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Serhat SENSOY Vice-President WMO CCl Engineer in Climatology Division

Ministry of Forestry and Water Works Turkish State Meteorological Service. Early warning of weather and climatic extremes in Turkey and CAP needs for Commission for Climatology. Serhat SENSOY Vice-President WMO CCl Engineer in Climatology Division. Establishment.

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Serhat SENSOY Vice-President WMO CCl Engineer in Climatology Division

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  1. Ministry of Forestry and Water Works Turkish State Meteorological Service Early warning of weather and climatic extremes in Turkey and CAP needs for Commission for Climatology Serhat SENSOY Vice-President WMO CCl Engineer in Climatology Division

  2. Establishment Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS) was founded in 1937. It is the only legal organization which provides all meteorological information in Turkey.

  3. 1839 The first meteorological observations started in Istanbul 1873 Participated in the International Meteorological Congress 1875 First Observation Network established with 16 stations 1915 Upper air observations and weather forecasts started 1925 Establishment of Meteorological Institute 1937 Establishment of Turkish State Meteorological Service Became member of International Organizations; WMO (1949) ECMWF (1975) EUMETSAT (1984) ECOMET (1999) 2000 Recognized as one of the 23 Regional Training Centre (RTC) 2008 Became member of ALADIN Consortium 2009 Became node in WMO RA VI RCC Network 2011 Re-organized History of TSMS

  4. Organization Chart of TSMS

  5. In-Situ Observation Automatic Weather Observation Stations 1109 733 544 2003-2011 2012 2016

  6. In-Situ Observation Upper Air Observing Network 8 stations are making 2 times observation at 00 and 12 UTC in every day. They are transmitting data via GPS

  7. In-Situ Observations, Airport and Marine Stations There are 62 airport stations, 50 of them with AWOSs Together with sea temperature observations in 19 stations, 40 AWOS will be installed on buoys and lighthouse. 2015 target is 62 stations

  8. Remote sensing ObservationsWeather Radars 10 C-Band Doppler Radars installed in Ankara, İstanbul, Zonguldak, Balıkesir, İzmir, Muğla, Antalya, Adana, (Samsun and Trabzon are in test phase), 50 X Band Radars will be installed in 2015

  9. Remote Sensing Observations Radar composit image MSG IR Ch-9 Turkey is been a EUMETSAT member since 1984. We are receiving data from EUMETSAT MSG(Geo-Stationary) in 3km spatial , 5 min. temporal resolution and from NOAA (polar) in 1km spatial and 6h temporal resolution MSG IR increased colorfulness

  10. Models • TSMS is using following models: • ECMWF • MM5 • ALADIN • WRF • METU3 (Marine) • SWAN (Marine) • DREAM-8 Dust Transport • MEUS (Forest Fire) • AGROMETSHELL • RegCM3-4 MM5 Horizontal res. 13/4/2 km Vertical res.41 level/10 mb Forecast period: 72 hours ALADIN Horizontal resolution: 4 km Vertical res. 60 level/10 mb Forecast period: 48 hours

  11. Meteorological Communication and Application Package TURK-METCAP It simplifies communication between different forecast centre as well as prepare charts, images and diagrams. It consists of many modules for meteorological applications

  12. Products&ServicesWeather Forecast • Nowcasting : 3 - 6 hours forecasts; • Warnings : ~400warnings /year • Short Range : 12 - 24 hours forecasts; • Medium Range : 1 - 7 days forecasts; • Airports : TAF and SPECI; • Ocean : 1- 3 days forecasts;

  13. Weather Forecast Very Short-Range Forecasts (Nowcasting) and Warnings: Forecasts for severe weather; Heavy precipitation, thunderstorm, tornado, flood risk; Published on WWW, radio, and sent to cell-phones as SMS; Precautions managed by the cooperation with Disaster Coordination Centers and local authorities.

  14. Warnings Date time warning # Severty Dust Transport (location) (valid time) (disruptions in transportation) Rainfall (mm)classification 1 – 5 light rain 6 - 20 medium rainfall 21-50 strong rainfall 51-75 v. strong rainfall 76-100 heavy rainfall >100 very heavy rainfall (urgent) (location) (valid time) (flash flood, lightning)

  15. Short range forecast

  16. Medium range forecast

  17. SMS and E-mail Services: MeteorologicalWarnings To prevent and reduce the losses due to extreme events, Early Warnings are prepared and sent to Public via GSM Operators (SMS) and e-mail to 4500 users.

