Insights from the Great East Japan Earthquake: Survey Analysis in Sendai City

1. ASA 08/2013Lost in the Great East Japan Earthquake and Anxiety about the Future:An Analysis of 2011 Survey of the Earthquake Damage and Social Consciousness in Sendai City Yoichi Murase (Rikkyo University, Japan) muraseyo@gmail.com 1.Purpose 2.Data and Methods 3.Results • Basic Analysis • SEM of Anxiety for Future Life 4.Conclusions

2. 1. Purpose1.1. Research Background • Rising Inequality in many countries. • Recession after the Great Earthquake • Do Damage and Anxiety for Future Instability associate with Social Status? Economic status and social network have effect? • Some disaster studies said damages were large in poor areas. Ex. Hurricane Katrina in the US

3. Japan is relatively equal society, social class, racial, and religious conflicts are not large. 99% of people are Japanese. • However, Urban – Rural gap is large. • I focused comparing the Sendai and rural area. • Sendai: Largest city in Tohoku District, population One million. Tertiary Industry City, no large factory area or labor class poor area.

5. Sendai and most of large citieswere not near the ocean. Population of the Coast area was 0.5% in Sendai. now 0%. Not a large Tsunami Damage. • However many people have effect from the disaster. Damage of property is not small.

6. 1.2.Purpose of this study • What is the determinants of • Damage of Property by the Earthquake • Anxiety (Future life, Future Income) • Hypotheses • Economic status (economic resource) • Social network (relational resource, Social capital) • Education (informational resource, Cultural capital) • Working in Large Company … very important in Japan

7. 2.Data and Methods "Citizens' Consciousness Survey on Their Life and Disaster Prevention in Sendai and Senhoku" by Rikkyo University and Tohoku University • Sendai in November 2011 Sample size 2100 and 1532 answers (73% response rate) • Sendai panel survey in 2012 mail survey for 1532, 977 answers • Senhoku area (rural near Sendai) in November 2012. mail survey Sample size was 2006 and 1341 answers (67% response rate). Not using research companies. Aided by Rikkyo University Special Focus Fund for Promoting Research (Rikkyo SFR)

8. We hired 70 students and direct managed the survey

9. Sendai from Tohoku University

10. Central District of Sendai

11. Tsunami area now population 0

12. 3.Results3.1.Basic Analysis of Damage and Anxiety

16. Damage More than 40% answered less than $1000 US. 20% answered more than $10,000 US. Largest in old residential area (near the ocean). • Anxeity in 2011 Sendai 70% answered Yes. Stronger in 2012 and Senhoku (rural area). No relation with the areas.

19. Relational Resource (Social network with influential people) • Closeness with influential people. • Important for measuring people’s political power and background. • Old traditional people have more relations. Maybe not a new urban residents.

22. 3.2.Cause of Anxiety and Damage Structural Equation Model by SPSS AMOS • Final Dependent Variable : • Factor of Anxiety … Right sides of Figures Anxiety on Future Life Anxiety on Future Income • Damage Amount (JP Yen) • Independent Variables : Age, Education (years), Relational Resource, Property possession (Economic status; possession of fourteen items, house, PC, DVD player, etc. and used the total number of items), Household Income, etc. I omitted income because it is similar with property.

25. For Male • Cause of the anxiety on future life • Property possession (economic status) (-.18) • Income (-.17) • Residence year rate (.18) • Organization Size • Education • Relational resource had indirect effects • Amount of loss, Self employment dummy had no effect

26. Cause of Damage • Age • no relationship with property possession, education, etc.

27. For Female • Cause of Damage • Property possession • Relational resource • Residence year rate • Self employment dummy • Home owner dummy

28. Cause of the anxiety on future life • Property possession (economic status) (-.13) • Income (-.19) • Education (-.14) • Organization Size • Relational resource … no effect • Amount of loss, Self employment dummy had no effect

29. 4.Conclusion A new finding is the absence of a relationship between damage amount and economic status or education (for Male). • Main Cause of Damage was Age. Old house, old area.

30. Another finding is the relationship between anxiety and and economic status or relational resource. • Cause of the anxiety on future life • Relational resource (political power or connection) • Economic Status • Organization size • Age Anxiety (The Sense of Future Instability) is large among small power, poor, old people and female.

31. What is the interpretation of network effect? • Distance for power central • Indicator of New and Old resident • Indicator of hidden class: Elite Tokyo based people and Local people • Social network is very important in current Japan (post industrialized mobilized society). • Many social mobility, but existence of local people not moved to other area. • Social stratification of relational resource, not race or class, is important.

32. Thank you very much for your attention, and for people cooperate with the survey, Prof Kawamura of Tohoku Univ and students, Scientific Fund for Research (SFR) of Rikkyo University.