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KBC Group Company presentation Winter 2005. Web site: www.kbc.com Ticker codes: KBC BB (Bloomberg) KBKBT BR (Reuters). Contact information. Investor Relations Office Luc Cool Nele Kindt Marina Kanamori investor.relations@kbc.com Surf to www.kbc.com for the latest update.
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KBC Group Company presentationWinter 2005 Web site: www.kbc.comTicker codes: KBC BB (Bloomberg) KBKBT BR (Reuters)
Contact information Investor Relations OfficeLuc CoolNele KindtMarina Kanamoriinvestor.relations@kbc.com Surf to www.kbc.com for the latest update.
Important information • This presentation is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security • KBC believes that this presentation is reliable, although some information may be condensed or incomplete • This presentation contains forward-looking statements with respect to our earnings development involving assumptions and uncertainties. The risk exists that these statements may not be fulfilled and that future results differ materially. • By receiving this presentation, each investor is deemed to represent that it possesses sufficient expertise to understand the risks involved
Table of contents • Company profile • Strategy and earnings drivers • Financial highlights • Closing remarks on the equity valuation
Foto gebouw 1 Company profile
Market cap ranking in Euroland DJ Euro Stoxx Banksconstituents Data as at 14 Nov. 2005
Historic milestones 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Merger with parent company to simplify shareholder structure Start of CEE expansion Restructuring of Belgian business Leading presence in CEE-5 Improving profitability in CEE: -cross-selling- cost efficiency- cross-border synergies Creation of KBC (domestic merger in Belgium)
Shareholder structure Free float CERA/Almancora27.1% Free float47.3% MRBB11.6% Other committed shareholders 11.7% (own shares: 2.3%, including ESOP hedge) Shareholder identification as at 31 Dec. 2004(before merger with Almanij) Situation as at 30 Sept. 2005 • KBC is majority-owned by a group of committed shareholders, thereby providing continuity for the pursuit of long-term strategic goals • Core shareholders include the Cera/Almancora Group (co-operative investment company), a Belgian farmers’ association (MRBB) and a syndicate of industrialist families
Business portfolio • KBC is a top bancassurer and asset manager in Belgium and has successfully expanded its operations in CEE-5, its 2nd home market. • Recently, Private Banking (76 bn AUM) has become more of a key focus. The PB business was expanded to include a Western European network. • KBC is also active – be it rather selective – in commercial banking (mostly in W. Europe) and capital markets. Revenue -geographical breakdown(9M 2005) Selected other markets (mostly in W. Europe):- private banking- SME/corporate- capital markets CEE:- retail bancassurance- asset management- private banking- SME/corporate Belgium:- retail bancassurance- asset management- private banking- SME/corporate
KBC’s presence in CEE Other22% Retail 57% SME/Corp 21% 23% 2005 9M Share of business segments in gross income, CEE Banking CEE profit contribution to KBC Group
Total banking assets in CEE In million euros Source: S&P – figures as at 31 Dec. 2004
KBC’s European banking network Netherlands Ireland U.K. Germany Poland Belgium Czech Rep. Slovakia Luxembourg Hungary Switserland France Slovenia Italy Monaco Spain Situation as of 30-Sep
Solid financial track record Combined ratio, non-life Cost/income, banking In m EUR Return on equity Net profit growth In m EUR Pro forma figures, KBC Group (2003 figures are based on B-GAAP)
Foto gebouw 2 Strategy and earnings drivers
We build a solid future • Strategy headlines include: • Retail- and wealth-management-oriented, with focus on Belgium and CEE-5 and selected Western European markets • Further enhancement of efficiency (with emphasis on - but not exclusively in - CEE and European private banking) • Standalone basis (opportunistic operational alliances in certain areas to generate economies of scale, if needed) • Steady dividend growth and solid level of financial strength/solvency • “Execution is key”: • Primarily organic growth agenda in core markets • Committment to further enhance efficiency • Conservative risk culture Continuing to deliver a consistent financial performance: • ROE 16% • Double-digit EPS growth
