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MF Industry : Emerging Trends , Outlook & IFA Business 27 th Aug 2014. USD 29 Trillion. Global Overview : Mutual Funds. Size of Mutual Funds Globally !!. Global Scale & Depth of MFs is Inspiring !!
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MF Industry : Emerging Trends , Outlook & IFA Business 27thAug 2014
USD 29 Trillion Global Overview : Mutual Funds Size of Mutual Funds Globally !! • Global Scale & Depth of MFs is Inspiring !! • India on the right track but long way to go ...currently only 0.5% on Global MF Industry , Equity Share < 30% Growth of global MFs in last 20 Years 7 Times Contribution of Equities to global MF Assets 50% Data Source -ICI Global Research Perspective Mar'14 Vol.1 No.1 . Data as on 2013
Global Overview : Mutual Funds MF assets as % of GDP : A big indicator ! • In Evolved markets , MF Assets have exceeded ~ 50% of countries GDP . • India still at ~5% has huge growth potential Data Source -ICI Global Research Perspective Mar'14 Vol.1 No.1 . Data as on 2013
Indian MF Industry- Long-term trend Expanding Horizons-Deepening Roots Year-2014 Year - 2004 3X - 10% CAGR 10X - 20% CAGR 30X - 42% CAGR 50X - 49% CAGR 5X - 17% CAGR Most of growth happened during 2004-2008 .. Last 5 years have been stagnant Source- SEBI/AMFI (AUM-EOP-Jul’14)
Growth Phase of MF Industry Total AUM Investor Growth (in Crs) Fixed Income Total AUM Fixed Income Equity AUM Equity AUM Total AUM Fixed Income Source- SEBI/AMFI
Indian MF Industry- Long-term trend Overall AUM Growth & Potential • After a decade of diverse phases , Industry on the fast-track • 20 Lac Crs by 2020 : 2X (15% CAGR) much realistic expectation Projections 10X - 25% CAGR Growth Source- SEBI/AMFI
Indian MF Industry- Long-term trend Flows in to Equity MFs : a Rejoinder ! • Equity flows back on track .. Will be the biggest growth driver • Recent flows similar to that of 2007-08 bull-run peak • Considering this is just the beginning of a mammoth , long-term bull-run , 2 Lac Gross Sales annually seems realistic by 2020 Projections Source- SEBI/AMFI
Indian MF Industry- Long-term trend Retail Burst & Growth in Investors • Retail participation is picking up fast after a lull of almost 5 Years (Ref Investor Category Trends) , Total Investors expected to touch 10 Crs by 2020 • After 5X growth in last 10 years , 3X growth in next 5 years very realistic expectation Projections Source- SEBI/AMFI
Indian MF Industry- Long-term trend Projections Exponential Growth in SIPs & related Equity Inflows • SIPs will remain the main tool for new customer acquisition -Goal-planning approach will help deepen existing book • ATS moved from ~1000 to ~2500 in 10 years. Expected to touch ~5000 by 2020 . SIP-Equity Inflows expected to touch Rs.7500 Crs a month • New SIPs Already touched 3 Lacs P.M (Peak was 4 Lacs P.M) Projections Source- SEBI/AMFI
Indian MF Industry-Short Term trend Early trends encouraging ! Industry poised for Quantum leap ! Gross & Net Sales Trend : Mar’13 to Jul’14 • Equity moving fast from Net –ve last FY to Net +ve in Apr-Jun Qtr • Equity Avg. Gross Monthly Sales have more than tripled from ~3500 Crs for last FY to close to ~12,000 for Apr-Jul’14 Period • Last entire year sales covered in just 4 months this FY… Net Sales YTD is 13573 Vs -13158 for last FY Trend Reversal !! Source- SEBI/AMFI/CAMs MFDex
Indian MF Industry-Short Term trend Source- SEBI/AMFI
IFA Channel business-share Trend • IFA Share has marginally gone up over last 2 years from 37% to 40% Source- SEBI/AMFI/CAMs MFDex
IFA Business : Gross/Net Purchase Share • IFAs contribute 30% of Industry gross sales on Equity side and 15% on the Debt side • Concern - IFA Purchase Share (Gross/Net) very low compared to AUM Share Source- SEBI/AMFI/CAMs MFDex
IFA Channel business-share Trend Source- SEBI/AMFI/CAMs MFDex
IFA Business Model Industry is growing ! Are you ??? • ARN series upto 30,000 & ARN series 80,000+ dominate the space • Re-iterates the fact that old IFAs who evolved with time & new generation IFAs keep growing business Source- SEBI/AMFI/CAMs MFDex
IFA Business Model Need for building dynamism..
