Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project in Southeast Asia

1. Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project in Southeast Asia Yuki Honda RA II Theme Leader on NWP Systems and Products Japan Meteorological Agency Munehiko Yamaguchi Meteorological Research Institute Special thanks to: Shunsuke Hoshino (MRI/JMA)Mio Matsueda (JAMSTEC)Tetsuo Nakazawa (WMO)

2. In 2009, the tyhoon Ketsana made the worst damage in Southeaset Asia. • After passing Phiippines, it hit Viet Nam, Laos, Cambodia and Tailand. • The total loss of lives are about 700 and the estimated damage reachs over about $700 million to $1.0 billion USD. Flood Windstorm Cyclones Drought

3. 14th Session of RA-II • 4.1.2 The Association noted that the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) has achieved significant results and benefits relative to the GDPFS and PWS programmes in its first regional project in Africa, and requested the Working Group on Disaster Risk Reduction and Service Delivery [ref. XIV-RA II/Doc. 5.1] to consider developing a SWFDP RA II project as a method for enhancing the GDPFS and PWS and contributing to disaster risk reduction goals in developing countries, for example, those in Southeast Asia that have recently experienced disasters.

4. Workshop on SWFDP DevelopmentFor Southeast Asia • Workshop on SWFDP Development For Southeast Asia (Ha Noi, Viet Nam, 2-5 Februrary, 2010) • Chair : Edwin S. T. Lai (HKO) • Coordinator of Working Group on Disaster Risk Reduction and Service Delivery in RA-II • CBS endorsement • 3rd meeting of Steering Group of SWFDP (Feb.2010, Geneva) • recognized this arising sub-project and gave the highest priority to this sub-project with other 2 sub-projects. • CBS Extraordinary Session (2010) (Namibia; Nov. 2010)

5. Target Severe Weather Events The following events are focused in order of decreasing priority and associated hazards such as flooding, landslides, high waves and swell: • tropical cyclone (both from the South China Sea and from the Bay of Bengal) track, intensity, structure changes and landfall process (wind and gust, rainfall and storm surge); • heavy rain triggered by tropical cyclones, SW and NE monsoon, troughs and ITCZ migration, and orography; • thunderstorms and hail associated with severe convection; • cold conditions and frost; • extreme hot and dry conditions associated with föhn effect.

6. Participants and Domain Global Centres • CMA • JMA • KMA Regional Centres • Hanoi (regional forecast support) • Hong Kong (training and technical support) • RSMCs Tokyo and New Delhi (Typhoon /Tropical Cyclone forecasting support) NMCs • Cambodia • Lao PDR • Thailand • Viet Nam

7. NWP/EPS Products • Deterministic Products • Weather Charts on Specified Pressure Levels • Wind, Temperature, Geopotential Height, Humidity, Precipitation, CAPE…etc. • EPS Products • Stamp Maps • Probability Maps of Precipitation, Wind Speed and Significant Wave Height (one or a few thretholds) • EPSgrams • Typhoon/TC Strike Propability Maps …etc. (EFI)

8. Product • Deterministic Forecastfrom GlobalModel • Probabilistic Forecast from Global medium-range EPS

9. How to see KMA NWP outputs

10. Synergy with Other Regional Activities There are some on-going and planned projects related to NWP system and products. • RA II Pilot Project on City-specific NWP forecasts • JMA Pilot Project on EPS Products (EPS-WEB)

11. RA II Pilot Project on City-specific NWP forecasts • 13th Session of RA II - to enable developing countries of RA II access NWP products; • By the beginning of 2009, 18 countries had joined the Project; and, • Hong Kong, China; Japan and the Republic of Korea provided forecast time series products for over 160 cities to 13 countries.

12. JMA EPS-WEB • The products in JMA EPS-WEB are recommended • by Manual on the GDPFS (WMO No.485). • In addition to the web-site for public users, JMA provides a web-site for meteorologists and forecasters in foreign countries. • The special forecast products derived from EPS are disseminated on the website, “JMA EPS-WEB”, supporting the activity of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in Asia. • The data in this website is available for operational weather forecasting in your countries.

