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Prof. em. Ron Lesthaeghe

Prof. em. Ron Lesthaeghe. Vruchtbaarheidstransities: 1750-2010. Oorzaken & Gevolgen. Landen proportioneel aan hun bevolkingsomvang, 2002. Ron Lesthaeghe. Twee Vruchtbaarheidstransities.

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Prof. em. Ron Lesthaeghe

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  1. Prof. em. Ron Lesthaeghe

  2. Vruchtbaarheidstransities:1750-2010 Oorzaken & Gevolgen. Landen proportioneel aan hun bevolkingsomvang, 2002. Ron Lesthaeghe

  3. Twee Vruchtbaarheidstransities • De initiële vruchtbaarheidsdaling en de gestage verbetering van de vruchtbaarheidscontrole & anticonceptie. 1750-1975 in Europa, nog gaande in meerdere ontwikkelingslanden. Verdwijnen van 3e en hogere rang kinderen. 2. De grote uitstel van ouderschap, partiële of gehele recuperatie op oudere leeftijd, en vruchtbaarheid structureel & langdurig onder het vervangingspeil. Toename kinderloosheid. Vaak samenlopend met ontplooiing nieuwe en niet-conventionele gezinsvormen => “Second Demographic Transition”. Ontwikkelt zich na de baby boom van de jaren 60.

  4. THREE CONDITIONS FOR INNOVATION:R and W and A • Ready = new behavior must be advantageous (conscious cost/benefit calculus) • Willing = new behavior must be ethically acceptable (religious and moral legitimacy) • Able = there must be technical means for its realization (material, legal, organizational, often at macro level)

  5. …EN OP MACRO NIVEAU : READY => Sociale en economische ontwikkeling WILLING => Culturele en mentale “revolutie” ABLE => Family Planning, gezondheidsvoorzieningen, legale aanpassingen.

  6. De conditie die het traagst evolueert remt de ganse transitie af: deze wordt “the limiting condition”, de “flessenhalsconditie” • READY = ECONOMICALLY ADVANTAGEOUS • WILLING = CULTURALLY ACCEPTABLE • ABLE = MEANS AVAILABLE S = R and W and A The slowest moving condition can become a bottleneck.

  7. De eerste vruchtbaarheidstransitie • Illustratie van R én W én A : het Belgische voorbeeld => W als flessenhalsconditie. • De wereldsituatie (totale vruchtbaarheidscijfers TFR en hun evolutie)

  8. Delta Ig = proportion of total marital fertility decline already realised by 1910 Vote 1919 = Proportion of Votes for 3 secular parties Liberal + Socialist + Communist

  9. Long term spatial continuity in Belgium: Relationship between 2SDT features (cohabitation 1981 and non-marital fertility 1992) and early 19th Century secularization. r = +.832 r = +.900

  10. Decline in National TFRs between 1970 and 2000, LDCs and MDCs Median level 1970 Median level 2000 TFR= 2.1 TFR=1.5

  11. Totale vruchtbaarheidscijfers, ca 2006 5 en > 4 tot 5 3 tot 4 2 tot 3 < 2

  12. 2e transitie : uitstel van ouderschap, differentiële recuperatie op oudere leeftijden 1. Eerste uitstelbewegingen (Noord & West Europa) starten einde jaren 60, en leiden tot dalingen van de Totale Vruchtbaarheidscijfers (TFR) tot onder 2 kinderen. Typisch dal : 1.5 tot 1.6 kinderen. Deze landen beëindigen de uitstel na 2000, en hebben vrij sterke recuperatie van de vruchtbaarheid na de leeftijd van 30 jaar. => herstel van de periode TFRs tot 1.7 a 2.0 kinderen. 2. Zuid en Centraal* Europa: sterker uitstel en minder recuperatie => TFRs onder de 1.5 en vaak onder de 1.3 = “Lowest Low Fertility” *Omvat Duitsland, Oostenrijk, Zwitserland. 3. Voorheen communistische landen kennen spectaculaire uitstel gedurende de jaren 90. Sommigen (Tsjech Rep bijv.) recupereren beter dan andere (Rusland bijv). TFRs dalen tot onder 1.3 en zelfs onder 1.0 (ex DDR) => tweede groep “Lowest Low Fertility”

  13. But a positive association between SDT and period total fertility : classic case of split correlation All stronger recuperation countries No or weak recup & late starters 1.50 Source of plot : Tomas Sobotka, 2008. Interpretation : Ron Lesthaeghe 2008.

  14. TROUGH RECUP PTFR(t+30) = A + B1*BaseCTFR(t=0) + B2*TROUGH(t) + B3*RECUP(t) + e Trough = deficit in cumulated CASFR at age 30 compared to base Recup = part of trough recuperated by age 40 Sample= all never communist European countries, baseline = cohort born 1940-44, predicting PTFRs in period 1960-2005. RESULT : baseCTFR only Rsq. = .505, baseCTFR + Trough Rsq= .673, all 3 including Recup then Rsq= .793. Hence : RECUP IS ESSENTIAL. ONLY countries dip below a TFR below 1.5 that have no or weak recuperation. The “Bongaarts’ babies” have remained in his cupboard in a large number of countries, and will stay there for as long as there is no recuperation of fertility after age 30.

  15. SDT and TFRs : inconsistent or double effect ? Social & Economic constraints (education, employment, housing …) _ + Postponement Self-actualisation; “open future” Overall fertility SDT + Emancipation: gender equity Recuperation + Affirmative policies re gender roles, child care, reduced opportunity costs of motherhood.

