Patterns of Reason

1. Patterns of Reason The Magnificent Seven

2. Seven Patterns of Reason • Sign • Analogy • Generalization • Definition • Cause • Dilemma • Authority

3. SIGN * Reasoning by sign consists of observing correlations among events. *Clouds of a particular type might indicate a certain kind of storm. “Red sky in morning, sailor, take warning. Red sky at night, sailor’s delight.” * As a backpacker, I observe piles of stones along the way where trails are obscured by leaves. Other’s have left stones to indicate “this way.”

4. SIGN * There’s some bear leavings at this camp, I think we’d better camp elsewhere. * You have a fever, aches, and sniffles, symptoms suggesting that you’ve caught the flu. * The whiskey bottle level is below the label, a clue that you’ve been drinking.

5. Economics Businesses are always looking for indications of strong or weak economy: Unemployment Housing Starts The Deficit Interest rates Etc.

6. Romance • I haven’t heard from them in awhile. They seem to have moved on. • That’s the third time he’s looked at me. I think he’s interested. • Uh-oh. She’s got that “you forgot something really important” look. What is today anyway?

7. ANALOGY • While sign says that A goes along with B, analogy says A is the same as B. What is so of A may also be expected of B. • There are two types of analogy. Metaphoric Comparisons Literal Comparisons (Parallel Reason)

8. Metaphor These are comparisons to describe in a pithy manner or to amuse, not be literal: • Killing for peace is like having sex for chastity. • A woman without a man is like a fish without a bicycle. • He puts out arguments like a corn husker. • He has eyes like steel.

9. Parallel Reasoning These are literal comparisons used to make real world predictions: • This house was built in 1950 like that one we had on Chance St. Remember, we had all the asbestos problems? We’d better check that. • Iraq is similar to the Balkan War, so we can expect a similarly protracted conflict.

10. Compare and Contrast We often know parallel reason by the practice of “compare and contrast.” This one feels smooth, but this one feels rough. The first is silk, the second is wool. You learned it in grade school, along with the fun game of “which of these does not belong,” a skillet, a teapot, a baking dish, or a dog?

11. The Eclectus Parrot Biologists used “compare and contrast” to discover A new dimorphic (two formed) species of parrot. The male Eclectus is green with an orange beak, while the female is scarlet with a black beak. We thought they were two different species and caged them separately. But they behaved so similarly, we realized they were male and female of the same species, something the birds knew all along!

12. Generalization * We observe the characteristics of a group of things and catalogue them according to these characteristics into groups. * This is like this, is like this, is like this, is like all of these things belonging to a similar class of beings, objects, persons, or phenomenon.

13. Og the Caveman Og comes out of his cave one day and waves at his friend Ooga. Ooga suddenly howls, jumps up and down on one feet, then dies. Og goes over and sees a crawly thing with fangs and kills it with a rock. Ever after that, when he sees a crawly thing, he kills it.

14. Hasty Generalization • Og, of course, is wrong. He hasn’t seen enough snakes to know that they differ and aren’t all poisonous. • A scientist, by contrast, would collect many examples and would understand that there are many kinds of non-poisonous snakes, some of which are handy in controlling rodents or even other snakes. A scientist would know that there are two distinct kinds of poisonous snakes: vipers like rattlesnakes and krates like cobras.

15. Generalization • Generalization is parallel reason multiplied to the point that we know the common characteristics of a whole class of objects. • We often use statistics to establish how broad a generalization may be. • More than 50% of the population has tried marijuana. • The president’s approval rating is a mere 34%.

16. Generalization • It’s also called reasoning from example. A list of examples is the beginning of generalization. • I’ve owned a lot of German shepherds and found them loyal, but prone to hip problems as they age. • I’ve usually dated women my own age, and I’ve found that I have more to talk to with them. • I have had many Mormon students, and I find that they are among my most timely and responsible.

17. Reason from Definition * Generalization is an inductive process that involves the counting of many examples in order to establish common principles or characteristics regarding a given group. • Definition is the deductive counterpart. It reverses the process and applies principles to individual cases to see if they are part of a group.

18. Sherlock Holmes * Sherlock Holmes, the great detective, was the master of reason by definition. He would observe individual items and identify them with a larger class of objects principles: * “This is a tobacco made only in India, and not available here. Our culprit has recently arrived from India. Check the ship manifests!” * Of course, you need a lot of knowledge to know things “by definition” or say “it’s categorically so.”

19. Sweeping Generalization • As we learned with “qualifiers,” things are true to varying degrees of certainty. • A thing is true of whales when they migrate. • When we over apply a generalization, as if something often true were always true, we’ve committed a “sweeping G.” • You’re black. You must be a good dancer.

