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Management in complexity The exploration of a new paradigm

Management in complexity The exploration of a new paradigm Complexity theory and the Quantum Interpretation. Walter Baets, PhD, HDR Associate Dean for Innovation and Social Responsibility Professor Complexity , Knowledge and Innovation Euromed Marseille – Ecole de Management.

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Management in complexity The exploration of a new paradigm

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  1. Management in complexityThe exploration of a new paradigm Complexity theory and the Quantum Interpretation Walter Baets, PhD, HDR Associate Dean for Innovation and Social Responsibility Professor Complexity , Knowledge and Innovation Euromed Marseille – Ecole de Management

  2. Sometimes small differences in the initial conditions generate very large differences in the final phenomena. A slight error in the former could produce a tremendous error in the latter. Prediction becomes impossible; we have accidental phenomena. Poincaré in 1903

  3. Mathematical complexity

  4. Sensitivity to initial conditions (Lorenz) Xn+1 = a * Xn * (1 - Xn) 0.294 1.4 0.3 0.7

  5. Cobweb Diagrams (Attractors/Period Doubling) Xn+1 =  * Xn * (1 - Xn) (stepfunction) dX / dt =  X (1 - X)(continuous function) • On the diagrams one gets: • Parabolic curve • Diagonal line Xn+1 = Xn • Line connecting iterations

  6. Lorenz curve (Butterfly effect) Lorenz (1964) was finally able to materialize Poincaré’s claim Lorenz weather forecasting model dX / dt = B ( Y - X ) dY / dt = - XZ + rX - Y dZ / dt = XY - bZ

  7. Fractals (Mandelbrot set) Self-similarity on different levels of detail Coastline Cody Flower Branches of a tree Those forms cannot be reduced to any geometrical figure (Mandelbrot) It is a set of attractors (gingerbread-man) for a set of different equations Julia set: Z  Z 2 + C (C is constant; Z is complex) Dependence on starting values of z Mandelbrot set is a fractal (needs a computer)

  8. Why can chaos not be avoided ? • Social systems are always dynamic and • non-linear • Measurement can never be correct • Management is always a discontinuous • approximation of a continuous • phenomenon

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