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Managing sustainability transitions The Dutch Energy transition

Managing sustainability transitions The Dutch Energy transition. Ren é Kemp Presentation at SDRN meeting London, 22 Sept, 2004 MERIT & DRIFT. Contents. NMP4: the need for sustainability transitions What is transition management

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Managing sustainability transitions The Dutch Energy transition

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  1. Managing sustainability transitions The Dutch Energy transition René Kemp Presentation at SDRN meeting London, 22 Sept, 2004 MERIT & DRIFT

  2. Contents • NMP4: the need for sustainability transitions • What is transition management • Transition management in practice. The example of sustainable energy policy • Conclusions

  3. Why do we need transitions? • NMP4: persistent environmental problems (climate change, biodiversity, depletion of resources, threats to human health) • require system change or transitions towards alternative systems of energy supply, transport, resource use, agriculture • existing policy is not enough(transitions require changes in policy)

  4. What is a transition? • Transition isaprocess in which something changes from one state to another (Collins Dictionary). • Societal transitions are transformation processes resulting in a new type of coherence (system logic) that constitutes the basis for further development

  5. A transition is the result of many changes and not a deterministic process (source: Butter et al., 2002)

  6. Magnitude of societal change Time Transition phases Stabilisation Breakthrough Take off Predevelopment Rotmans, Kemp, van Asselt (2001)

  7. Transition management …. is a deliberate effort to work towards a transition in a stepwise, adaptive manner, utilising dynamics and visions … is a model for governance in which different visions and routes are explored:

  8. Societal goals Political margins for change Existing policy process: short-term goals (myopic) State of development of solutions Sustainability visions Transition management: oriented towards long-term sustainability goals and visions, iterative and reflexive (bifocal) Transition Management: bifocal instead of myopic

  9. Mathematically transition management = current policies + long-term vision + vertical and horizontal coordination of policies + portfolio-management + process management. ... is bottom-up and top-down, using strategic experiments and “frame condition” policies … is a model for governance, relying on “self-organisation”

  10. Sustainable energy economy: • economically efficient (‘profit’) • reliable (‘people’) • minimal negative environmental and social impacts (‘planet’) • Long term goals, combined with • Concrete short term steps • …and successes...

  11. Biomass Policy Renewal New Gas Sustainable Rijnmond Eff. Energy Chains Areas of interest in the Energy transition

  12. 2050 Transition Paths 2020 Transition Paths 2008 Present Visionary: Global Images Strategic Vision: Concrete Efficiency Biomass New Gas Research Go - No Go Experiments Experiments Research Experiments More abstract More concrete

  13. The biomass transition Biomass 20-40% of primary energy supply ‘Vision’ ‘Strategic goals’ 10-15% in power prod. 15-20% in traffic 2020 A. Gasification B. Pyrolysis ‘Transition Paths’ Expv 2 à 3 % C. Biofuels Exp 2003 EOS EOS : experiments : R&D Exp 2050

  14. Conclusion Transition management is not a “megalomaniac” attempt to control the future But an attempt at goal-oriented modulation, relying on variation and selection (through markets and public choice) It is a model for governance in which system innovations are explored, in a stepwise manner

  15. “Policies for science and technology must always be a mixture of realism and idealism” Chris Freeman (1991)

  16. What’s new about transition management? • The orientation to transition goals (less short-termism) • The orientation to learning and innovation (helps to overcome the preference for quick results, and policy reliance on technical fixes) • Alignment of different policy domains (helps to deal with fragmented policies) • Programmes for system innovation based on visions of sustainability • Opening up of policy process (less domination by vested interests)

  17. Ways in which transition management address the 5 key problems of SD policy • Dissent: agreeing on key performance parameters for functional systems • Distributed control: visions, long-term goals and programmes for system innovation • Short-term steps: strategic experiments and steps towards changing frame conditions • Danger of lock-in to suboptimal solutions: portfolios and adaptive policies • Political myopia: transition agendas, arenas, forgoing technical fixes

  18. Questions To what extent is the UK involved in transition management? Will the UK be more successful in reducing CO2 than NL but less successful in creating new energy business?

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