Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC) Issue Paper (DRAFT) Climate Change in the Caribbean: Water, Agricultu

1. Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC)Issue Paper (DRAFT)Climate Change in the Caribbean:Water, Agriculture, Forestry Dr. Roger S. Pulwarty University of Colorado and NOAA/Climate Diagnostics Center Boulder CO 80305

2. Background • Water Resources in the Caribbean: an overview • Agriculture, Food Security and Forestry in the Caribbean • Timescales of Climate Variation And Climate Change in the Caribbean • Impacts on Water Resources • Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security • Approaches to Adaptation: Integrating climate and natural resources assessments under a decision-oriented framework

3. Appendices APPENDIX B. Climate and APPENDIX A: Water and Climate Dialogue Summary Statements Food Security: Implications for Research and Policy APPENDIX C. IWCAM Summary statements APPENDIX D. Climate and agricultural applications in the Caribbean: A case study of climate information use in sugar production in Trinidad (summary)

4. Three questions under the MACC framework: • Are planning strategies for water, agricultural and forest resources in the Caribbean supported by the climate record? • What additional pressures will be placed on these resources as a result of projected climatic variability and change? (3) What practical strategies may be engaged to reduce vulnerability and enhance social, economic and ecological resilience?

5. Characteristics of small island environments • Ecological/environmental • Geographical • Socio-economic • Historical and political

6. Climate change projections for the Caribbean region Trends • Avg. annual air temp 1 F • Sea level rise 10 cm (3.9 ins) per 100 yrs • Generally drier conditions Scenarios for Future Climate • 2-3 C • Drier mid-year, wetter end of year • Ocean surface warming • Salt water intrusion into freshwater • Some models suggest more persistent ENSO-like conditions and less but more intense more intense tropical storms (5-10% windspeed)

8. Changes in the total amount of precipitation and in its frequency and intensity directly affect the magnitude and timing of runoff and the intensity of floods and droughts; however, at present, specific regional effects are uncertain The impacts of climate change will depend on the baseline conditions of the water supply system and the ability of water resource managers to respond not only to climate change but also to population growth and changes in demands, technology, and economic, social and legislative conditions Note: the latter are also “baseline” conditions

9. Where does climate variability come from? • NAO • TA • ENSO

13. Sugar-industry operations chain Cane cultivation • Planting schedule • Pesticide and • herbicide applications • IPM application • Irrigation timing • Runoff/erosion control • Fire management Harvest operations and transport Milling and Sugar production • Initiation of harvest • Completion of harvest • Selective harvesting • Road repair • Soil compaction and • field conditions • Fire management Marketing and Shipping • Milling initiation • Cane and • sugar storage • Likelihood of • meeting quota • Shipping timing • (delays etc) • storage • requirement • Secondary economies impact, minimizing environmental impacts, land-use/settlements

19. Non-ENSO or Atlantic multi-decadal mode of global sea surface temperature(SST) 1870-2000. (A) spatial correlations between first EOF and Atlantic SSTs; (B) temporal reconstruction of variability averaged over the rectangle in A (Goldenberg et all 2001)

20. Caribbean hurricane tracks and strength during (A) warm and (B) cold Atlantic multidecadal modes

21. The question remains “ Can we produce reliable baselines for planning give the large amount of year to year and decade to decade variations in the Caribbean?” • Need for careful monitoring and inventory of critical variables and indicators (available and gaps) • Need for “upscaling” local climate/met./hydro data and experience as well as “downscaling” models (precision vs. accuracy)

22. …viewed from Sectors Assessment Information and Decision Support Systems Knowledge-based Products Climate Simulations Observations and Monitoring Interdisciplinary Research The Decision Mineral & Fossil Fuel Extraction Agriculture & silviculture Urban Development Water & Sustainability Ecosystem & Land Use Management Conservation & Biodiversity Health & Disease and more… Recreation

23. Integrated Water Resource Assessments Assessment of biophysical impacts on: • hydrologic resources, • water quality, and • aquatic ecosystem integrity. Assessment of socio-economic impacts on: • demand from market water use sectors, and • water resources management systems

24. Water resources adaptations Supply adaptation: • modification of existing physical infrastructure; • construction of new infrastructure; and • alternative management of the existing water supply systems Demand adaptation: • conservation and improved efficiency; • technological change; and • market/price-driven transfers to other activities.

27. Trends and conditioning factors • Unit(s) of analysis: Upstream-downstream, watershed, urban • Relevant hydro-climatic variables: data,qc, uncertainties • Demands : Scale, trends and criticality • Reliability of supply and distribution • Separation of regulatory and operational responsibilities • Integration of water quantity and quality • Security of rights • Incorporation of climate issues in existing networks priorities and policies • Post-audits of past events and technical interventions - if we did or are doing everything possible why did it work or not work?

28. Established frameworks for water allocation:national level • Legal basis- water rights, legal/regulatory framework • Institutional base-Govt. and Non-govt. Mandates,responsibilities and practices • Technical base-monitoring, assessment, decision support modeling • Financial and economic aspects-costs/benefits,pricing trading • Participation • Structural and development base-water supply and operations, users

29. If so………… ………So what

30. Optimizing the net social benefit • Difficulty in dealing with all related social aims of water/natural resource uses • Difficulty in forging agreed-upon criteria for program evaluation • Lack of progress in comprehensive integrated management and in coordinating watersheds plans • Lack of comprehensive assessments of projects and initiatives

31. “Sufficient, reliable data are not available or shared at present to undertake a thorough analysis of the multiple threats to water resources, forestry, or food security” e.g. water consumption rates (availability per capita) and access to network water and sanitation facilities: changing levels of domestic water use, deterioration? Of piped water, tourism, costs of obtaining water

32. IWCAM… • Institutional mechanisms must be put in place at the national and regional level, to undertake the regular dissemination of user-friendly information on such technologies as well as to assist with the training of nationals in the use of such technology • Introduction of incentives to encourage the use of appropriate What does “capacity building” mean in this context?

