MDG Monitoring to 2015 & beyond HUNGER INDCATOR – 1.9 by Seeva RAMASAWMY

1. MDG Monitoring to 2015 & beyond HUNGER INDCATOR – 1.9 by Seeva RAMASAWMY FAO RAP, Bangkok, Thailand (seevalingum.ramasawmy@fao.org)

2. HUNGER INDICATOR • OUTLINE • Definition of the hunger indicator • Purpose • Components • Methodology of estimation • Data sources • Estimation • Conclusions

3. Target 1C - Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger MDG Hunger indicator 1.9: Reduce the proportion of population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption (MDER) by half by 2015. World Food Summit Target: Reduce the number of undernourished people by half by 2015. HUNGER INDICATOR

4. Global Monitoring hunger : MDG 1.9 & WFS Target Halve the proportion of people who suffer from hunger by 2015 Halve the number of people who suffer from hunger by 2015 Number of undernourished people Prevalence of undernourishment Population

5. PURPOSE • 1. Indicators of Food Insecurity. • 2. Assess the food insecurity at global, national and sub-national levels. • 3. Food policies aiming at more focused interventions and programmes.

7. METHODOLOGY OF ESTIMATION • To characterize the distribution we need to estimate (at least) three parameters (“moments”): Location (measured by the mean), • Indicates the average level of food consumption Dispersion (measured by the coefficient of variation) • Indicates the degree of inequality in food consumption Asymmetry (measured by the coefficient of skewness) • As opposed to monetary income, food consumption cannot increase indefinitely, therefore, as the mean level increases, we expect the asymmetry to be reduced.

8. Prevalence of Undernourishment hunger indicator – MDG 1.9 The indicator is conceptually very simple. If we know: • How much food is available in the country, (DES/DEC) – Food Availability • What are the population food requirements, (MDER) - Food Utilization • How food consumption is distributed across households (CV of DEC) - Food Access we may estimate how many people are likely to be having insufficient access to food.

9. The FAO approach for estimating Hunger Indicator • Based on three key parameters: • 1. Energy consumption per person (DES) as derived from • Food Balance Sheet (FBS) • 2. Inequality in access to food (CV of DEC) • National household income and expenditure survey (NHS) • 3. The minimum dietary energy requirement (MDER) • Based on International Dietary Energy Requirement Norms using country age/sex structure of the population and height data.

10. FAO Estimates of Hunger Indicator (Prevalence of Undernourishment or Food Deprivation) MDG Indicator 1.9 (National) (FAO SOFI) Proxy of MDG 1.9 National and Regional levels Dietary Energy Consumption (DEC) Dietary Energy Supply (DES) National household survey (NHS/HIES) Food Balance Sheet (FBS) Coefficient of Variation (CV) of the distribution of Dietary Energy Consumption (DEC) Minimum Dietary Energy Requirement (MDER)

11. 1. Estimation of the mean x (Dietary Energy Supply) per caput DES every year for all countries FAO’s /Country Food Balance Sheets source providing estimates

12. Food Available for Human Consumption (DES) from Food Balance Sheet Gross Production - Harvest Loss = Net Production + Beginning Stocks + Imports = Gross Food Availability - Exports - Feed - Seed - Post-Harvest Loss = Net Food Availability Net Food Availability - Ending Stocks - Non-food uses = Household Consumption - Intra-House Waste - Non-Human Consumption = Human Food Consumption

13. The FAO approach for estimating Hunger • 2. Sources of variation of inequality (CV )in access to food (DEC) Variation due to biological factors Other sources Seasonal variation Variation due to income Total Variation 7.2

14. The FAO approach for estimating Hunger • 2. Estimation of the inequality in access to food as given by the CV (Coefficient of Variation) of DEC variation of energy consumption Variation due to requirement approx. 20% variation according to levels of income

15. The FAO approach for estimating Hunger • 3. The minimum dietary energy requirement (MDER) • Based on International Dietary Energy Requirement Norms using country age/sex structure of the population and height data. • Recommended Energy Requirement by Age and Sex -Joint FAO/WHO/UNU Expert Consultation on human energy requirements (FAO/WHO/UNU, 2004).

16. To produce good estimates, we need reliable and timely data. The minimum set of data we need are: A measure of total food availability in the country The size and structure of the population (including heights) Data from surveys recording food consumption (i.e. budget and expenditure surveys, living standard measurement surveys, etc.) The Data Problem

17. Global Monitoring of MDG Hunger Indicator (1.9) State of Food Insecurity in the World – SOFI 2010 Technical Assistance at Country level – 95 countries Use of Food Security Statistics Module - (FSSM/ADePT) Process - Analysis – Report Macro and Micro nutrient Analysis - Protein Quality – Quality of the Diet ESTIMATION OF HUNGER INDICATOR ANALYTICAL TOOL FSSM/ADePT

18. Coordination among National institutions collecting agricultural and food data: NSO, Ministry of Agriculture, fisheries, livestock; Ministry of Trade and Commerce; Ministry of Health; Ministry of Industry; etc. CONCLUSIONS

19. Country collaboration is essential in providing the needed data FAO ESS is committed to provide technical assistance to: Data collection Data processing Analysis

20. THANK YOU