We build a solid future • The solid ‘growth and value’ outlook is reflected in ambitious financial targets, valid until 2008:
Value drivers in Belgium: overview Do not underestimate market potential: KBC Group is well positioned: • Savings ratio amongst highest in the world (every year, ca. 15% of GDP flows into fin. assets) • Market highly receptive to cross-selling of AM & insurance, fueling strong growth trend in AM and life insurance business • Strong mortgage growth trend (ca. 10% per year) expected to continue, as residential property price levels are still below other European markets • After a temporary surge in price competition (late 2004/early 2005), price rationality is tending to be restored, epecially for interest-bearing products. • Fee rates for retail banking services only 50% of European average (gradual increase expected) • Credit quality has proven to be solid over the cycle • Top-3 market position, esp. strong in Northern region (one of the wealthiest regions in the EU) • Leading position in retail AM through innovative product offering (steadily increasing market share over the past 10 yrs.) • Still high cross-selling potential for insurance products and well-performing bancassurance distribution model • Well-diversified revenue structure (50% fee income) and further increase in fee income targeted (e.g., in SME segment) • Of the top players, level of customer satisfaction is high(est) • Further cost efficiency improvement potential, among other things, via co-sourcing of back offices with other banks
Mid-term financial outlook, Belgium * Related to parent-company operations only; excl. subsidiaries
Value drivers in CEE - overview Strong market-growth momentum: KBC Group is well positioned: • Nom. GDP growth in 2005-07 at 6.5% yearly, outgrowing EMU by 3-3.5% • Ongoing catch-up in product penetration – retail volumes growing at double-digit pace: • Mortgages: up 28% ytd (9M05) • AUM: up 33% ytd (9M05) • Written premiums, life: up 23% ytd (9M05) • Financial sector could grow five-fold if financial assets to GDP were to reach current levels of S. Europe • Solid market position in retail and corporate businesses with nationwide branch networks • Strong competitive position for enhancing cross-selling of asset management and insurance products and well positioned in HNWI and private-banking sectors through epb know-how • C/I still on the high side in several countries, inducing further improvement, e.g., by setting up cross-border platforms • Adequately provisioned balance sheets • Availability of capital within the Group for: • buy-out of third-party interests or selective bolt-on M&A • more aggressive organic growth in Poland since immediate M&A opportunies are not expected • Potential entry into new markets (e.g., Romania, Croatia)
Value drivers in CEE: bancassurance Cross-selling results are encouraging: Now the model is in place: • A unified management responsibility was put into place (joint management committee of bank and insurance company) • KBC’s bancassurance distribution model has been implemented and sales incentives and adequate sales approach for cross-selling set up • Know-how has been transferred and business processes and IT systems are being adequately streamlined = distinguishing factor vis-à-vis other CEE players
Value drivers in CEE: asset management KBC is well positioned: • Strong appetite for ‘risk-free’ investments in the market, fully in line with KBC’s core competencies and successful track record in Belgium for capital-guaranteed funds • Cost/AUM below average (around 15 bps vs. 20 bps for Europe) Results are encouraging: • In 9M05, AUM grew by 43% annualized. Continued high growth expected in coming years • Via the funds business, new customers are being recruited. Existing customers who use deposits to buy funds replenish their deposit accounts after one year
Dual brand strategy: ‘network-led’ vs. ‘independent boutique’ Growth drivers: network trade-up, extension of product offering and hiring of private bankers Value drivers in private banking Belgium W. Europe onshore W. Europe offshore CEE Business model: integrated private banking business in selected European markets focusing on clients with >€1m of investable assets. The network has been built over the past few years via separate acquisitions. Operations will now be further integrated. Total assets currently amount to 76bn (Sep-05) • Small today, but strong market growth expected (>15% p.a.) • Strengthening a network-led model, leveraging Belgian experience • Integrated network of local pure-play private banking brands (boutique style with strong status/heritage, esp. in Germany, Spain, Netherlands, UK) • Priority of reducing costs by creating synergies within a central ‘hub’ • Growth drivers: increased share of wallets, hiring of PB managers and opportunistic M&A • Low-growth market, focus on profitability (leveraging the hub) • If possible, steer repatriated assets to KBC onshore AUM 18 bn AUM 3bn AUM 27bn AUM 28 bn AUM expected to grow at 9% CAGR on an organic basis Opportunistic acquisitions may imply investments of 150-250 m per year
