Building Adaptive Capacity for Sustainable Food Production in China

1. Building Adaptive Capacity for Sustainable Food Production in China Ju Hui Lin Erda Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science Beijing, China , juhui@cjac.org.cn

2. Contents • Climate change and its impacts in China • Policies for food production in China • Food production and climate change • Build adaptive capacity for food production • Case study in Chongqing China

3. Climate change in China- observed • IPCC third assessment report identify an average increase in global temperature of 0.4~0.8 ℃ in past century • Over the same period in China preliminary results show this temperature increase to be between 0.5~0.8 ℃, the impacts of climate change in China were different and severe.

4. A2 B2 75E 80E 85E 90E 95E 100E 105E 110E 115E 120E 125E 130E 135E 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 Simulated annual increase (C) in mean temperature (Tmean) for 2071–2079 under SRES A2 and B2 scenarios from PRECIS relative to baseline (1961–1990) Climate change in China- future

5. Average climate change scenarios under SRES A2 and B2 scenarios over China from PRECIS relative to baseline simulation (1961–1990)

6. Climate change has been found and will be not avoidable in China, What impacts have taken and will take to agricultural production by climate change?

7. Adverse Impacts in China Cold damages after mild spring that lead to damage on earlier buds and flowers

8. Benefit: changes of northern boundary of areas for crops in the Northeast China under present and future warming climate Current rice extension Winter wheat northward

9. Regional Crop Model Crop variety polygon file Input files Soil polygon file Socioeconomic polygon file PRECIS Model Shell (Reading polygon input files, writing output files, Running model repeatedly based on the Polygon definition.) CERES Output files Biomass output Growth output Water output

10. Projected yield changes for wheat, 2080 (with CO2 fertilisation effect) A2 rainfed A2 irrigated

11. Climate change can take impacts on agriculture, which involves adverse and benefit! Can we do some to get benefit more and adverse less?

12. Policies for food production in China Target of 95% self-sufficiency is a central tenet of China policies for grain food production • Household responsibility system • Grain and cotton protected price • Long-term farm land rent contracts • Return low quality grain land to green

13. Conflicts -Food production and environment • Water and soil erosion • grassland degradation • Salinity land • Water pollution • Crop residues • ………………..

14. ♠Peak of 1.6 billion population around the year of 2030;♠ Heavy pressure for more animal food and dairy needed;♠ China joins WTO and will suffer by international products;♠ etc …….. Challenges of food production in China eg. Climate changing

15. Climate change will take extra challenges to food production in China, as well as agricultural development will also feed back to climate!Build capacity to balance agricultural SD and climate change!

16. Build adaptive capacity for food production • Public awareness • Technology improvement

17. Build adaptive capacity for food production • Policy support • International cooperation

18. Regions with different Vulnerabilities Agriculture Coast Zone Runoff Changes

19. Energy consumption per capita & GDP Population growth Integratedfood production strategieswith climate change!!Case-study in Chongqing China Xiaohua Zhang

20. Chongqing– theyoungest municipal city in China

21. Objectives of the Chongqing study • Develop strategies and policies that meet development priorities of Chongqing and address climate change • Enhance local people ability to develop effective adaptation strategies that will help to minimize the negative consequences and maximize the positive effects of changing climatic conditions on agriculture. • Draw lessons for applying such a strategy in other parts of China.

22. Relative information-chongqing • Chongqing is an agricultural production base of China. • People living in the countryside is about 24 millions which takes account about of 75% Chongqing total population. • The rural area accounts for more than 95% of Chongqing total territory.

23. climate characteristic-chongqing • Warm winter with less sunshine and frost • Earlier spring with cold wave and hails • Hot summer with abundant sunshine and flood or drought • Cool autumn with less sunshine and cloudy rain • Drought, flood, higher temperature

24. Agricultural development strategies • ten agricultural industrialization activities • One million MU high quality Chinese herbs industrialization project; • One million MU natural spicery industrialization project; • One million MU bamboo sprouts industrialization project; • One million MU Rapeseed industrialization project; • One million MU ornamental plants industrialization project; • One million ton citrus deep process industrialization project; • One million ton high quality grain deeper process industrialization project; • One million Dan high quality Silk worm (cocoon) industrialization project; • One million of grass-feeding livestock industrialization project (including diary, cattle, goat, rabbit, number) • One million exported high quality pig industrialization project

25. Agricultural development priority • High quality rice planting • Deep process industrialization • Animal raising

26. Work focus on • What scientific, technological and societal responses are required to deal with the impacts of climate change on regional agriculture? • What climate-friendly and climate-safe technologies could be implemented in this region? • What role do the food industry and markets have in the development of a climate friendly and climate-safe agricultural sector. • How can recycling of waste and closing the nitrogen and carbon cycle between various sectors contribute to the sustainable development of the region?

27. We don’t inherit the world from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children! Thank you!