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Suggestion: Apply procedure analogous to that of the FP6 ENSEMBLES project

Contribution of MPI to CLIMARES Erich Roeckner, Dirk Notz Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg. Suggestion: Apply procedure analogous to that of the FP6 ENSEMBLES project ‘Stream 1‘: Global climate simulations to be done for the IPCC AR5

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Suggestion: Apply procedure analogous to that of the FP6 ENSEMBLES project

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  1. Contribution of MPI to CLIMARESErich Roeckner, Dirk NotzMax Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg

  2. Suggestion: Apply procedure analogous to that of the FP6 ENSEMBLES project ‘Stream 1‘: Global climate simulations to be done for the IPCC AR5 (data available for impact studies by the end of year 2010) ‘Stream 2‘ Additional simulations with improved model - focus on sea ice (data available by the end of year 2011)

  3. Model to be used for stream1 Atmosphere: ECHAM6 (T159L95) including the stratosphere (top at 80km height) Ocean: MPI-OM (0.4°,L80) Sea ice: dynamic/thermodynamic (zero-layer) Aerosols: interactive or prescribed (not yet decided) Carbon cycle: included

  4. ECHam6 (Roeckner et al., 2003), interactive runoff and glacier calving scheme. • Land surface JSBACH (Raddatz et al., 2007), Dynamic Vegetation (Brovkin et al., 2009) • New Radiation • Resolution: T63L47 and T159/L95 • OASIS 3.0 coupler • MPIOM (Marsland et al., 2003), C-Grid, z-level, partial cells, BBL parameterization • Hibler-type sea ice model incl. snow and fractional ice cover • Conformal mapping grid: Tri-polar: Resolution: 1°L40, 0.4°L80 • Ocean biogeochemistry module HAMOCC5 (Wetzel et al., 2007) The IPCC AR5 Earth System Model

  5. Model experiments (stream 1 = AR5) • Hindcasts (1960 to 2005) using observed • GHG and aerosol concentrations (or emissions) • Forecasts until 2035 (RCP4.5*) starting from • different observed (assimilated) ocean initial states • Projections until 2100 and beyond (”centennial”) • Number of realizations envisaged: ≥ 5 • * Representative concentration pathways reaching • 4.5 W/m2 radiative forcing by year 2100

  6. Model experiments (stream 2) • Repeat some of the stream 1 simulations • with an updated model, including new components • Multi-layer sea-ice model (see contribution D. Notz) • New parameterization of sea-ice albedo • (Pedersen et al. JGR 2009)

  7. New sea-ice model • An improved representation of first-year sea-ice formation • An improved representation of salt fluxes from ice • Multi-layer, multi-category sea-ice thermodynamics • Improved albedo scheme (Pedersen et al., 2009) At MPI, we are currently developing a new sea-ice model. It will include:

  8. Sea-ice albedo defined separately for • snow on ice (depends on snow aging) • bare ice (function of ice thickness) • melt ponds (depth, fractional area for FYI, MYI) • and specified differently for • direct, diffuse, visible, near-infrared radiation Few results from an earlier model version ...

  9. Annual cycle of Arctic sea-ice fractions ECHAM5/MPI-OM (T31L19) Snow on ice bare ice ponds

  10. Simulated (min, max, mean) and observed melt pond fractions (f) obs1 for whole Arctic (1998) ... SSM/I (IARC) obs2 for Beaufort and Chukchi Seas (Tschudi et al, 2004)

  11. Mean Arctic surface albedo (including sea-ice and leads) Obs: Laine JGR 2004 (AVHRR 1982-1998) %

  12. Expected outcome in climate change experiments (hypothesis to be checked) Enhanced sea-ice albedo feedback as a result of extended melt ponds simulated (and observed) on first year ice (FYI) Climate warming ==> MYI decreases, FYI increases ==> melt pond area increases ==> summer albedo decreases ==> enhanced absorption of sunlight ==> further warming

  13. Planned work within WP 110 Simulations with the new coupled model will be used within WP 110 to provide all partners with • Distribution of ice thickness and ice concentration throughout the entire Arctic Ocean • Uncertainty ranges of future sea-ice evolution • Impact of changes in future anthropogenic GHG emissions on the expected sea-ice evolution • Future changes within the Arctic climate system (Air and water temperature, precipitation, wave patterns (-> coastal erosion), changes in storm activity etc.) • Manpower: 1 Post Doc for 2 years and 1 PhD for 3 years

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