Evaluating Economic Implications of Climate Change: Great Lakes Ports, Harbors & Marinas

1. Evaluating Economic Implications of Climate Change:Great Lakes Ports, Harbors & Marinas Funding Program: NOAA Sectoral Applications Research Program (SARP): Grant Title: Preparing Coastal Communities for Climate Change: Translating Model Results to Prepare Ports, Harbors and Stormwater Management Facilities in an Era of Climate Variability and Scientific Uncertainty Dale Bergeron Maritime Transportation Specialist MN Sea Grant Gene Clark Coastal Engineering Specialist WI Sea Grant

2. Some essential tools for 21st Century issues • Recognizing a WICKED PROBLEM! • Creating “actionable data” from qualitative information (“weighted expert evaluation” & “functional approximation”) • Data Visualization (communicating potential impacts- GIS, interactive, web based, real-timetools) • Communication Products (knowing your stakeholders value propositions) • Adaptive Management (incorporate into Networked Strategic Planning: multi-level)

3. Elements of successful Great Lakes Adaptive Management Themes • Observing, Modeling and Monitoring • Vibrant Coastal, Great Lakes, and Marine Economies • Planning for Resilient Coasts, Great Lakes, and Ecosystems • Healthy Habitats, Healthy Coastal, and Great Lakes Communities Focus Areas • Measuring Success – Beyond Performance: Understanding Economic and Social Values and Benefits • Outreach and Engagement - Connecting and Coordinating Stakeholders through Social Media, Outreach, Education, Training, Tools, and Technology • Implementation - Actions and Planning at International, National, Regional, and Local Scales •Governance and Policy - Implementation of the U.S. National Ocean Policy and International Policy Initiatives

4. Where to start? Major Objectives of our economic assessment • Case Study Results of Port Attitudes & Awareness • Relevant Climate Change Issues For Great Lakes Ports • Economic Tool Development to Evaluate Impact Ranges • Tool Application Results for Two Case Studies • Methodology for Creating Tools For Other Applications

5. Climate Change Adaptation • A climate adaptation is an adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climactic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. (Klein et al. 2001) • Seems obvious: • When its cold put on a coat…. • When its hot, sit in the shade….

6. Coastal Communities are the most Vulnerable to Climate Change What we have learned from our focus groups? • Most people are unsure of the importance of climate change (frequently an emotionally charged issue). • Often seen as “outside” the purview of local planners and businesses (actual threat, certainty, time frame?). • Only a small percentage of groups have “invested” in addressing climate change issues.

7. IDENTIFY the BIG ISSUES for “your” area of concern or impact Great Lakes maritime commerce is sensitive to: • water level fluctuation • Increased storm intensity, frequency, duration • Increased sedimentation • Ice cover and length of coverage • Impacts of combined climate outcomes There will be winners and losers…each groups will have different issues and values!

8. What must we consider? • 1) Operations (timing, strategy, markets, mission) • Infrastructure (maintenance, security, resilience, new builds) • Equipment • Personnel • Resources (partners & stakeholder value statement)

9. Our goal…Create Tools to: • Describe, analyze, and assess actions and strategies to reduce vulnerability, increase adaptive capacity, improve resiliency, and promote successful adaptation to climate change… (America’s Climate Choices, The National Academies Panel on Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change)

10. Done talking?Let’s do something useful! • What is at risk? • What is its current value? • What future opportunity exists? • What future liability exists? • Who stands to gain or loose? …Building a MATRIX…

11. What are the two most likely climate change impacts? • Dredging Volumes May Increase • Lower water levels • Increased sedimentation • Damage to Infrastructure • Higher waves and surges/seiches • Toe scour for lower water levels

12. Development of Great Lakes Region-wide Tools (Assumptions): • Water Level Variation Unknown (+/-) • Infrastructure Damage Highly Variable • Allow For Regional Variability • Allow For Infrastructure Type Variability • Apply To Two Port Case Studies

13. Region-wide Dredging & Port Data Sources Dredging Infrastructure

14. Dredging Cost Database:

15. Increased Dredging Costs – Duluth/Superior Harbor

16. Increased Dredging Costs – Duluth/Superior Harbor (3,135,494cy/ft)x($12/cy) = $37,625,930/ft of depth

17. Infrastructure Matrix Cost Database:

18. Infrastructure Matrix Cost Database: • No design, permitting or site investigation costs (+25%?) • Replacement values assume minimal top ground work • Costs do not consider ANY top structure modifications • Costs are June 2010 Estimates (USCOE cost index) • Many detailed variables not accounted for in ranges • Therefore …… Very Conservative !!

19. Infrastructure Matrix Cost Database:

20. Infrastructure Damage Costs – Duluth/Superior Harbor

21. Duluth/Superior Case Study Results • Dredging Costs for All Slips + Federal Channel (14 miles): • @ $5/ft for slips & $12/ft for Fed Channel = $39,055,333 • @ $10/ft for slips & $12/ft for Fed Channel = $40,484,737 • @ $15/ft for slips & $12/ft for Fed Channel = $41,914,140 • Channel Costs Main Factor! • Infrastructure Costs for All 58 Slips: • Repair: $177,093,700 • Replacement: $298,458,280

22. Duluth/Superior Case Study Results: How Can We Improve on These Initial Results? • Investigate Actual Conditions for Each Structure (Repair, • Replace or Do Nothing?) • Include Estimates For “Top-side” Component Modifications • Indentify Strategic Dredging Locations (Don’t Include Channels • Not Normally Dredged) • Apply Regional Sediment Management Predictions to Minimize • Channels Requiring to be Dredged

23. Great Lakes Region-wide Tools Use (Other Than Climate Change Impacts): • Assist Ports in Demonstrating Value to Community and • Great Lakes Transportation System • Demonstrate Infrastructure & Channel Issues • (Infrastructure Deterioration & Dredging Needs) • Combine With Federal Infrastructure Assessments to • Show Value of Federal Protection (Entrance BW’s) • Could Develop Similar Climate Tools for Stormwater • Storage & Conveyance Infrastructure • Once you change one aspect, the impacts affect others.

24. We tend to oversimplify… • There will be complex interrelationships between impacts and outcomes (this may be the most difficult issue to understand and express: both winners and losers). • We don’t (or can’t) consider issues outside of our areas of interest or expertise (the temporal scale for “reporting the bottom line” will determine stakeholders ability to engage and invest). • The integrity of not only physical structures, but economic, social, and environmental systems are all at risk due to climate change (a cascade of outcomes will result). • Dollar Values are only an “Esperanto” for comparison (the idea of equivalency is only a tool of convenience)

25. Some Take Home Points: • Find out how much you don’t know! Meet your stakeholders where they are…and be honest when sharing information about the degree of uncertainty. • Absent specific projections, develop awareness of current opportunity and potential liability. • Understand the potential benefits, costs, and risks associated with a range of climate impacts and outcomes. • Seek to identify “tipping points” or temporal indicators that will impact costs • Define necessary “partnerships” to implement best adaptive practices and locate necessary funding (national, state, local, private) • Recognize where you are TODAY, and that you do have choices!

26. What will the future look like?

27. Questions or Comments??