Mid-term financial outlook, private banking *14% Belgium, 15% CEE, 0% offshore and 10% W. Eur. onshore
Foto gebouw 3 9M 2005Financial highlights
Financial highlights - At a glance - Group financial performance - Headlines per segment FY 2005 profit outlook Foto gebouw
Profit trend, 3rd quarter 2005 Net profit m EUR • All major business units delivered excellent results in Q305, even though past Q3s have nearly always been weaker than other quarters (–30% q/q on avg.) • Profit in CEE was down somewhat q/q, despite higher banking income/lower costs, as credit losses returned to more ‘normalized low’ levels (these were almost zero in Q2) • Main drivers were: • Strong volume growth momentum, e.g.: • Mortgages +6% q/q • Life insurance reserves: +8% q/q (esp. unit-linked) • Assets under management: +6% q/q • Net positive impact of developments in interest rate and equity markets • Very low credit-risk provisioning
Profit trend, 9 months 2005 • Notes: • One-offs include the disinvestment loss at Agfa Gevaert (net bottom-line impact of –80 m) in Q2 2004, the income related to the settlement of a ‘historic’ loan (+68 m net) and the ‘non-recurring’ value gains on shares of Irish insurer FBD (+68 m net) in Q1 2005 . • All 2004 figures exclude impact of IAS 32/39 and IFRS 4
Highlights, 9 months 2005 • Net profit at 1.8 bn, up 53% y/y, generating a return on equity of 19% • Underlying profit (excl. main one-offs) growing at 32% • Strong business volume growth across our activities and geographies, generating strong commission income (+22%) and highly offsetting impact of flattened yield curve on net interest income • Profit from mark-to-market of financial instruments and capital gains realized on investments signifcantly lower than 2004 (though partly due to IFRS valuation rules) • Downtrend in expenses (-1 % y/y) - cost/income ratio (banking) at 58% • Sustained low combined ratio, non-life (95%) • Very low credit-risk provisioning (loan-loss ratio at 0.04%) • Reminder: comparison of individual P/L lines with pro forma 2004 figures distorted by application of IFRS 32/39 and IFRS 4 as of 2005 • Business outlook for 2005 remains positive
Financial highlights - At a glance - Group financial performance - Financial headlines per segment FY 2005 profit outlook Foto gebouw
Solid underlying revenue trend IFRS 2005 IFRS 2004 1.0 bn* 0.6 bn* 0.5 bn* 2.1 bn* • IFRS reclassifications distort y/y comparison (among other things, non-recognition of unit-linked premiums) • H1’s solid trend in F&C income continued in Q3 (452m, up 10% q/q and 40% y/y) • Banking NIM: up q/q from 1.63% to 1.69%, benefiting from, among other things, 25 bps deposit rate cut in Belgium (however, other one-off impacts, as well) • Record level of life insurance premium income (1.3 bn - mostly unit-linked, driven by low interest rates and good stock market performance) • Down 511m y/y, due to non-recognition of 2.1 bn new unit-linked premium volume under IFRS 2005 • Apart from one-offs (173m in Q1), solid revenue ‘quality’: • NII: volume growth and refinancing fees offsetting negative impact on NIM of flattened yield curve. NIM down -9 bps y/y to 1.65%. • High level of life insurance premium income (3.3 bn) • Strong F&C income (+29%) * Sales of unit-linked life insurance, recognized differently under IFRS 2005
Business volumes, growth trend Note: growth trend excl. (reverse) repo and interbank activity
NIM / IR sensitivity • In Q3, NIM went up 6 bps, benefiting from, among other things, a deposit rate cut in Belgium. YtD NIM is down 9 bps, impacted by margin erosion in CEE (offset by volume growth, F&C income and lower cost of risk) • The P/L impact of a 50-bps parallel upwards shift of the yield curve would have a positive impact of appx. 10 m euros (assuming deposit rate in Belgium remains stable) vs. the base scenario for 2006 with a 2% ECB rate and 3.75% 10-y Govi yield * For comparison purposes vis-a-vis 2004, impact of IFRS 32/39 has been been neutralised
