Development of 2000-04 Baseline Period & 2018 Projection Fire Emissions Inventories

1. Development of 2000-04 Baseline Period &2018 Projection Fire Emissions Inventories Fire Emissions Joint Forum February 9, 2005

2. Background – WRAP Fire Emissions Work • The Fire Emissions Joint Forum has developed policies and criteria for implementation of different stringencies and specific elements of smoke management programs. • Fire emissions have been directly assessed in terms of pollutant estimation methods, emission projections and tracking. • Assessments of the potential application of non-burning alternatives to fire, and other emission reduction techniques/methods will continue to receive analysis to support the application of annual emission goals. • Emissions have been categorized into natural and anthropogenic for regional haze impact analysis. • 1996 & 2018 Fire EIs were developed for §309 SIPs (during 2001-03). • 2002 Actual Fire EIs were developed (2 phases, during 2004).

3. Regional Haze Planning Fire EIs • Switching gears from actual to planning EIs. • Purpose of this project is to develop fire emissions inventories for regional haze planning purposes, specifically to be able compare the present to future scenarios. • Wildfire, wildland fire use, prescribed fire, rangeland fire, and agricultural fire EIs will be representative of fire emissions during the Regional Haze Rule’s baseline monitoring period (2000-04) and describe potential inventory scenarios for the initial projection year of 2018.

4. Baseline Period Fire EIs • Gather relevant activity data for 2000-04 period to determine emissions estimates. • Analyze where and when fire emissions for the 2000-04 period are different from the WRAP 2-phase “Actual 2002” inventory report http://www.wrapair.org/forums/fejf/tasks/FEJFtask7.html – assess differences & similarities using: • Appropriate geographic scales • Use statistical significance tests

5. Baseline Period Fire EIs, cont. • Assess whether the temporal and spatial distribution of the actual 2002 EIs for all types of fire can be preserved or can reasonably be modified to represent the 2000-04 period. • For WRAP region jurisdictions with Smoke Management Programs, gather data to calculate the benefit of Emissions Reduction Techniques applied in each SMP. • Prepare a 2000-04 baseline period EI similar in scope and scale to the actual 2002 fire EI.

6. Fire Projection EI Scenarios • Assess the peer-reviewed literature, gather/document expert opinions, and analyze to determine where and when both controllable and uncontrollable anthropogenic and natural fire emissions for the 2018 period would likely be different from the 2000-04 baseline period. • Document the reasons for any conclusions that would produce controllable anthropogenic fire emissions estimates in 2018 that vary markedly from the baseline period emissions. • Represent individual smoke management agencies’ plans for applying ERTs to agricultural and prescribed fire, including the potential to ban agricultural burning altogether.

7. Fire Projection EI Scenarios, cont. • For the agricultural fire projection EIs, start with the baseline period EI, and apply applicable WRAP region fire emissions regulations and smoke management programs adopted in rule or ordinance as of December 2004. • Carefully apply the FEJF Annual Emissions Goals policy to these EIs, as the projection scenarios are planning EIs for comparison to the baseline period EI. • Prepare 3 scenarios (high, medium, low) for the 2018 projection year EI similar in scope and scale to the 2000-04 baseline fire EI.

8. Deliverables • 2000-04 WRAP region baseline period EI for Wx, WFU, Rx on wildlands, rangeland, and agricultural burning. • 2018 WRAP region projection EIs for Wx, WFU, Rx on wildlands, rangeland, and agricultural burning. • 3 projection EIs: • Low emissions year • Medium/Average? emissions year • High emissions year

9. Deliverables • Baseline and projection EI files will be categorized and coded appropriately as natural or anthropogenic emissions per the FEJF policy. • Emissions will be totaled by event, with the vertical release height [plume rise], chemical speciation profiles, & diurnal patterns specified separately for use in modeling. • Each event will be classified into the high, medium, or low scenarios for the appropriate fire source categories. • Data formats: SMOKE IDA, NIF, Excel • Fire EI files to be loaded and available from the WRAP EDMS (http://www.wrapedms.org/).

10. Proposed [likely?] Schedule • Early April 2005 – start work • May 20th - 2000-04 baseline EI files and draft documents • June 17th - 2000-04 baseline EI final documents • July 8th - 2018 proposed EI scenarios’ (3) draft assumptions and supporting documentation • August 11th - 2018 projection scenarios’ EI files and draft documents, and final report on 2018 projection analyses • August 31st - 2018 projection scenarios’ EI final documents and project report