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India’s Water Futures: 2025/2050 – Scenarios and Issues

STRATEGIC ANALYSIS OF RIVER LINKING PROJECT [NRLP] Phase I workshop INDIA’S WATER FUTURES TO 2025/2050 ISSUES AND SCENARIOS. India’s Water Futures: 2025/2050 – Scenarios and Issues. Phase I Workshop - “ The Strategic Analysis of India’s River Linking Project” [NRLP ]

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India’s Water Futures: 2025/2050 – Scenarios and Issues

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  1. STRATEGIC ANALYSIS OF RIVER LINKING PROJECT [NRLP]Phase I workshop INDIA’S WATER FUTURES TO 2025/2050 ISSUES AND SCENARIOS

  2. India’s Water Futures: 2025/2050 – Scenarios and Issues • Phase I Workshop - “The Strategic Analysis of India’s River Linking Project” [NRLP] • IWMI NRLP Project - Part of the Challenge Program for Water and Food [CPWF] • IWMI is the lead center of the project and several national partners contribute • Tushaar Shah - Project leader • Upali Amarasinghe – Coordinate the activities from IWMI Delhi office • Project Web site - http://nrlp.iwmi.org

  3. Duration Objectives Time line IWMI-CP project - NRLP analysis Phase I India’s Water Futures Analysis April 2005 - April 2006 3 Y E A R S Phase II Analysis of NRLP- How adequate is it? January 2006 - March 2007 Phase III Alternative water sector perspective plan April 2007 - April 2008

  4. Second Phase - Analysis of NRLP • Phase I workshop - March 2006 • Inception workshop for Phase II - April 2006 • Advisory committee meeting - May 2006 • Workshop 1, Phase II – December 2006 • Workshop 2, Phase II - March 2007

  5. Grain and non-grain crop demand projections Regional demographic patterns Regional economic growth Food consumption patterns Feed demand Increasing food trade/National self sufficiency targets India’s water futures scenario analysis Water availability assessment • Total/Potentially utilizable water resources • Environmental water demand Water Demand projections • Irrigated water demand • Water saving technologies • Water productivity growth • Rain water harvesting • Domestic water demand • Industrial/Service sector water demand • Grain and non-grain crop production projections • Future of irrigation/ agriculture • Rainfed potential • Water productivity improvements • Groundwater irrigation

  6. Water Availability assessment - AD MOhile/BK Anand • Assess total water resources, potentially utilizable water resources of river basins

  7. 2. Environmental flow requirement of India river basins - Vladimir Smakhtin/ M.Anputhas/Several national partners • NCIWRD Environmental water demand estimate is too low • Projections for 2050 is only 20 km3 • EFR estimates based on flow duration curves • Estimated for five Environmental Management Classes based Ecological description/Management perspective Class A – Natural conditions Class B – Slightly modified Class C – Moderately modified Class D – Largely modified Class E – Seriously modified Class F – Critically modified

  8. 2. Environmental flow requirement of India river basins - Vladimir Smakhtin/ M.Anputhas/Several national partners

  9. 3. Regional demographic projections – Aslam Mahmood/ Amitabh Kundu • Aslam/Kundu projections are based on • 2001 census population (age/gender break up) • latest regional mortality/fertility information • after incorporating HIV/AIDS impacts • Regional (state) population projections

  10. 4. Regional economic growth/Industrial/ service sector water demand projections KV Raju/ RS Deshpande • Needs critical analysis on • Implications of changes in patterns of economic growth on water demand drivers • Increasing regional water demands in industrial/service sectors • Regions with competing demand from different sectors • Implications on meeting competing demands

  11. 5. Changes in regional consumption patterns – Implications for food and feed demand • OP Singh • Showed rural and urban food consumption patterns • Described the changing food consumption and expenditure patterns • Needs further investigation • Increasing non-gain and animal products consumption • How the needs are met, who produce, and where ? • Who (producers) and which regions are likely to respond fast to changing patterns • Implications for regional water demand

  12. 6. Future of irrigation/Agriculture • Anik Bhaduri/Upali Amarasinghe/Tushaar Shah • Estimated contribution from factors for yield and cropping intensity growth in different regions • Projected scenarios of yield and area growth Further work: Check data/data sources Cropping intensity estimates

  13. Irrigated area (> 30% irrigation) Rainfed area (< 30% irrigation ) 7. Potential of rainfed agriculture in India Bharat Sharma, K.P.R.VIttal/K.J.Rao, • Challenges: • Productivity improvements in rainfed areas • of high rainfall variation, droughts, water scarcities, low efficient rainwater use • Identification rainfed districts • Agro ecological regions, extent of irrigation, crop extent • 165 districts • Estimation of potential surplus runoff for rainwater harvesting • 11.2 km3 • Estimating productivity growth from supplemental irrigation • 11% to 27% in drought years

  14. Irrigated area (> 30% irrigation) Rainfed area (< 30% irrigation ) 7. Potential of rainfed agriculture in India Bharat Sharma, K.P.R.VIttal/K.J.Rao, • Further work • Contribution to food and livelihood security • Possible diversification of crops to increase water productivity in rainfed crops • Assessment of impact of collecting excess runoff • Identifying the extent of supplemental irrigation needs • Identifying the water harvesting needs

  15. 8. Water saving techniques/water productivity increase/Water harvesting and groundwater recharge Dinesh Kumar, Madar Samad, Upali Amarasinghe and O. P. Singh; Chaitali Purohit and Malkit Singh Didyala • Water Saving technologies • Current extent • Drip 2.7 lac ha, Sprinklers 9 lacs ha (numbers ????) • Potential contribution • Efficiency • Surface 30%-35%, Sprinklers 50-60% , Drip 85-90% • Potential area under WST • 7.9 million ha (17% of the total crop area) • West flowing rivers north of Tapi in Gujarat and Rajasthan, Sabarmati, Banas, Narmada, East flowing rivers of Peninsular India, Mahanadi, Parts of Indus basin

  16. 8. Water saving techniques/water productivity increase/Impacts of water harvesting Dinesh Kumar, Madar Samad, Upali Amarasinghe and O. P. Singh; Chaitali Purohit and Malkit Singh Didyala • Water productivity variation in irrigation • Significant variation of productivity • Source of irrigation (groundwater, conjunctive, surface) • increase in inputs use and positive impacts with reliable water use • Water Harvesting • Opportunities/ Constraints

  17. 9. Water Supply and Demand Upali Amarasinghe/Tushaar Shah • Discussed key drivers and some changes • Compared with NCIWRD commission projections • Sensitivity analysis of water demand projections

  18. 9. Water Supply and Demand Upali Amarasinghe/Tushaar Shah

  19. Total water demand - BAU Scenario

  20. For more details http://nrlp.iwmi.orgThank you

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