20. SO FAR * Sign: observing things that indicate other things, like smoke indicates fire. * Analogy: comparing two or more things, both to describe and to predict. * When we compare more than a few things at statistical levels, we can Generalize. * Then we can recognize things “by Definition.” “It a bluebird. We studied them in class.”

21. Three More to Go • Cause and Effect: A leads to B. • From Dilemma: We have only two choices, A or B. Which is the better? • From Authority: Based on our own knowledge or that of an authority.

22. Cause & EffectA= B * We see an event, either a good or a bad one, and we try to discover the causes. If we understand the source, we can anticipate, enhance, or blunt the effects. * Without this kind of reasoning, we’d be unable to protect ourselves or make policy.

23. Chronic Fatigue Syndrome • The Centers for Disease Control studied causes for this mysterious ailment. They found that “many cases of chronic fatigue have links to a handful of brain and immune system-related genes that harbor small mutations or are working abnormally for other reasons. • So one may be born with it rather than getting from the environment

24. Chronic Fatigue Syndrome The CDC also discovered an improvement in classification of the disease (generalizations about it): “that the mysterious ailment is actually a collection of five or more conditions linked to varying genetic and environmental causes, scientists reported yesterday (4/31/06).”

25. Causal Link • Notice that the word link was highlighted n both quotations for a reason. • To establish cause you must locate the specific factor of causation, the causal link. • Eating too many calories without proper exercise is the direct cause of weight gain. • Lack of oil caused your engine to fail.

26. Causal Link • Without finding a causal link, we may be assuming that a correlation is a cause. • Just because something is a reliable sign for somthing doesn’t mean it’s the cause. • The rooster crows every morning as a sign of the dawn, but it doesn’t make the sun come up.

27. Multiple Causation • Most complex social problems involve more than one cause. • Juvenile delinquency, for instance, is caused by drugs, parental neglect, influence from peers, and many other things to one degree or another. • Poor health may be a combination of behavioral factors like smoking, as well as personal attitudes. • Many members of a team cause a win.

28. Reason from Dilemma * This is the process of choosing between two mutually exclusive objects: take A or B. * You can’t have both and there is no third choice. * I’m sorry, but I can’t share you with Harry. You’ll have to choose between us. * The old blues song: “Two bad roads and you still got to choose.”

29. Cost vs. Gains Analysis *The process of choosing, weighing one thing against another, is sometimes called Costs vs. Gains Analysis. *You make a list of the good things, the gains, and consider their weight against the bad things, the cost. *Sure, you’d like those Angel tickets, but you’d have to put it on a credit card, and you’re near it’s limit.

30. College • As you consider transfer, you’re probably using Costs vs. Gains Analysis. • College A is a little beyond my budget, it’s away from home, and the subject I like is really good there. • College B is closer, which will save money. The department is good, but I’d have to live with my folks.

31. Appeal to Authority • The appeal to authority is based on the credibility of the authority being trusted. • The more relevant expertise of an authority, the more compelling the argument. • Authorities can be wrong, so the % of correct observations increases source credibility.

32. Conditions of Valid Authority • The authority must have competence in an area, not just glamour, prestige, rank or popularity (sports figures or movie stars). • The judgment must be within the authority's field of competence. Linus Pauling won a Nobel Prize for chemistry, then later made claims that massive quantities of vitamin C would prevent cancer in humans. This claim was in the field of medicine and thus outside his field of competence.

33. Conditions of Valid Authority • The expert should be reasonably unbiased (not unduly influenced by other factors, such as money, political considerations, or religious beliefs). • The judgment must be representative of expert opinions on the issue (as opposed to an unrepresentative sample). Lawyers sometimes find a non-representative "expert" to offer a theory which is not generally accepted (such as a so-called Twinkie defense) in hopes of winning their case.

34. Appeal to Authority Fallacy • When you don’t meet the previous conditions, you may be committing an appeal to authority fallacy: • Referring to the philosophical beliefs of Aristotle. "If Aristotle said it was so, it is so.” • Quotes from religious books such as the Bible. "The Bible says X, therefore X is the right thing.” • Believing what one is told by one's teacher. "My teacher said so, therefore it must be right."

35. In Sum • Sign A correlates with B WHEN A COMES, IT MAY INDICATE B • Analogy A = B IF A IS LIKE B, WE CAN EXPECT SIMILAR THINGS FROM EACH. • Generalization A1, A2, A3, etc. = Class A WHICH HAS THESE CHARACTERISTICS

36. In Sum • From Definition It has the characteristics of class A, therefore, it must be an A. • Cause A leads to B • From Dilemma It has to be A or B • Authority It’s so because a qualified source, speaking in his own area of expertise, says it’s so.