13. Synergy with TIGGE/GIFS in RA II • CMA • Archive Centre of the THORPEX/TIGGE project • Store EPS products from 10 NWP centres every day. • MRI • North Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone (TC) Ensemble Forecast (NWP-TCTEF) Project

14. NWP-TCTEF Project • A WWRP-RDP project “North Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone (TC) Ensemble Forecast (NWP-TCTEF) Project” intends to build on the TIGGE concept and take advantage of the TIGGE CXML data provided by multiple organizations for improving TC track forecast skill over the North western Pacific, starting from 2009, as a five-year project. • The objectives of the NWP-TCTEF Project are: • to explore and develop effective ways of obtaining and utilizing the track forecast data from TIGGE data providers to improve medium range forecast of TC track forecast • to develop software for a real time multi-model tropical cyclone forecasting system from data transfer to verification • to evaluate the utility of multi-model forecasts of tropical cyclones track predictions and provide recommendations on future multi-model ensemble systems and on future GIFS-RDPs

15. Tropical Cyclone Products - MCGE - Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Information Homepage (http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/cyclone/login.php) by Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) of JMA Send email to thorpex@mri-jma.go.jp to get ID and password MultiCentre Grand Ensemble by TIGGE Each Track Strike Probability

16. Tropical Cyclone Products – Each Center EPS - Participants Track predictions by each EPS are also available CMA MSC ECMWF JMA-WEPS JMA-TEPS KMA NCEP STI UKMO

17. Strike probability at specific time is plotted with bars Distance to TC center is plotted with box plots Strike Probability time-series at a city - 1- Time

18. Select city Strike Probability time-series at a city - 2- The users can select a city to see the strike probability time-series maps by multi-model EPS and each center’s EPS Time series of strike probability and the distance to TC center

19. Genesis Potential using TIGGE Case study for Vietnam Flood in Oct. 2008 192hr 216hr Color Shading: Percentage of Members, which exceed 90 Percentile of Us

20. EPSgram CMC ECMWF JMA NCEP UKMO Climatology based on Reanalysis data

21. NCEP JMA Testify GIFS Products for Operational Use EMCWF MSC Meteorological Research Institute STI UKMO KMA • Feedback • Evaluation of usefulness in forecasting operation CMA Regional Centre Hanoi Multi-Centres Grand Ensemble GIFS Products Daily Severe Weather Forecasting Guidance National Met. Centres Cambodia Thailand Lao P.D.R. Vietnam

22. A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EVALUATION FORM - everytime after events- May Add One More Cell To Evaluation GIFS Products

23. Quarterly Evaluations A summarized evaluation report every quarter

24. GIFS ↔ SWFDP • GIFS producers will give additional research products from multi-center grand ensemble, which are proved valuable by scientific evaluation. • SWFDP subprojects will return the feedback to GIFS producers with subjective evaluation of GIFS products for operational use.

25. Issues in Forecasting Operation • Products Available Time • Products regarding Severe Weathermay lose their quality quickly as the forecast time goes. • Coordination with Other Similar Products • NWP/EPS Products of Regional Centre Hanoi • NWP/EPS Products of Global Models from Each NWP Center • And …

26. Typhoon Forecasts from Various SourcesTyphoon Ketsana (18/21 UTC 28 Sep 2009) From Beijing ** WTPQ20 BABJ 282100 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KETSANA 0916 (0916) INITIAL TIME 282100 UTC 00HR 15.9N 109.8E 960HPA 38M/S 30KTS 550KM 50KTS 110KM P12HR W 15KM/H P+24HR 15.8N 106.6E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 15.8N 103.3E 1000HPA 15M/S= China Meteorological Administration RSMC Tokyo Hong Kong Observatory Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (US Navy)