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BELL-WORK

Understand theoretical, experimental, and subjective probability with practical examples. Learn to calculate likelihood using various methods in probability theory.

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BELL-WORK

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  1. BELL-WORK Simplify (a) 5x + 15 5x – 15 (b) -4x3 . x3 – 2x4 (c) x2 + 4x – 5 1 – x (d) 4 ∙ 3 . 5a 2a2

  2. BELL-WORK Simplify (e) q + 5 ∙ 4q. 2 q + 4 (f) x2 – 16.∙ 7x 6xx + 4

  3. CW Review

  4. Exam 4.1 Exam will be on Monday!

  5. Missing Class tomorrow?

  6. HW 4.3(c) Due tomorrow: PW 12-7 #1-11, 19-26

  7. HW 4.3(b) Solutions 8. PLOT; Min = 42, Q1 = 77.5, Q2 = 98, Q3 = 184.5, Max = 220 11. PLOT; Min = 20, Q1 = 24.75, Q2 = 32.5, Q3 = 45, Max = 50 13. 50% 75% 6th period 1st IR = 16, 6th IR = 16

  8. Guiding question: What are three types of probability?

  9. Probability Probability is the likelihood of a particular event happening. Event: the outcome/result we are interested in. We write probability of an event as: P(Event) 0≤ P(Event) ≤ 1 P(Event) = 0 : event impossible P(Event) = 1 : event certain

  10. Probability Total probability is 1. P(Event) + P(Event not occurring) = 1 P(Event not occurring) = 1 – P(Event) P(Event) = 1 – P(Event not occurring)

  11. Probability Three types of probability: Theoretical: Probability in theory/perfect world P(Event) = # of times event occurs total number of outcomes Experimental: Probability based on an actual experiment. P(Event) = # of times event occurs # of times experiment is done Subjective: Probability based on experience, opinion, or intuition.

  12. Theoretical Probability A dartboard has 12 equally sized sections numbered from 1 to 12. • What is the probability of throwing a dart that lands on an odd number? • What is the probability of throwing a dart that lands on a multiple of 3? • What is the probability of throwing a dart that lands on a number that is not a multiple of 3? TB pg 760 # 1-4, 10-21

  13. Experimental Probability In a survey on favorite pets 28 people chose dogs as their favorite pet, 15 chose cats, 4 chose birds, and 3 chose fish. If a survey participant is chosen at random, what is the probability that he or she prefers dogs as a pet? TB pg 759 Got It? 4 A quality control worker samples 500 LCD monitors and finds cosmetic defects in 3 of them. If the company manufactures a run of 12,000 monitors, how many of them would you expect to have a cosmetic defect? TB pg 760 Got It? 5 TB pg 761 # 28-32

  14. Probability Identify the method of calculating probability that resulted in the following statements: (a) I’m 100% certain that you’ll be happy with this car. Subjective probability • Sean flipped a coin 100 times and got 42 heads. He concludes that the probability of getting heads on a flip of his coin is 0.42. Experimental probability • Based on data from the Department of Transportation, the chance of dying in an automobile accident is 1 in 7000 (per year). Experimental probability • The chance of rolling a 7 with a 12-sided die is 1/12. Theoretical probability

  15. Probability Identify the method of calculating probability that resulted in the following statements: • Jeanne rolled a die 100 times and 12 of those times got a 6. She concludes that the probability of getting 6 on a roll of her die is 0.12. Experimental probability • Li noted that there are six possible outcomes when you roll a die and 6 is one of those outcomes. He concluded that the probability of getting 6 on a roll of his die is 1/6. Theoretical probability • Chantal noted that there are two possible outcomes when you flip a coin and heads is one of those outcomes. She concluded that the probability of getting heads on a flip of her coin is ½ or 0.5 Theoretical probability

  16. Probability Identify the method of calculating probability that resulted in the following statements: • Roger conducted a survey in his math class and found that 15% of the students are international students. He concluded that the probability of a student in his math class being an international student is 0.15. Experimental probability If there are 35 students in the class, how many of them are international? 5 students

  17. Who wants to answer the Guiding question? What are three types of probability?

  18. Quiz 4.2 Do corrections for HW!!!!! Signature

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