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Permafrost and changing climate: impacts on infrastructure

Permafrost and changing climate: impacts on infrastructure. Oleg Anisimov, Svetlana Reneva, Vasiliy Kokorev, Julia Strelchenko State Hydrological Institute St.Petersburg, Russia. Permafrost occupies more than 60% of Russia. Aerobic. Active layer. Water. CH 4. Permafrost.

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Permafrost and changing climate: impacts on infrastructure

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  1. Permafrost and changing climate: impacts on infrastructure Oleg Anisimov, Svetlana Reneva, Vasiliy Kokorev, Julia Strelchenko State Hydrological Institute St.Petersburg, Russia

  2. Permafrost occupies more than 60% of Russia

  3. Aerobic Active layer Water CH4 Permafrost Key concerns associated with thawing permafrost • Threats to ecosystems, loss of wildlife habitat, geopolitical issues • Vicinity of Yakytsk,2008. Photo: T.Maksimov • Permafrost and economy of the North: impacts on the infrastructure • Baikal-Amur main track. Photo: D.Drozdov • Permafrost and global climate: potential feedback through methane emission

  4. Yedoma. Lower Kolyma river. Photo: Vladimir Romanovskiy Consecutive stages of ground subsidence leading to forest damage. Eroding coastline of East-Siberian sea. Photo: Mikhail Grigoriev, 2008 Vicinity of Yakytsk. Photo: Trofim Maksimov, 2008 Uneven soil subsidence and erosion due to thawing permafrost severely affect northern landscapes and destroy forests (lower photo), and expose organic-rich Yedoma sediments (upper photo). Calving permafrost blocks and erosion along the coasts of Russian Arctic seas lead up to 30 km2 /y land loss

  5. Impacts of thawing permafrost on constructions ACIA, 2005 Yakutsk, July 2006. Building in Vorkuta, photo: D.Streletskiy

  6. Photo: Mikhail Grigoriev, 2009 Photo: Sergei Marchenko, September 2009 Weather Station “Tien Shan”, damaged due to ice melt. Tien Shan, Central Asia, 3614 m ASL Facilities of Bykov Mys village, Laptev sea coast, affected by coast retreat and thawing permafrost. Photo: Mikhail Grigoriev, 2008 Photo: Dmitriy Drozdov, 2008 Baikal-Amur main track. Administrative building in Yakutsk, 2008.

  7. Documented destructive impacts of thawing permafrost V. Grebenetz and Ye. Dmitriev, 2008

  8. Air temperature, 0C Аa Аveg Аsn Аorg Тa ATMOSPHERE 0 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 -16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 hveg Тveg Air temperature amplitude, 0C vegetation hsn Тsn zorg Snow Тorg 18 20 22 24 26 28 Organic layer ТAL ALD Active layer Active-layer thickness, m Тp Permafrost Conventional permafrost modeling Input: gridded climate data Permafrost model

  9. 0 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.5 2.0+ Conventional permafrost modeling Conventional permafrost models predict permafrost parameters, i.e. ALT, soil temperature, under current and projected climate. ALT, baseline (1990-2000) ALT, 2050 projection based on 21 GCM ensemble under A2 emission scenario ALT, m

  10. Permafrost hazard index, Ig Ig= k • (1+S)• (z2 – z1) • Cw/ z1 Zi– maximum summer thaw depth under the modern (index 1) and projected for the future (index 2) climate, Cw - volumetric ground ice content, S - soil salinity, K - constant scaling factor. Anisimov, Reneva 2006 Nelson, Anisimov, Shiklomanov, 2001, 2002

  11. CGCM2 HadCM3 ECHAM4 CSM-1.4 GFDL-R30 Permafrost hazard index, 2050 projections low moderate high Anisimov et al., 2009

  12. Uncertainties and probabilities…

  13. R24, Bolvansky 30 см R2, Ayach-Yakha 50 R23, Talnik R4, Parisento 70 , R3 R1, Nadym 30 50 70 90 130 150 90 110 130 Talik Small-scale random variations over space Organic layer thickness Active layer thickness

  14. Probabilistic ALT mapping 30 50 70 90 130 150 Probability scale 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 ALT range <0.5 m 0.5 - 0.8 m 0.8 - 1.4 m 1.4 - 2.0 m

  15. Implications for cold region engineering

  16. -5.0 -4.5 -4.0 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 Design strength 2050, org=20 cm 2050, bare ground 2000, bare ground 2000, org=20cm Design safety factor (99%) -5.0 -4.5 -4.0 -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0 Ground temperature, 0C Implications in engineering

  17. Acknowledgement Support for this UK-Russia research comes from the Foreign Commonwealth strategic programme fund

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