Sustained favourable y/y cost trend -1% • As expected, cost level - down 32m q/q since Q2 - was negatively impacted by one-off merger-related costs (20 m) and catch-up on underusage of expense budgets in Q1 (20m) • 3Q includes update of provisions for legal risks • Y/y trend: +3% since staff profit-sharing bonuses were very low in Q3 04 (very poor performance at KBC Financial Products) • Ytd expenses down 30m (-1%), mainly due to cost-cutting efforts in the Belgian banking business in 2004 • Cost/income ratio, banking, down from 62% to 58%
Historic low impairment level -81% • Impairments down 232 m (-81%) on the back of limited credit risk and solid equity markets • Loan-loss ratio down from 0.20% in FY 04 to 0.04% • Q3 impairments remain at historic low levels (net write-back of 3m)
Excellent underwriting result, non-life • Combined ratio at 95% on the back of • Sound risk management (claims ratio at 64%) • Good cost control (expense ratio at 31%) • Favourable claims environment in all markets • Q3 sligthly higher q/q, mainly due to seasonal pattern in expense ratio
Financial highlights - At a glance - Group financial performance - Financial headlines per segment FY 2005 profit outlook Foto gebouw
Segment structure KBC Group NV KBCBank KBCInsurance KBCAM KBL epb Gevaert Primary segmentation by business segment
Key points, business segments Banking: • Q3 05 profit contribution at 363 m: • Good top-line mix, commissions particularly strong, not boosted by gains and trading income, NII up (however, significant one-off positive impact) • Costs flat q/q (incl. 40m provision related to legal files) • Once again, very limited loan-loss charges (3m) • 9M05 earnings at record level of 1.1 bn, driven by: • Strong commission income (+22%) • Strict cost control: -3% y/y (C/I at 58% incl. AM) • Limited credit cost (4 bps) • One-off income related to settlement of historic loan dispute in Slovakia in Q1 (68 m net) Insurance: • Strong Q3 05 results, in line with Q1/Q2 (without significant capital gains and dividend income as in the 2 previuos quarters), due to: • Record level of sales of life products (1.3 bn), mostly unit-linked (recognized as F&C income) • Limited M2M gain (9m) & write-back of impairments (8m) • 9M05 earnings increasing to 366m on the back of: • High sales of life insurance (3.3 bn euro), boosting life reserves by 19% • Excellent underwriting performance (CR, non-life, 95%) • Higher investment income, partly due to the gain on the disposal of the participation of FBD (net non-recurring impact: 68 m) • Low impairment charges on portfolios (extremely high in 1Q 04) BANKING Net profit (in m) 4 Qs moving average INSURANCE 4 Qs moving average Net profit (in m)
Key points, business segments Asset management: • AUM in 3Q05 up 6% (o/w 40% new money inflows), boosting net profit contribution to 74m • 9M05 earnings at 200m, +38m y/y (+23%) driven by increased AUM: • AUM in 9M05 up 22% to 102 bn (60% due to new inflows) • C/I at 14% • Net margin on AUM at 2.9% • Note: total AUM within the Group: 186 bn • Asset management segment: 87 bn (3rd party) + 15 bn (group assets) • Banking segment: 24 bn (mostly private and HNWI assets in Belgium and CEE) • European private banking segment: 60 bn (o/w 52 bn of private banking customers) European private banking: • 3Q05 profit contribution (39 m) in line with previous quarter: • M2M of trading instruments was compensated by better NII of trading instruments, the reversal of impaiments on AFS assets and a positive tax impact • AUM increased by 9% (partly due to expansion of consolidation scope ) • 9M05 earnings at 133m, up 29 m (+28%): • Sustained growth trend of F&C income out of private banking and custody operations • Even higher cost level (C/I at 72%, but negatively impacted by 20 m in restructuring charges) ASSET MANAGEMENT Net profit (in m) 4 Qs moving average EUROPEAN PRIVATE BANKING Net profit (in m) 4 Qs moving average
Key points, business segments Gevaert: • Downsizing of non-core activities is progressing according to plan: Gevaert to disappear as seperate ‘business line’ • 3Q05 negative profit contribution related to: • The ‘unwinding process’ (8 m impairment loss and 10 m taxes on intragroup dividend upstreaming ) • Earnings loss at Agfa Gevaert (-38 m impact) mainly due to rise in restructuring provisions (Agfa Photo) • 9M05 profit contribution of 59 m largely driven by gains on disposals Holding company: • 3Q05 net holding company results (-14 m) at ‘normalized’ level • 9M05 net charge at –73 m, quite high due to: • One-off costs in Q2, related to Almanij-KBC merger: expenses for redemption of stock option plan at KBL that was delisted (15 m) and external advisory services (5 m) • Costs of debt related to minority buy-out of KBL (already partly reduced in Q3) • Elimination of dividends received on own shares (IFRS 2005) (9 m in Q2) GEVAERT Net profit (in m) 4 Qs moving average HOLDING COMPANY Net profit (in m) 4 Qs moving average
