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Source: National Weather Service

U.S. and South America Grain and Oilseed Weather Considerations for 2013 Mike Tannura Meteorologist, Agricultural Economist, and Owner Transportation, Elevator, and Grain Merchants Association January 24, 2013. U.S. Drought Monitor As of Tuesday, January 15. Source: National Weather Service.

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Source: National Weather Service

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  1. U.S. and South America Grain and Oilseed Weather Considerations for 2013Mike TannuraMeteorologist, Agricultural Economist, and OwnerTransportation, Elevator, and Grain Merchants AssociationJanuary 24, 2013

  2. U.S. Drought Monitor • As of Tuesday, January 15 • Source: National Weather Service

  3. U.S. Streamflow • Monday, January 21, 2013 • Source: United States Geological Survey

  4. Upper-Mississippi Streamflow • Monday, January 21, 2013 • Source: United States Geological Survey

  5. Missouri Streamflow • Monday, January 21, 2013 • Source: United States Geological Survey

  6. Precipitation • Percent of Normal, 180-Day Period Ending Monday • A tale of two grain belts – one very dry, one wet • Source: National Weather Service

  7. U.S. Winter Wheat Production • 2007 - 2011 Average

  8. Precipitation (Percent of Normal) • Weighted By U.S. Crop Production • 180-Day Period Ending Monday • 68% of HRW wheat in drought, compared to only 10% of SRW wheat

  9. Neutral Conditions Exist • (Neither El Niño nor La Niña)

  10. Neutral Conditions To Continue • Through Summer • Data source: Climate Prediction Center

  11. U.S. Temperature Probability • March-April-May

  12. U.S. Precipitation Probability • March-April-May

  13. 10 Driest May-December Periods • In Kansas-Nebraska-Oklahoma • 1895 - 2012 • Data source: National Climatic Data Center

  14. March-April Precipitation After The 10 Driest May-December Periods • In Kansas-Nebraska-Oklahoma • Data source: National Climatic Data Center

  15. U.S. Winter Wheat Yield • 1950 - 2012 • Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

  16. U.S. Winter Wheat Yield After The 10 Driest May-December Periods • In Kansas-Nebraska-Oklahoma • Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

  17. U.S. Corn Production • 2007 - 2011 Average

  18. U.S. Soybean Production • 2007 - 2011 Average

  19. Ideal Weather For • Highest U.S. Corn Yield

  20. Ideal Weather For • Highest U.S. Soybean Yield

  21. U.S. Corn Yield • 1960 - 2012 • Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

  22. U.S. Corn Yield • (Departure From Trend) • 1960 - 2012 • Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

  23. U.S. Corn Yield and Lagged September-March Precipitation* • 1960 - 2012 • * Precipitation in Illinois-Indiana-Iowa • Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

  24. U.S. Soybean Yield and Lagged September-March Precipitation* • 1960 - 2012 • * Precipitation in Illinois-Indiana-Iowa • Data source: National Agricultural Statistics Service

  25. Summary • A large-scale and intense drought is in progress • May-December ranked #1 driest in at least 118 years across the key winter wheat states of Kansas-Nebraska-Oklahoma • Moderate historical support for slightly dry weather and low wheat yields during the key March-April period • The drought neither increases nor decreases the odds for above-trend or below-trend U.S. corn and soybean yields in 2013 • Autumn and winter weather hold no predictive value for future U.S. corn and soybean yields

  26. U.S. Earthquakes • Do you live in the Midwest or Mississippi Delta? • Have you ever felt an earthquake?

  27. San Francisco Earthquake • Magnitude 7.9 on April 18, 1906

  28. U.S. Earthquake Risk • The risk of a major earthquake in the central U.S. “is as high as for places in California” – United States Geological Survey, 2007 • Source: United States Geological Survey

  29. Two Seismic Zones In • The Corn Belt and Delta

  30. Halloween Earthquake • Near Cairo, Illinois • Magnitude 6.8 on October 31, 1895 • Source: United States Geological Survey

  31. New Madrid Earthquake Sequence • December 1811 – February 1812 • 4 earthquakes of Magnitude 7.8 – 8.1 • 8 earthquakes of at least Magnitude 7.0 (not aftershocks) • “…weeks to months…” of disruption would affect agriculture and its transportation infrastructure if a sequence recurred today – USGS 2009

  32. South America • Grains and Oilseeds

  33. Argentina Precipitation • Last 90 Days (Ending Monday)

  34. Argentina Precipitation • Last 30 Days (Ending Monday)

  35. Argentina’s Recent Weather Pattern

  36. Summary • Argentina is drying and its corn and soybeans need rain to return • Key corn and soybean areas of Center-West / Southeast Brazil and Bahia have been drier than average throughout most of its growing season

  37. Summary • A large-scale and intense drought is in progress • May-December ranked #1 driest in at least 118 years across the key winter wheat states of Kansas-Nebraska-Oklahoma • Moderate historical support for slightly dry weather and low wheat yields during the key March-April period • The drought neither increases nor decreases the odds for above-trend or below-trend U.S. corn and soybean yields in 2013 • Autumn and winter weather hold no predictive value for future U.S. corn and soybean yields • Argentina is drying and its corn and soybeans need rain to return • Key corn and soybean areas of Center-West / Southeast Brazil and Bahia have been drier than average throughout most of its growing season

  38. Thank You! • Questions? Mike Tannura Meteorologist, Agricultural Economist, and Owner Email: mike@tstorm.net Website: www.tstorm.net Phone: (312) 638-0993 Toll Free Phone: (866) 475-7370 980 North Michigan Avenue Suite 1400 Chicago, IL 60611

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