  16. Gevolgen van de vruchtbaarheidsdaling • 1. Afremmen bevolkingsgroei • 2. Bij structurele vruchtbaarheid onder vervangingspeil = doorhollende bevolkingskrimp (negative or “Shrink” momentum”) • 3. Extra bevolkingsveroudering bovenop deze veroorzaakt door verlenging levensduur.

  17. Pierre-François Verhulst : De logistische curve, 1842 (Of het wiskundig model van limieten van groei)

  18. Omvang wereldbevolking 7 miljard 2011

  19. ! Log schaal !

  20. Stable population age structures with constant e0= 80 years, but varying total fertility rates. (1.58 to 2.20)

  21. De gevolgen van lage vruchtbaarheid: doorlopende krimp.

  22. Absolute aantallen ouderen van 65+ jaar

  23. Voor een volgende keer : “ ARE MIGRANTS SUBSTITUTES FOR BIRTHS ?”

  24. articles and papers can be downloaded from http://www.sdt.psc.isr.umich.edu http://www.vub.ac.be/SOCO/Lesthaeghe.htm

  25. Prof. Marleen Temmerman

  26. The Exceptionalism of Family Planning Prof. Dr. Marleen Temmerman UGent Debat « Vruchtbaarheid en overbevolking » Handelsbeurs 26 oktober 2011

  27. 7 Billion People …and Beyond Source: « State of the World Population 2011 », UNFPA

  28. 7 Billion People …and Beyond • Global: • + 80 million people/year • 43% is <25 years old • 2050: 2.5 billion people will be >60 years old • Asia: • 60% of world population • Africa: • population will triple by 2100

  29. 7 Billion People …and Beyond Source: Presentation Ivan Hermans 3-3-2012, UNFPA

  30. 7 Billion People …and Beyond • Paradoxes: • Fewer children <-> population is rising • High fertility rates in poor countries <-> low fertility in industrialized countries

  31. “The evidence is overwhelming, the MDGs are difficult or impossible to achieve with the current levels of population growth in the least developed countries and regions” - All Party Parliamentary Group on Population, Development and Reproductive Health, March 2011-

  32. Fertility Rates Source: “World Population Prospects The 2008 Revision”, UN Population Division,

  33. Fertility Rates Source: « State of the World Population 2011 », UNFPA

  34. Fertility Rates • Fertility decline & grow of number of women in reproductive age • Progress in reproductive health but 215 million women in unmet need for family planning: = women who want to space or limite number of children but are using unreliable contraceptive methods or nothing

  35. Unmet Need for Family Planning • Actual number: highest in Asia • Proportion: largest in Sub Sahara Africa Source: Sedgh G. et al., New York: Guttmacher Institute 2007

  36. Unmet Need for Family Planning • GLOBAL: • Richest quintile: 15% in unmet need • Poorest quintile: • 33% in unmet need Source: USAID. BRIDGE. Population Reference Bureau (PRB). Family Planning Worldwide, 2008 Data Sheet.

  37. Unmet Need for Family Planning The gap on contraceptive use between rich and poor starts to close only when contraceptives become more accessible & affordable. Highest among jongest and oldest age groups Particularly at risk: sexually active unmarried women

  38. Contributions of Fulfilling Unmet Need for FP DIRECTLY: • 590,000 newborn deaths could be averted annually • Infant and under five mortality rates would drop by 24% and 35%, respectively • Infants born to teen mothers have twice the risk of dying in their first year than infants born to women in their 20s and 30s • Lowering of maternal mortality due to unsafe abortions • Maternal mortality could drop by 25-35% • …

  39. Contributions of Fulfilling Unmet Need for FP INDIRECTLY: • More equality between men and women and raise women’s status in society • Lower fertility accounts for 25-40% of economic growth in developing countries • Positive impact on individual household economies • Women and girls spend more time in education, training, employment • Enables women to be more active in economic, and political life • Provide cost savings in the health care sector • ...

  40. FP as a Cost Effective Investment • Cost fulfilling unmet need: annual average 1.2 USD/women. • Total costs of services: increase of 3.6 billion USD. • Savings in newborn and maternal health: 5.1 billion USD. For every dollar spend on FP, 4 USD can be SAVED!

  41. “For each additional 10 million dollars received for family planning, we can avert 114,000 unintended pregnancies, 50,000 unplanned births, 48,000 abortions, 15,000 miscarriages and more than 3,000 infant deaths" -Thoraya Obaid (ex-Executive Director UNFPA)-

  42. FP as an Ecological Investment Source: Malcolm Potts, Bixbey Center for Population, Health and Sustainability, University of California, Berkley

  43. Investing in Meeting the Unmet Need • Increase access to contraceptive supplies and services by assuring: • Choice • Quality • Availability • Afordability • Avoid stock outs • Add to National Essentional Medicines List • Sufficient budgets

  44. Investing in Meeting the Unmet Need (Global) Includes all donor institutions (including developed country governments), foundations/NGOS and development banks Source: UNFPA & “Resource Flows for Population Activities”

  45. Investing in Meeting the Unmet Need (Belgium) Source: « Een kritische analyse van de federale ontwikkelingshulp voor sekusele en reproductieve gezondheid », Sensoa, september 2011.

  46. Investing in Meeting the Unmet Need Increase political commitment Realise FP policies Empowerment of women Realise equality between men and women Block cultural/traditional barriers Call for the ‘exceptionalism of FP’ based on lessons learned from the HIV/AIDS approach

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