1 / 9

Николай Демидов, Генеральный директор IMS Health Россия и СНГ

«Тревожные сигналы для российского фармрынка летом 2013 года: дальше хуже или дальше только лучше?». Николай Демидов, Генеральный директор IMS Health Россия и СНГ. Общий прогноз развития мирового рынка был снижен (сентябрь) из-за корректировки прогноза по развивающимся рынкам.

melva
Download Presentation

Николай Демидов, Генеральный директор IMS Health Россия и СНГ

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. «Тревожные сигналы для российского фармрынка летом 2013 года: дальше хуже или дальше только лучше?» Николай Демидов, Генеральный директор IMS Health Россия и СНГ

  2. Общий прогноз развития мирового рынка был снижен (сентябрь) из-за корректировки прогноза по развивающимся рынкам Global Sales and Growth, updated Sept 2013 US$ sales Bn. Growth $1.2 trillion 1.200 10% 9% 1.000 8% 7% 800 6% 600 5% 4% 400 3% 2% 200 1% 0 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (f) 2014 (f) 2015 (f) 2016 (f) 2017 (f) Source: IMS Health Market Prognosis, update September 2013, at ex-manufacturer price levels, not including rebates and discounts. Moscow, 10th of December 2013

  3. Рост в Восточной Европе определяется прежде всего ростом РФ и СНГ Forecasted Sales and Growth Sales US$ bn Growth 75 8% 7,3% 6,7% 6,2% 6,2% 60 5,7% 6% 5,2% 45 4% 30 2% 15 0 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Russia + CIS Balkans CEE Growth Adriatics Source: IMS Health Market Prognosis, Sep 2013, at ex-manufacturer price levels, not including rebates and discounts. Moscow, 10th of December 2013

  4. Макроэкономика России: затяжное пике основных индексов вызывает растущую тревогу 110% 103% 103% Ключевые выводы • Замедление темпов роста осн. индексов должно негативно сказаться на социальной сфере • Произошло ли это в России в 1-3 кв. 2013? Source: Rosstat Moscow, 10th of December 2013

  5. Macroeconomic indexes in Russia: an emergency break in the middle of 2013 provides concerns Key assumption • Macroeconomic slow down had still low effect on key social (“consumer”) indexes • The effect could be expected in the 4th quarter for retail and in the beginning of 2014 for state funded segments Source: Rosstat Moscow, 10th of December 2013

  6. Pharma market growth in Jan-Sept 2013 Retail sector continued to drive the market Value Volume +7% -4% 473,2 3,74 3,60 443,4 -3% 316,6 12% 283,7 SALES BY VOLUME, BLN PACKS Retail 3,19 3,11 SALES BY VALUE, RUB BLN Hospital -11% Reimbursement -10% 83,1 92,7 -5% 0,47 73,5 0,42 10% 67,0 0,08 0,07 YTDQ3 2012 YTDQ3 2013 YTDQ3 2012 YTDQ3 2013 Source: IMS Health. TRD prices Moscow, 10th of December 2013

  7. The market slowdown was firstly perceived as a remission after a high  growth due to the Flu epidemic Flu epidemic comments 2012 • Flu epidemic was the market driver in Q1: +19% (USD) • The growth reduction slowed the market down in Q2 to the critical +10% • 2013 Q3 shows unusual pattern of growth, compared to 2011 & 2012, with sales increase in July but flat sales in August (typical start of the season) 2013 2011 Growth YvY 0! Source: IMS Health.*-data atTRD prices Moscow, 10th of December 2013

  8. Структура роста: различия ЖНВЛП и не ЖНВЛП Structural shift and price increaseof Non-EDL drive retail market ЖНВЛП Рост розничного рынка Преимущественно Rx 10,7% 3,0% • The shift of consumption structure has significant impact on both EDL and Non EDL segments • Price increase comes from Non EDL segment only • Structure shift is the only driver in EDL for a long time • Price growth on non-EDL products has probably a limited potential as a tool for margin’s increase for market players due to competition 10% 0,8% 1,5% 0,1% Price Structure Volume  New products* Total Growth Преимущественно OTC не ЖНВЛП 7,1% 13% 1,4% 3,6% 7,9% 0,0% Price Structure Volume  New products* Total Growth Source: IMS Health. Data at TRD prices, Drop-out products are excluded due to low figures Moscow, 10th of December 2013

  9. Long term forecast Navigating different alternatives we are positive about attractiveness of the Russian market CAGR Retail +12.7% Drug insurance CAGR %(2007-17)13.7% Total Pharmaceutical market Sales LC$B (ex-mnf), 2006-2017 Drivers • Price increases for products not included in the EDL will drive price growth in the retail market • Introduction of Drug insurance in a mid/long term range New pricing system 2010 10% Crisis2009 Regionalisation of DLO 18% Constraints • Slow economy recovery • EDL pricing/ Restrictions on price registrations • An investigation into state procurement and changes to the state procurement rules could result in lower prices in the DLO and hospital sectors 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E Source: IMS Health, Market Prognosis Sept 2013 Moscow, 10th of December 2013

More Related