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Change the Prediction One student at a time

Change the Prediction One student at a time. “Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American and Latino students, it’s closer to one in three.”

melyssa-simpson
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Change the Prediction One student at a time

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  1. Change the PredictionOne student at a time “Almost one million students who start ninth grade each year will not earn a diploma four years later - one of every four students. For African American and Latino students, it’s closer to one in three.” Graduation Matters: Improving Accountability for High School Graduation, by Daria Hall

  2. Dropout Early Warning: Who, What, When, and How Jessie Joubert, Edgear/JPams Consultant Brenda Joubert, SREB School Improvement Consultant Ralph Thibodeaux, Deputy Director, HS Redesign, LA DOE

  3. Plan of Action • Overview of Research • Identify students to target • Data in Student Information Systems • Identifying students using data • Interventions • Identifying interventions • Planning for interventions to occur

  4. The Picture is Bleak for Dropouts Dropouts are much more likely than their peers who graduate to be: • Unemployed • Living in poverty • Receiving public assistance • In prison • Unhealthy • Divorced • Single parents with children who drop out from high school themselves The Silent Epidemic John M. Bridgeland, John J. DiIulio, Jr., Karen Burke Morison. March 2006

  5. The Picture is Bleak for Dropouts • A Growing Prison Population 75 Percent Of State Prison Inmates And 59 Percent Of Federal Inmates Are High-school Dropouts. • Increasing Welfare Costs • A Limited Labor Supply For An Economy With An Increasing Appetite For Educated Workers For American society, the annual cost of providing for youth who fail to complete high school and their families is $76 billion/year – or approximately $800 for each taxpayer in states and localities across the country One-third of a Nation: Rising Dropout Rates and Declining Opportunities, ETS, February 2006

  6. The Picture is Brighter for Graduates Graduates are more likely to be: • Employed • Self sustaining • Productive Citizens • Healthy • In good relationships • Raise productive children

  7. Dropouts Identify Five Major FactorsFor Leaving School • 47% Classes not interesting • 43% Missed too many days, could not catch up • 42% Spent time with people disinterested in school • 38% Had too much freedom & not enough rules • 35% Was failing in school The Silent Epidemic John M. Bridgeland, John J. DiIulio, Jr., Karen Burke Morison. March 2006

  8. Who are these dropouts? • 69 % said they were not motivatedor inspired to work hard, • 66% would have worked harder if more was expectedof them (higher academic standards and more studying or homework), • 37 % said that “failing in school” was a major factor for dropping out; • 62 % missed class often the year before dropping out. National Center For Dropout Prevention

  9. Grade Level of Dropouts • Source: Ed Week: • EPE Research Center 2006

  10. Regrets • In hindsight, dropouts are almost universally remorseful for having left school. • About ¾ of dropouts indicate they would have remained in school if they could relive the experience. • 74% of dropouts would re-enter school if they could attend in alternative settings with age-level peers. SOURCE: The Silent Epidemic, Civic Enterprises, March 2006

  11. Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs

  12. Early Identification & Intervention is Key Research by Louisiana DOE determined ninth grade is the critical year when students drop out, but mental dropping out begins long before physical withdrawal from school.

  13. Early Predictors of Failure to Graduate • Each 8th grade course failure increases the odds of non-promotion from 9th to 10th grade by 16% • Students who are 15 years of age or older when they enter high school • Although 8th-grade test scores are good predictors of students’ likelihood to do well in high school courses, course attendance is eight times more predictive of course failure in the freshman year Education Commission of the States; 2008

  14. 6th Grade Research Academic Achievement Course failure is a better indicator of not graduating than low test scores. • Failing Math (for the year) in 6th grade • Failing English (for the year) in 6th grade Attendance When attendance dips below 80% (36 days or more/ year), 75% or more of these students don’t graduate. Balfanz & Mac Iver, Johns HopkinsHerzog, Philadelphia Education Fund

  15. 6th Grade Research Suspensions Only 20% who receive one or more suspensions in 6th grade graduate within a year of on-time graduation. Behavior grades predict half of the school/district’s future nongraduates. Unsatisfactory behavior magnifies the damaging effects of course failure on students’ prospects of graduating! Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver, Johns Hopkins, Philadelphia Education Fund

  16. Identify Students in Need Every grade level should work with students who exhibit at risk behaviors: • Absenteeism • Low grades • Poor discipline • Overage

  17. TAKE ACTIONNOW!

  18. Target Assistance Specific Interventions target needs: • Absenteeism • Low grades • Poor discipline • Overage

  19. Looking at the Work Identify Students to Target Automatic Email Notifications Query Of At Risk Students

  20. Dropout Early Warning System DEWS What is DEWS? Reporting system that identifies potential dropouts and brings these students to the attention of school, district, and state personnel.

