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Drought Update and Forecast September 17, 2013

Learn about Oklahoma's recent drought cycle, relief efforts, and future forecasts from State Climatologist Gary McManus. Explore historical drought patterns, El Nino influences, and the current agricultural outlook.

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Drought Update and Forecast September 17, 2013

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  1. Drought Update and ForecastSeptember 17, 2013 Gary McManus Associate State Climatologist Oklahoma Mesonet Oklahoma Climatological Survey

  2. When you want rain…

  3. Schedule a drought talk!

  4. Drought in Pictures

  5. North of Guymon, OK: April 2011

  6. Lake Tom Steed – 26% capacity

  7. Buffalo, OK: May 9, 2009

  8. May 14, 2011

  9. February 2013

  10. N of Cimarron County April 2013

  11. Cimarron County June 3, 2013

  12. Our 3-Year Drought Cycle • La Nina develops: Drought “begins” October 2010 • Intensified through summer 2011 • Hottest summer for any state on record • Relief began for most October 2011 • Miraculous recovery through March 2012 • Warm winter and spring! • Rainfall deficits again in April and May 2012

  13. 3-Year Drought Cycle (cont.) • Driest May-December on record • 2012 - Warmest year on record • Our climate pattern changed mid-February • Active weather pattern for most part (understatement of the decade!) • Very wet summer for most? • Mid-August through mid-September, dry • Drought intensifying some areas, being relieved in others

  14. 2013: Drought Relief

  15. Early February Drought Monitor 100% of the state in drought (100% severe)

  16. Feb. 15-Aug 17 rainfall totals Avg. of 24.5” (3.6” above normal)

  17. Summertime drought relief! 67% of the state out of drought

  18. Since then? Aug 18-Sept 17 Avg. of 0.8” (2.6” BELOW normal) 2nd driest on record statewide

  19. Drought building again 50% of the state back in drought

  20. Forecasts and Outlooks

  21. Next 7 days?

  22. Medium-term Outlooks: Sept 24-30 Increased odds of Warm and Wet Temperature Precipitation

  23. The coming cool season? No El Nino or La Nina?

  24. A Brief History of Drought

  25. El Nino

  26. Big droughts are always lurking Statewide avg. rainfall (1895-2012) 1910s drought 1930s drought 1950s drought 30-year wet signal Negative phase PDO Positive phase PDO

  27. Recent droughts are infants! YIKES!

  28. 2010-13 Drought: Final points • Two drought episodes within a larger drought period • A good summer, FINALLY! • Don’t tell folks in SW OK and other parts that the drought is over (without a bodyguard) • La Nina NOT showing up thus far! • No El Nino either, unfortunately. • Ocean patterns are unfavorable in the long term • We might be in for a longer period of “drought susceptibility” • This drought will eventually end!

  29. Thank You! Visit us at: http://climate.ok.gov/

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