33. Assessment ….viewed from Information chain Information and Decision Support Systems Knowledge-based Products Observations and Monitoring Climate Simulations Interdisciplinary Research Observations and Monitoring Interdisciplinary Research The Decision The Decision • Framing the question • Synthesis tools • Data assimilation & visualization • Complexity models • Scenario development and testing • Understanding methodologies • Place-based • Network design • Platforms • Appropriate mix of observations • Quality assurance and control • Types of models • Scale • Temporal • Spatial • Performancemetrics • Climate simulations & scenarios • Social trends • Demographics • Energy use • Land use • Institutions • Policies • Laws • Values • Politics • Dialog, not two monologues • Place-based and sector-based • User oriented • Scenarios and probabilistic outcomes • Synthesis • Distributed dissemination • New technologies • Interactive • User friendly • Flexible Information and Decision Support Systems The Decision Knowledge-based Products Climate Simulations Knowledge-based Products Observations and Monitoring Climate Simulations Interdisciplinary Research Interdisciplinary Research Improved Decision Process Observations and Monitoring The Decision The Decision Interdisciplinary Research The Decision Climate Simulations Observations and Monitoring Interdisciplinary Research The Decision

34. Create a matrix of functional responsibilities of water-related Ministries and organizations to identify pathwaysfor decision-making 1.Establishing and consolidate a viable scientific basis for water resources management sector and for (inter)national (water) policies • Initiating a multi-stakeholder process that builds the knowledge to cope with climate variability and change. • Building and share knowledge and information by bridging climate variability/change and water communities 4. Raising awareness of the issues relating climate and water, and broaden scientific, political and water managers participation in the discussion

36. Understand Current Vulnerability and Assess Trends • Effects Related to Altered Resources • Characterize the Risk of Climatic Variations and Review Past and Potential Responses • National Food Balance • Institutional Development • Household Food Poverty • Income Components • Cultural Preferences • Demography • Individual Food Deprivation • Nutritional Status • Health Status • Social Status: Three pillars of food security: food production, economic access to available food, and nutritional security Which group(s) really maintain these pillars?

37. Developing effective decision environments (a role for C5) Establish Regional Climate and Natural Resources Roundtables (which also provide for data sharing) • Serve as a clearinghouse mechanism for promoting, initiating and facilitating climate change programs and policies; • Review national strategies for enhancing the objectives of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and advising government on the way forward Such Roundtables should: • Evaluate options, information, and technology and to examine the sectors that will most benefit from these inputs among existing institutions • Explore the feasibility of establishing a regional plan of action to identify and adapt, where appropriate, successful examples of water conservation and watershed programs; • Identify entry points for information at different levels of governance (not just information provision)

38. Indeterminate Climate and cross-scale watershed issues: Linear vs. Adaptive management Long-term Decade Year Seasonal Monthly Daily Hourly Household-municipal- National Global Parish/County Regional

39. Developing prototypes or pilot studies for climate impacts assessments • Select the exposure unit (usually at the watershed) • Define the study area and critical issue • Determine general data availability and adequacy • Select a time horizon • Identify trends and influences on trend for critical issues • Identify a preliminary range of adaptations • Determine the need for integration across sectors Problem-orientation • Do we really know how we adjust to drought condtions?

40. How do we effectively integrate these two?……

42. Approaches to risk communication and associated assumptions ___________________________________________________________________________ ApproachAssumptions and actions Development and From the risk expert to the public--finite and delivery of a risk message uni-directional Aimed at bringing public views into line with expert views Assumes expert view has more validity for decision- making Dialogue about risk Interactive exchange of risk information--continuous Aimed at balancing the content of risk message Assumes both views contribute to decision-making Social processes Engage in a process that addresses concerns about risk of risk communication Aimed at enhancing understanding among stakeholders (DECISIVE AND NON-DECISIVE). Assumes the process is as important as the product _____________________________________________________________________________ i.e. more than a one-way or even two-way street

43. Link pilots to strong institutional mechanisms: Realizing implementation • Past recommendations and interventions: How effective were they? What criteria are used for evaluation? • Not simply communicating after project is over Involving local organizations in planning and implementation • Partnerships (not just stakeholder assessments) • How is the common interest pursued and secured? Where and why have particular local organizations been successful and sustained?

44. Mainstreaming…….. • What partnerships need to be engaged? What activities already exist? • Goals of participants: What is being valued? (by “experts and role of experts”, state agencies, NGOs, local communities) Whose agenda are we agreeing on? • Trends: Robustness: choice, inventory and baselines • Conditioning factors: reconstructing influences on events, past interventions • Projections (scenarios and uncertainties) • Alternatives: acting under uncertain information • Pathways to decision-making: ,data, methods,Entry points: salience, legitimacy, acceptability, context

45. How does innovation occur?Rate of adoption of knowledge-based innovation in water resources agenciesY= f(Xi) Xi = (compatibility of innovation with needs and values .capacity and characteristics .1/complexity of innovation .communicability within agency .communication networks outside (incl. other resources and other national water agencies) .% of initial innovators .investment in innovation

46. Rate of adoption of knowledge-based innovation Y= f(Xi) Xi = .observability in practice:who is else is involved? .evaluation of support tools:DSS,pricing (transfer of tested and untested approaches) .respect conferred)