Segment structure – cont’d. 2 KBC Group NV 1 KBCBank KBCInsurance KBCAM KBL epb Gevaert Retail Business customers CEE Markets European private banking 1 . Primary segmentation by business segment 2. Additional breakdown by area of activity Gevaert
Retail Belgium and CEE Retail Belgium: • Strong profitability trend continues in Q3. Profit contribution up 15 m q/q supported by deposit rate cut, among other things. • 9M05 earnings at 799 m, up 440 m (x2.2), generating ROAC of 29% (15% in 9M04): • sound revenue growth (esp. related to investment products and mortgages) • sustained cost discipline (-3% y/y), C/I 57%(67% in 9M04) • Solid P&C underwriting performance: C/R stable at 94% • absence of credit provisioning (LLR 0%) and normalization of value impairments on the investment portfolio (184 m impairments in 9M04) • ‘Private banking’ sub-segment contributes 49 m in 9M05 (vs 32 m in 9M04) CEE: • Q305 profit contribution at 105 m. Compared with Q2: higher banking income, lower costs (C/I 60%) but somewhat higher non-life claims (C/R 98%) and loan losses (LLR 26 bps) • 9M05 earnings at 416m, up 175m (+73%) generating a ROAC of 48% (32% in 9M04): • In CR/Slovakia: 9M05 earnings at 289 m (incl. one-off of 68 m in Q1), driven by steady loan growth, increased F&C income and strong C/I ratio (48%) • Poland: 9M05 profit contribution of 82 m (incl. deferred taxes of 18 m) due to sound cost trend, growing insurance business and absence of loan losses • Hungary: further positive trend of operating performance, but update of legal legacy provision and higher loan-loss provisions (LLR 0.72%, still lower then major peer). 9M05 profit at 27 m RETAIL (BELGIUM) Net profit (in m) 4 Qs moving average CEE Net profit (in m) 4 Qs moving average
SME and wholesale activities SME/corporate customers: • 3Q05 profit contribution (182 m) boosted by strong income from corporate finance / private equity business (including IPO of ‘Telenet’) and writeback of loan losses • 9M05 earnings at 408 m, up 107 m (+36%), generating ROAC of 25% (18% in 9M04): • Succesful income growth, including in corporate finance. Gross margin (on RWA): 3.2% (2.9% in 9M04) • Low credit provisions: LLR at 0.01% (0.16% in 9M04) • High cost efficiency: C/I at 33% (36% in 9M04) • Solid underwriting result of outbound R/I activities: C/R 90% (94% in 9M04) Capital markets: • 3Q05 profit contribution (58 m), slightly higher then level registered in previous quarters and driven by enhanced trading activity in convertibles/equity derivatives • 9M05 earnings at 164m, up 7 m (+4%): • Interest-rate and FX activities, equity brokerage and equity derivatives trading brought about a result improvement • Income from convertibles trading, structured credit business and AIM weaker then last year • 9M05 key ratios: • Gross margin (on RWA): 6.9% (7.5% in 9M04) • C/I at 58% (61% in 9M04) • ROAC at 29% (31% in 9M04) SME / CORPORATE Net profit (in m) 4 Qs moving average CAPITAL MARKETS Net profit (in m) 4 Qs moving average
Financial highlights - At a glance - Group financial performance - Financial headlines per segment FY 2005 profit outlook Foto gebouw
FY 2005 profit outlook • KBC continues to be positive on business development in Q4, with a strong sales result, a better interest rate climate and favourable equity markets trend • On the other hand, the cost level is expected to be higher in Q4 on the back of one-off expenses (including some 100 m euros (before tax), among other things, for the redesigning of staff pension schemes). However, for the full-year, the guidance for a decline in costs and historic low loan-loss ratio remains valid • Based on the prevailing view vis-à-vis the relevant economic and financial parameters, KBC’s 2005 net profit is expected to be approx. 2.2 bn euros
Financial highlights - At a glance - Group financial performance - Financial headlines per segment FY 2005 profit outlook Additional information Foto gebouw
3Q 2005 earnings, by area of activity Excl. non-allocated results