  21. Essential Elements of DEWS Reports Identifies 8th – 12th grade students who are: • Over age by two years • Absenteeism≥ 10% of days enrolled • Discipline≥ 7% of days enrolled • Grades • Current GPA drop of 1.5 or more from previous GPA > 2.0 • Current GPA drop of .5 or more from previous GPA ≤ 2.0 • Current GPA ≤ 1.0

  22. Student Detail Listings Automatic Email on the 1st and 15th of each month • Sent to • School Principal • Assistant Principal • Counselor • District Superintendent • Includes • Comprehensive list of students showing at risk information • New students who meet criteria is sent daily

  23. Student Detail Listings Current GPA Previous GPA # of referrals Days absent SBLC referrals SBLC meetings Blocked for confidentiality

  24. DEWS District Tables Automatic Email on the 1st and 15th of each Month • Delivered to • School Principals • Assistant Principals • District Superintendent • Two Reports • Counts of 9th graders for each site by at risk indicators • Counts of 8th – 12th graders for each site by at risk indicators

  25. DEWS District Tables

  26. DEWS District Tables

  27. DEWS Statewide Table Automatic Email on the 1st and 15th of each month • Delivered to • LA Dept of Education State Superintendent • Selected DOE Staff • Includes • Counts of 8th–12th grade students by district by at risk indicators.

  28. DEWS Statewide Table

  29. Report Generation DEWS automatic emails are broad in nature. To target assistance, more information is needed. • Reports On-Demand (SBLC/DEWS/District DEWS) • Allows for Investigation of student details • Grades • Discipline • Attendance • Test scores

  30. Report Generation Cell click a count or name to display further detail.

  31. Tracking Interventions • SBLC Student Details (SBLC/Find1) • Reason for Referral • Recommended Interventions • SBLC Meetings Minutes • SBLC School Trends Report (SBLC/Trends/SBLC Referral Intervention Trends) • Referrals by Type • Interventions

  32. Interventions Compilation • Parent/Guardian Notification • Progress reports • Report cards • Attendance letter • Phone calls • Parent Command Center • Parent/Guardian Conference • Meeting with parents/guardians to discuss intervention actions • Judicial • Truancy court • Pre court conferences • TASC • Home visits • FINS • Marine Institute • Boot camp • Positive Behavior • SWPBS • DARE • Counseling • School Based • Professional treatment • Conference with student • Mental health services • Verified not at risk • Special Services • Referral to pupil appraisal • Special education referral • Behavior plan • Mentoring • Pairs students with adults and or students • Buddy System • Natural helpers • Other • Miscellaneous category Tutorial Services • Homework hotline • Teacher assistance • Peer tutoring program • Special class Teaming • Ninth-grade teams • Regular team meetings • Notifying teacher or other professionals Classroom Adjustment • Ability grouping • Smaller class sizes • Freshman-only classes • Extended day • Credit Recovery Alternative Program • Options • In school suspensions/expulsions • Alternative site • Alternative school

  33. Referrals/Interventions by School

  34. Detail of Referrals/Interventions

  35. Looking at the Work Interventions Identifying Effective Interventions Planning For Interventions To Occur Monitoring And Adjusting Interventions

  36. Referrals/Interventions by School

  37. Detail of Referrals/Interventions

  38. Abbeville High School Early Warning System and Interventions Rigor-Relevance-Relationships Presenter Ralph Thibodeaux

  39. ReDesignGoals • Improve the Graduation Rate • Improve GPA • Improve Attendance • Improve Discipline • Improve ILEAP/GEE Scores Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

  40. SUCCESS IS A JOURNEY… NOT A DESTINATION.

  41. Objectives • History • Why an Early Warning System • Early Warning Indicators • Example of Reports • Utilization of the Early Warning System • Programs for all Students • Interventions for Individual Students • Goals of the Early Warning System Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

  42. Why do we need an Early Warning System and Interventions? Data for the Graduating Class of 2005 228 Starting Freshman This is a 19.3% loss of students. 184 -52 176 Graduating Seniors Most of which happened in the first year Passed to Sophomore

  43. Warning Indicators • Discipline for year and/or current term • Attendance for year and/or current term • Grade Point Average • Decline in Grade Point Average Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

  44. Early Warning Report

  45. Utilization of Early Warning System • Principal • Assistant Principals • School Counselors • Freshman Teams • All Grade levels Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

  46. Development of the Interventions/Programs/Strategies • Scheduled a Team Meeting • Created a list of all Interventions/Programs/Strategies from the Model Schools Conference plus prior knowledge • Divided into small groups to create each level • Together reached a consensus on all levels Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

  47. Interventions/Programs/Strategies • Early Preparation Programs • Multi-Level Comprehensive Interventions • Celebrate Success • High Expectations Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

  48. Freshman Parent Night Progress Report 3rd Week of each 6 Weeks 1st Contact Phone Call Advisory Room “Making High School Count” Freshman Orientation Day Spring 8th Grade Tour Spring 8th Grade Parent Meeting Spring Letters from 9th graders to 8th graders Freshman of the Month Special Renaissance Reward (9th Ice Cream, etc.) Achievements Posted Honors Contracts Parent Command Center “Capturing Kids’ Hearts” M.B. Flippen “I” Contracts Reteach/Retest Pilot in Math Future Academy Ideas Level 1 Interventions Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

  49. Teacher/Student Conference Follow-up Parent Phone Call Voluntary Tutoring Talk to Advisory Room Teacher and Team Teachers Web/Computer Review and Skills Development Level 2 Interventions Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

  50. Level 3 Interventions • Parent Teacher Conference • Signing of Planners Nightly • Parent Letters Sent Home • Mid-term “Possible Failure” Letter Rigor-Relevance-Relationships

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