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Section 2 Executive Overview

Section 2 Executive Overview. Topics. Why forecast air quality? What is needed? About the course. Why forecast air quality?. Pollutants originate from Combustion of fossil fuels and organic matter

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Section 2 Executive Overview

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  1. Section 2Executive Overview

  2. Topics • Why forecast air quality? • What is needed? • About the course Section 2 – Executive Overview

  3. Why forecast air quality? • Pollutants originate from • Combustion of fossil fuels and organic matter • Evaporation of petroleum products or compounds used in commercial products, services, and manufacturing • Natural production of smoke from fires, dust from strong winds, and emissions from the biosphere and geosphere Section 2 – Executive Overview

  4. Why forecast air quality? • World Health Organization: • Every year 1.5 billion urbanites breathe air that exceeds WHO standards; • Well over 800,000 deaths each year due to urban air pollution; • Costs: • World health costs of urban air pollution are estimated to approach US$1 billion per year. • In developing countries the health effects of air pollution cost between 5% - 20% of GDP. Section 2 – Executive Overview

  5. Why forecast air quality? • Pollutants of concern • Pollutant • Abbreviation • Carbon Monoxide • CO • Sulfur Dioxide • SO2 • Ozone • O3 • Nitrogen Dioxide • NO2 • Hydrocarbon Compounds • HC • Particulate Matter • PM Section 2 – Executive Overview

  6. Why forecast air quality? • Health Effects: • Deaths associated with PM concentrations Schwartz et al., 1992 Section 2 – Executive Overview

  7. Concentration (mg/g) Jan-Mar 1986 (open) Jan-Mar 1987 (closed) Jan-Mar 1988 (open) Iron 107.2 50.2 117.8 Copper 163.3 50.5 327.0 Zinc 264.8 95.5 113.2 Lead 91.7 30.5 122.2 Nickel 18.6 26.9 18.6 Why forecast air quality? • Health Effects: • Geneva Steel Mill: The Utah Valley Section 2 – Executive Overview

  8. 80 150 Steel Mill Closed Steel Mill Closed 125 60 100 PM (mg/m3) Monthly Asthma Admissions 40 75 50 20 25 0 0 1985 1986 1987 1988 1985 1986 1987 1988 Why forecast air quality? • Health Effects: • Particulate Matter concentrations • Health: Monthly asthma admissions Section 2 – Executive Overview

  9. Why forecast air quality? • How are forecasts used: • Protect public health • Operate emissions reduction programs • Conduct special monitoring Section 2 – Executive Overview

  10. Good historical data set • Good understanding • Modest experience • Several forecasting tools/techniques • Higher accuracy • Excellent historical data set • Detailed understanding • Extensive experience • Many forecasting tools/techniques • Highest accuracy Evolution of a Forecasting Program Age of Forecasting Program (years) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+ • Limited data • Limited experience and understanding • One forecasting tool/technique • Modest accuracy Section 2 – Executive Overview

  11. What is needed? • 1. Air quality problem • Most large & mega cities have air pollution Section 2 – Executive Overview

  12. What is needed? • 2. Air quality monitoring program • Monitor network • Historical data • Real-time monitoring system Section 2 – Executive Overview

  13. What is needed? • 3. Understanding the interactions • Determine how meteorological processes influence air pollution in an area • Forecast the processes that affect air quality, then predict the air quality Section 2 – Executive Overview

  14. Ozone (Low–High) Temp high Temp low Moderate to High Moderate to Low WS - calm WS - strong WS -light WS - calm Low High Moderate Moderate What is needed? • 4. Develop forecasting methods • Simple to complex • Statistical, numerical models, experience • More tools = more accurate forecast Section 2 – Executive Overview

  15. Data Collection Develop a Program Operate the Program Forecast Preparation Need for an AQ Forecast Revise the Program Forecast Communication What is needed? • 5. Developing a program Section 2 – Executive Overview

  16. Overview of Course • Course Content: • Background • Introduction and Overview of Course • What Are We Forecasting? • How Are Forecasts Used? • Health Effects • Understanding • Chemical Aspects of Air Pollution • Pollutant Monitoring • Pollutant Lifecycles and Trends • Air Pollution Meteorology • Case Studies of Episodes • Developing a program • Air Quality Forecasting Tools • Developing a Forecasting Program • Daily Air Quality Forecast Operations Section 2 – Executive Overview

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