IFA Business Model Needs to get a facelift • Transformation required from current model & approach • Possible with continues skill & efficiency enhancement
IFA Business Model Be the “Banker” to your customer !!!! • Be the “House-hold banker” to your customers and provide 360 Degree Solution
IFA Business Model Tapping salaried work-forces @ work-sites Indian Railways 14 Lac Employees Indian Armed Forces 13 Lac Employees Tata Group 4.25 Lac Employees • Large number of salaried employees in India remain under-advised for their personal financial needs • Need to have structured approach to tap these potential customers • Salary-deduction-based products can fuel the growth in this segment SBI 2.22 Lac Employees Infosys 1.6 Lac Employees Wipro 1.46 Lac Employees Reliance Group 1.2 Lac Employees PNB 63,292 Employees
Need for technology adoption • Apr-Jul’14 saw New Customer addition improved in critical segments ,Retail (Affluent) & HNI Category fastest growing segments adding ~5 Lacs New Investors • Retail investor-base depleted over last 5 Yrs due to lack of service & advise !! • Need to adopt technology for service and continuous engagement with customers Source- SEBI/AMFI/CAMs MFDex
“Digital” driving financial services transactions • IAMAI estimates >200 mn internet users in India which is 10 times more that population of Australia!! • India to cross Internet user population of USA and will be the 2nd biggest Internet User country after China MF target investor segment will have 20 mn. Digitally enabled investors by 2016 % of urban population digitally equipped Annual household income (INR) Mutual Funds, online penetration is only 4% Online transactions are increasing with CAGR of 35%
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Synopsis Industry will grow….its time to multiply your efforts ! • Overall external environment most conducive for exponential growth • Investor will remain at the core of the business model • Expand Business Domain :- • Deepening Relationship value from existing customers • Enhance business breadth by New customer acquisition/ worksite models • Continual Self-Enhancement is a must • Skill-set & Knowledge development • Adopting best-in-class practices • Use of innovative mediums & approach • For Investor Awareness • For Sales /Online Conversion • For ongoing communication & Servicing
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Indian MF Industry-Short Term trend • Significant increase in New SIP numbers since Feb’14 onwards .Growing SIP numbers indicate confidence of retail-investors coming back to equities • Current SIP Penetration to total MF Retail investor-base (3.5 Crs) is 15% . Just by increasing it to 50% will take us to 1.5 Cr live SIPs. That culminates to SIP inflows of ~7500 Crs Per Month / Rs.60,000 Crs Per Annum !!!
IFA Business Model Acquisition Through SIP : Family Harvesting 1SIP Investor : 3 years • Long Term Revenue for 3 years • Sustained and incremental growth • Reduces the risk of investor dropout 1 Family = 4 SIPs Family Harvesting
July 2014 Back IFA Business Potential 2X Activation 5X Inflows 4X New SIPs 5X Inflows July 2015 • Just by doubling the number of active IFAs can enhance business exponentially
Investor Category Trends- AUM Mar’14 Mar’13 • Apr-Jun’14 Qtr shows steady growth across Investor categories • Retail (Affluent) & HNI Category are the fastest growing categories which is a very encouraging , especially after a stagnant last FY . HNI Category will be the next growth driver • Corporates still dominate the MF Industry with almost 50% Share
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