI, OMI, TES) – whole atmosphere columns, tropospheric columns, OT/LS layers • CTM simulations (MOZART, ARPEGE, TM5) • Integration/Validation • Provision of boundary conditions Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003

  7. Contribution of KNMI to Reactive Gases (1) • Experience with ozone data assimilation at KNMI - Operational ozone assimilation (since 2000) - Ozone and UV forecasting - Reanalysis - 7 years GOME data set - Radiance assimilation • Improved ozone retrievals for UV-Vis spectrometers - GOME - SCIAMACHY - OMI - GOME 2 (25 y) - Column, profile; nadir, limb

  8. Contribution of KNMI to Reactive Gases (2) • Near-real-time delivery of ozone data - GOME (SCIAMACHY ?) - OMI (launch 2004, follow-up of TOMS) - High resolution - 13*24 km - Global coverage in 1 day • Minor trace-gas retrievals from UV-Vis - Tropospheric (stratospheric) NO2: Observation operator, detailed error estimates OMI - high resolution

  9. Contribution of KNMI to Reactive Gases (3) • Dutch TM5 CTM with regional zoom capability - Use of ECMWF meteorological fields to drive CTM - Tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry - Chemistry parametrizations (ozone, methane) - Experience with couplers (PRISM project)

  10. The MOZART-2 Chemistry Transport Model • State-of-the-art CTM including 65 chemical species and ~170 reactions • Online version coupled to ECHAM GCM almost ready • Soon full coupling to multi-modal aerosol scheme • „Whole atmosphere“ (0-250 km) version available Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003

  11. Chemical Weather with MOZART • Script chain in place to perform monthly run almost automatically • Run from April 2000 – September 2003 available • Postprocessing and web interface need to be developed • Validation in progress Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003

  12. Time Evolution of Vertical O3 Profiles over Lindenberg, Germany, Sep. 2002 Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003

  13. Time Evolution of Vertical CO Profiles over Lindenberg, Germany, Sep. 2002 Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003

  14. Freiburg Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003

  15. Niederzier Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003

  16. Issues • Near realtime emission data (in particular biomass burning) • Vertical distribution of assimilated columns • Interference of multi-species column assimilation on chemistry (thus forecasts) • What boundary conditions are required by RegAQ? • Validation? • Consistency between RG and aerosols (to what degree and when?) Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003

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