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Greenskies 2007

Greenskies 2007. 8 th BITRE Transport Colloquium 19 June 2008. Australian airspace. Aviation and Climate Change. Dr Robert Porteous. Manager, Strategic Planning Airservices Australia. BITRE 2008. Outline. Aviation and Climate Change. Aviation Emissions Industry outlook Global

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Greenskies 2007

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  1. Greenskies 2007 8th BITRE Transport Colloquium 19 June 2008 Australian airspace Aviation and Climate Change Dr Robert Porteous Manager, Strategic PlanningAirservices Australia

  2. BITRE 2008 Outline Aviation and Climate Change • Aviation Emissions • Industry outlook • Global • Australia • Options • Short-term • Medium-term • Long-term • Policy

  3. BITRE 2008 Contrails over Europe PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS “ One of the most readily visible signs of human presence, is the occurrence of contrails from aircraft in the upper atmosphere. They …. can be seen over virtually all parts of the world as white streaks across the sky. " Australian astronautDr Andy Thomas.

  4. BITRE 2008 Visible Impact Aviation CO2 Emissions 2 percent of CO2 Emissions 14 percent of Transport CO2 Emissions Uplift 2- 4 times 700 million tonnes per annum

  5. BITRE 2008 Aviation and Emissions CO2 H2O NOx Cruise – 100-150 kg/min • Phases of Flight • kg CO2 per min: • Taxi 30 • Take-off 400-500 • Cruise 100-150 SOx NOx CO Noise Unburnt hydrocarbons Particulates Take-off – 400-500 kg/min Taxi – 30 kg/min

  6. BITRE 2008 Aircraft FuelEfficiency • 40% reduction over 20 years • US – Older fleet • Average aircraft size steady or decreasing • Australia – Modern • Average aircraft size generally increasing

  7. BITRE 2008 Global Industry Outlook • Strong growth: • Growing demand • Greater passenger numbers • Vigorous growth of low-cost carriers • Greater utilisation of secondary airports

  8. BITRE 2008 Global Industry Outlook • Profitability uncertain • Consolidation • Airlines • Routes • Credit squeeze • Rising fuel prices • Environment • Congestion • Safety • Skills shortage

  9. BITRE 2008 AustralianIndustry Outlook • Increased growth • Profits steady • Strong Aussie $ • Consolidation • Low cost carriers • Efficient ATM • Modern fleet • Efficient technologies

  10. BITRE 2008 Options for the future • Short-term • Medium-term • Long-term • Policy options

  11. BITRE 2008 Short-Term Options • Modernise fleet • Winglets • Carbon Offsets • Efficient ATM • Air Traffic Flow Management • Research • ASPIRE • SESAR

  12. BITRE 2008 Medium-Term Options • Fleet upgrades • Alt Fuel trials • Gate-to-Gate • 4D Trajectories • Flexible Use of Airspace • Collaborative Decision Making • Policy – Noise vs Emissions

  13. BITRE 2008 Long-Term Options • Efficient Operations • Global Gate-to-Gate • Regional Upper Air Space • Alternative fuel and engines

  14. BITRE 2008 Policy Responses • Incentives for collaboration • Taxation • Emissions trading schemes: • Global not industry • Research • International approach

  15. BITRE 2008 The Future • Aviation outlook: • Cautious optimism • Emissions: • Some short-term response but look to other industries too • Alternative Fuels: • A role for Australia?

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