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FY08 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page Revised: 10/31/2007

FY08 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page Revised: 10/31/2007. Title : Improvement and Validation of Convective Initiation and Mesoscale Wind Applications Project Type : Product Development Proposal Status : Renewal (first start this year FY2007 - 40K) Duration : 2-years Leads:

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FY08 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page Revised: 10/31/2007

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  1. FY08 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title PageRevised: 10/31/2007 • Title: Improvement and Validation of Convective Initiation and Mesoscale Wind Applications • Project Type: Product Development Proposal • Status: Renewal (first start this year FY2007 - 40K) • Duration: 2-years • Leads: • Wayne Feltz/Kristopher Bedka • Other Participants: • Justin Sieglaff, Jay Hanna (NOAA/SAB), Local NWS offices

  2. 2. Project Summary • CIMSS has implemented experimental convective initiation (CI) and mesoscale wind algorithms using GOES-12 imager data at NOAA/NESDIS (SAB precipitation team) and is providing these products to local NWS (Sullivan and La Crosse) via AWIPS • Preliminary product feedback indicates time latency and false alarms from errant cloud tracking using meso winds need to be resolved, and night-time CI nowcasting capability needs to be developed • New convective initiation research is proposed to increase processing speed over large imager domain, decrease false alarms, and provide more spatially coherent product output using box-averaged cumulus properties • Relationships will be developed between box-averaged cloud top cooling rate and radar reflectivity accounting for parallax effect of GOES imagery • Develop and implement night-time CI nowcast logic

  3. 3. Motivation/Justification • Supports NOAA Mission Goal(s): Commerce and Transportation: Support the Nation's commerce with information for safe, efficient and environmentally sound transportation. Weather & Water: Serve society's needs for weather and water information. • Supports validation and transition of a new cooling rate and convective initiation methodology • GOES imager infrared cooling rate is indicating exact location of rapidly developing convection prior to detection of strong radar reflectivity • This information can be used by NWS forecasters, NESDIS SAB Hydrology, and by Aviation interested for short term forecasting of rapid convective development and monitoring continued strengthening • Methodology is currently only daytime, needs parallax correction and robust comparison to Doppler radar reflectivity is needed for validation

  4. 4. Methodology(Consult Supplemental Slides) • Parallax correction needs to be addressed to make cloud top cooling rate and convective initiation signal a viable nowcasting resource for operational NWS and FAA forecasters, we will explore the correction with several different approaches including just using standard atmosphere, a mean cloud top altitude, and also using NWP analysis • WSR-88D composite reflectivity will be remapped to parallax corrected cloud-top growth fields to determine relationships between current box-averaged cloud trends and future response within in the radar precipitation field • Although night-time convective cloud mask is not available using the 4 channel, 4 km GOES-12 IR imagery, night-time CI nowcast logic will use box-averaging using GOES cloud mask (i.e. binary cloud/no cloud) information

  5. 5. Summary of Previous Results • Aviation/Nowcasting start was in FY2007 (40K) • Primary results related to assisting NESDIS SAB analysts with implementation of GOES-imager based convective initiation algorithm and use feedback to improve products • Jay Hanna and Brian Hughes (NOAA NESDIS SAB) have implemented SATCAST algorithm with assistance from Kristopher Bedka (UW-CIMSS) and provided feedback from forecaster that FAR and POD need improvement • This has led to a new cloud-top cooling rate methodology which provides cleaner coherent cooling rate/CI fields but is still in test mode at UW-CIMSS • Convective cooling rate, mesoscale winds, and convective initiation products can now be viewed within AWIPS. Milwaukee, La Crosse, and Green Bay NWS offices are providing feedback about the mesoscale winds. Convective products are being monitored at UW-CIMSS until improvement of cooling rate and CI products are more strenuously validated. UW-CIMSS has given briefings to above NWS offices about the nowcasting/aviation research. • This funding provided a means to focus on transition to operations and specifically to investigate means to optimize methodology/software for improving temporal latency issues

  6. 6. Expected Outcomes • A parallax corrected convective cloud top cooling rate product that can be produced over larger geographic domains in near-real time with reduced false alarms and better spatial coherency in the cooling field • New product will be distributed to local NWS offices and NOAA/NESDIS SAB • Establish relationships between satellite-observed cloud top cooling rate and radar reflectivity trends • If correlation exists, cooling rate product can aid in forecasting flash flood potential for developing convection • A prototype night-time convective storm nowcast product which could identify rapidly developing convection using IR radiances and other satellite-derived cloud properties

  7. 7. Major Milestones • FY08 • Implement optimal parallax correction to products • Use validation study to improve cooling rate signal and reduce FAR • Prototype nocturnal convective cooling rate methodologies • Collaborate with NOAA SAB and local NWS office to provide iterative avenue for product improvement and future path to operations • FY09 • Establish relationship between GOES imager infrared cooling rate and radar reflectivity trends to provide possible parameterizations for flash flood guidance • Determine proper methodology to separate convective initiation from continued mature thunderstorm cooling • Provide incremental algorithm improvements to NOAA SAB as needed • Work with NOAA SAB to determine if product is candidate for PSDI research to operations funding and work to OSPD to familiarize with product • Submit peer reviewed paper

  8. 8. Funding Profile (K) • Summary of leveraged funding • GOES-R Risk Reduction CI/Turbulence: Primarily focusing on improvement and validation of new cooling rate methodology using 1-min GOES-12 and 5-min SEVIRI data and improvement of product using microphysical transition information offered by additional SEVIRI radiance channels. This GOES-R3 research does not focus on current GOES 15-min imagery and transition to current operations. Mountain wave turbulence feature detection is also part of this proposal in support of Aviation AWG activities

  9. 9. Expected Purchase Items • FY07 • (40K): STAR CIMSS Grant for 1 person at 40% time from Jan 07 - Dec 07 • Personnel support (including benefits, IT charges, overhead, etc): 40K • FY08 • (70K): STAR CIMSS Grant for 2 people (0.5 and 0.25) time from Jan 08 to Dec 08 • Personnel support (including benefits, IT charges, overhead, etc): 66K • Contracts: N/A • Software charges: N/A • Equipment: N/A • Travel (two Madison - DC trips) - 4K • FY09 • (75K): STAR CIMSS Grant for 2 people (0.5 and 0.25) from Jan 09 to Dec 09 • Personnel support (including benefits, IT charges, overhead, etc): 65K • Contracts: N/A • Software charges: N/A • Equipment: N/A • Travel (two Madison - DC trips) - 4K • Publication Charges - 6K

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