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FY07 Hydro Group Proposals to AHPS SLF Theme Team. Mike Smith October 12, 2006. Hydrology Lab. HSEB. HSMB. Hydro Ensemble Prediction Group. Hydro-Met Analysis Group. Design Studies Center. Hydrologic Modeling Group. Hydraulic Modeling Group. Seann Reed Mike Smith
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FY07 Hydro Group Proposalsto AHPS SLF Theme Team Mike Smith October 12, 2006
Hydrology Lab HSEB HSMB Hydro Ensemble Prediction Group Hydro-Met Analysis Group Design Studies Center Hydrologic Modeling Group Hydraulic Modeling Group
Seann Reed Mike Smith Victor Koren Fekadu Moreda Ziya Zhang Zhengtao Cui Fan Lei (10/31) Eric Anderson (1/4) Who is in our group? Victor Ziya Fekadu Fan Mike Seann (Contractor) Zhengtao
Hydrologic Modeling Group General R&D Topics to Meet NOAA/NWS Goals Improved Calibration Tools -CAP -ICP Improved Site Specific Model Energy Budget Snow Models (SNODAS) Statistical Distributed Flash flood model Distributed Snow-17 - Better Forecast Accuracy - More Specific and Timely information on Fast Rising Floods Improved Calibration Science -Multi-objective -Soil moisture + Other obs. Distributed Rainfall/Runoff Models Improved Initial Model Parameters New rainfall-runoff Models -DMIP 1,2 - Prototype Products for Water Resources Program Soil Moisture Soil Tempature Surface Water
SLF Proposed Projects Thursday October 12, 2006 1. Calibration R&D 2.Prototype water resource products
1. Calibration R&DFY07 Tasks • Need • Must deliver calibration tools to keep pace with new science releases, e.g., distributed modeling, ability to compute soil moisture, finer time/space scales etc. • Reduce overall effort to calibrate models (all models need calibration!) • Meet AHPS goals
1. Calibration R&DFY06 Accomplishments • Soil moisture and calibration • Submit paper on Simplified Line Search (SLS) to OHD review • Presented findings at major int’l. hydrology conference • Explored use of X-DMS as a way to look for spatially uniform precip for lumped models. (DMIP 2)
ObservedSimulated Discharge Objective function: Minimize errors ObservedSimulated Soil Moisture 0-25 cm depth ObservedSimulated Soil Moisture 25-75 cm depth
1. Calibration R&D FY07 Tasks 1.1 Incorporate soil moisture, temperature into lumped and distributed SAC calibration strategy • Develop ‘proof of concept’ narrative • Explore appropriate weighted objective functions • Explore other search algorithms • Develop appropriate averaging of soil moisture, temperature over desired area • Deliverables • Guidelines on how to do it • Prototype calibration tools • Requirements for ICP enhancements
1. Calibration R&D FY07 Tasks 1.2 Enhance Existing Statistics Program: STAT-Q What is STAT-Q? -Analyzes two time series for run-period and event statistics; prototype sent to all RFC’s several years ago, sub-daily time steps -Complements NWSRFS STAT-QME operation (limited to daily flows) 1.2.1 Tasks • Add ability to analyze multiple time series (more than current two) • Add ability to output to Excel, ‘R’ etc for easy plotting • Create HOSIP documents for AWIPS 1.2.2 Deliverables • Updated prototype tool and documentation • HOSIP documents for AWIPS delivery
1. Calibration R&D FY07 Tasks 1.3 Auto-calibration of lumped and distributed models Proposed Approach: Auto calb. algorithm & a priori parameters 1.3.1 Tasks - Modify distributed model to efficiently link to auto-calb procedures (current approach: manual scaling of parameters) • Explore appropriate multi-time scale objective functions • Determine appropriate search algorithms for this approach • Develop requirements to add new algorithms and new obj. functions to AWIPS NWSRFS OPT3 program 1.3.2 Deliverables • Prototype distributed, lumped calibration tools • Requirements for ICP enhancements for lumped tools • Requirements for modifying NWSRFS OPT3 to include new items Minimize K= hours, days, months,…
Prototype Water Resource Products • - Motivation 1. FY07 Hydrology Program Annual Guidance Memorandum Short- to Long-Term Forecast Services • Produce water resource information fields from distributed models to support water resource management and environmental stewardship 2. NOAA AGM 2008-2012, page 8
Prototype Water Resource Products • - Motivation, cont’d 3. Existing RFC needs: ‘We are also interested in the modified SAC model, particularly since we are somewhat “on the hook” to try to develop a soil moisture product (graphic) which conveys the current model states. This has been a recurring request (several years) which we have delayed, but was recently placed on a list in Central Region which specifies that we begin attempts to address this.” John Halquist, March 18, 2005
Source: Gary Carter, ER WR meeting March, 2006 Water Resource Services Physical Sciences Observe Watershed and soil condition forecasts for hazard resilient communities • Run-off or River flow • Soil moisture • Soil temperature • Precipitation • Snowpack • Surface storage • Ground water • Water temperature • Water quality Short- to long-term water risk information to support hazard resistant businesses (including agriculture) and local ecosystem stewardship Monitor & Predict Physical Science Research Analyze Inform Risk Reduction Research Planning Education Socioeconomic Sciences Mitigating Action
Source: Gary Carter, ER WR meeting March, 2006 High Resolution Soil Moisture Forecasts – near term activities Test prototype version of soil moisture products from CONUS runs of HL-RDHM and compare with other models Implementation of HL-Research Distributed Hydrologic Model uses: • Hillslope routing within each model cell • Cell-to-cell channel routing • Uncalibrated, a-priori parameters for Sacramento (SAC-SMA) and channel routing models
Source: Gary Carter, ER WR meeting March, 2006; Moreda et al., 2005 Use of Soil Moisture to Evaluate Distributed Models Initial test results: October 1998 – September 1999; 75 basins within the Oklahoma Mesonet HL-Distributed Model MOSAIC NCEP NLDAS HL model Higher Correlation Upper 10cm Lower 30cm 12
FY07 Tasks • Continued evaluation of prototype products • Illinois (other) soil moisture data • Soil temperature data • Formal analysis of results from New Mexico rangeland study. • Contribute to and leverage related projects • NLDAS: NCEP sponsored CONUS scale runs of several models • Leverage independent analyses of models and data • Compare NLDAS coarse scale to OHD fine-scale products • Analyze surface water storage as new product