Migration and adaptive capacity building

1. Migration and adaptive capacity building Dr. Robert McLeman Associate Professor Department of Geography

2. Mitigation: Actions taken to reduce GHG emissions Kyoto Protocol provides key mechanism until 2012 Adaptation: Reducing vulnerability to impacts of anthropogenic climate change Also helping economies adapt to implementation of UNFCCC/protocols A number of initiatives, accords have emerged UNFCCC-speak

3. Adaptation and least developed countries (LDCs) • UNFCCC signatories have established: • LDC Fund for adaptation (administered by the Global Environment Facility (GEF)) • LDC Fund = approx $180M

4. UN LDCs

5. Adaptation and LDCs • To access the LDC Fund, countries create NAPA (National Adaptation Programmes of Action) • NAPA are to focus on urgent, immediate needs • Action-oriented • Interest in having grassroots participation • There is an Expert group to assist LDCs in preparing NAPA

6. LDCs and NAPA • At present >40 NAPA at various stages of process • Typical size of LDC grant = $1.5 - 4M NAPA tend to focus on 1 of 3 areas: • Agriculture/food security • Water quantity/quality • Coastal risks

7. Migration and NAPA • Migration tends not to be explicit target of NAPA • Preparing for distress migration is an important component of Maldives ‘safe island’ NAPA • To what extent might migration affect success of other NAPA? Or be an outcome of NAPA?

8. Migration as adaptation • Migration is one of a range of potential adaptive responses to climatic stress • Is used in many parts of world (esp. LDCs) • Is typically initiated at the household level • Is not available to everyone • Is not always used by all who might do so • In worst cases, may be the only adaptation McLeman, R. A., & Smit, B. (2006). Migration as an Adaptation to Climate Change. Climatic Change, 76(1-2), 31-53.

9. More likely to migrate: Young, healthy, skilled, educated Middle class, working class, rural poor Family ties elsewhere Less likely to migrate: Wealthier classes, landowners, owners of fixed assets Urban poor Elderly, infirm, broken families Environmental migrants

10. Adaptation to climatic stress via migration • Not a simple stimulus/response outcome • Adaptive migration behaviour/patterns are influenced by social, economic, & cultural processes • Actions taken to reduce vulnerability may have feedback effects on migration behaviour • Migration has feedback effect on adaptive capacity of source & destination areas

11. Illustrative case study • Country X is a West African LDC with large dryland areas • Agriculture = largest sector of economy, workforce • Current climatic risks: drought, soil erosion, desertification, flooding by extreme rain events; exacerbated in some regions by deforestation • Climate change likely to exacerbate risks

12. Country X demographics • Median age = 17 • Population growth rate = 3.3% • 80% live in rural areas • High rates of ongoing migration from dry to humid regions • High rates of migration to 2nd-tier cities • Periodic distress migration events (esp. drought)

13. Rural-urban migration • For decades, country X has sought to moderate rural-urban migration by improving services/ amenities in rural areas • Empirical results suggest improved rural infrastructure (roads, schools, clinics, electricity, piped water) increases rural-to-urban migration • Strong social infrastructure (e.g. presence of markets, entertainment) is associated with lower rates of rural out-migration

14. Country X NAPA • Priority is to increase food security • Actions envisage building food reserves; developing new plans for land and crisis management; increasing agricultural productivity; increasing irrigation; creating pastoral reserves

15. Country X NAPA & migration • If successful NAPA could reduce food emergencies, make government better prepared for them • Emphasis on management, infrastructure & productivity does not address underlying demographic & migration challenges • NAPA thin on addressing vulnerability of fast-growing urban population & changing face of food security

16. Implications • Short-term adaptation needs vary among LDCs • NAPA are intended to be urgent responses to obvious points of vulnerability. In crafting them ask: • To what extent will NAPA activities affect adaptive migration? • Where demographics/migration are underlying contributors to vulnerability, to what extent will NAPA address them?

17. Thanks! Merci! Robert McLeman Associate Professor Department of Geography University of Ottawa e-mail: rmcleman@uottawa.ca web: http://www.geography.uottawa.ca/prof/rmcleman.htm blog: http://www.thisgeographicallife.blogspot.com

18. Available publications McLeman, R., & Hunter, L. M. (In Press). Migration in the Context of Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change: Insights from Analogues. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. McLeman, R. (2010). Impacts of population change on vulnerability and the capacity to adapt to climate change and variability: a typology based on lessons from a hard country. Population and Environment. (Springer OnlineFirst) McLeman, R. (2008). Climate change migration, refugee protection and adaptive capacity-building. McGill International Journal of Sustainable Development Law and Policy, 4(1), 1-18. McLeman, R., & Smit, B. (2006). Migration as an Adaptation to Climate Change. Climatic Change, 76(1-2), 31-53. McLeman, R., & Smit, B. (2006). Changement climatique, migrations et sécurité. Les Cahiers de la sécurité, 63(4), 95-120.