  18. FM Radio Voice of Meteorology Our Radio Channel (“Meteor FM”) broadcasts in 27cities and reaching almost 40 million people country-wide. Our broadcast is accessible all over the world via Turksat 1-C satellite.

  19. Android Application Latest observations for the selected city 5 days weather forecast for selected cities

  20. Products&Services METU-3 SEA-WAVE PREDICTION MODEL HIGHWAY FORECASTING SYSTEM

  21. Black Sea and Middle East Flash Flood Guidance System Turkey became a Flash Flood Guidance System (FFGS ) regional center on 29-31 March 2010. FFGS is supported by WMO, HRC, NOAA and USAID . Aim of FFGS is to make flash flood warning for allparticipating countries Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. Bulgaria and Romania areobservers and would become members in the future.

  22. Dust Transport Model Surface dust concentration (µg/m3) The DREAM-8 model dust transport model has been developed at TSMS in cooperation with Spain under the EU TAIEX Small Grants Program. The operational forecasts by DREAM-8 has been started at June 2010. Forecasts are published at the TSMS website.

  23. MEUS- Early Warning Model for Forest Fire For the prevention of forest fires, “Meteorological Early Warning Model for Forest Fire” was developed and results of the model are sent to Directorate of Forest Administration.

  24. Agricultural Frost Warning Agricultural Frost Risk Maps are prepared and published via websitefor 4 days and are updated every day

  25. Drought Monitoring Drought is monitoring by using Aydeniz, SPI, PNI and Palmer methods

  26. Monthly & seasonal temperature analyses Temperature analyses have been doing by using real time data. It is using ArcGIS for interpolation and mapping purpose. It is calculating their differences from normal. Anomaly is the differences from normal (1971-2000) and it is determining by using Z distribution.

  27. Annual climate assessment report We are preparing annual climate assessment for Turkey . This assessments is also been contributed to WMO’s and NOAA’s State of the Climate Report. Spatial and temporal temperature and precipitation anomalies in Turkey

  28. Heat and cold wave analysis Figure. Heat and cold wave occurred stations in 2012 Heat wave (The daily maximum temperature of more than five consecutive days exceeds the average maximum temperature by 5°C) observed in 66 stations more than one time mainly in April, June, July and September. Also Cold wave was (The daily minimum temperature of more than five consecutive days decreased the average minimum temperature by 5°C) observed in 33 stations in January, February and March.

  29. Climate Indices studies We are using WMO RClimDex software to calculate 27 climate indices. This software is very good tools to detect trends in temperature and precipitation extremes. Trends in summer day (a), tropical night (b), warm days (c) and warm night (d) are increasing all over Turkey

  30. Regional climate model studies RegCM3 Outputs While temperature increasing will be limited up to 1940, towards the end of the century it will be reached 6°C Winter precipitation dramatically decrease (%10-30) in south part of Turkey and increase (%10-25) in the north for the period of 2071-2099. New server has been bought to run RegCM-4 with new RCP Scenarios

  31. Ozone and UV Observations Ozone and UV onservations are very important for public health • In Ankara we are using Brewer Spectrophotometer and ozonesonde in order to observe atmospheric ozone profile • Also there are 10 UV Automatic Observation Stations (5 more planned) Calculated UV values for 130 station are given at: www.dmi.gov.tr/kurumici/tahmin-ozon-mgm.aspx

  32. CAP Needs for WMO Commission for Climatology GPC, RTC, RCC, RCOF Liaison with GFCS WMO Commission for Climatology has OPACE 3 and 4 in which coordinate GPC, RTC, RCC, RCOF and has strong liaison with GFCS. Through this centers CCl delivers climate monitoring seasonal forecast and climate watch advisory which can be delivered via xml codes.

  33. www.rccra6.org TSMS take place in three nodes of RA VI RCC network

  34. http://emcc.dmi.gov.tr/ NCEP and TSMS data are using for monitoring purposes. Monitoring data have been reprocessing, spatially enhancing and mapping by using ArcGIS Spatial Analyze IDW interpolation technique.

  35. http://emcc.dmi.gov.tr/ Seasonal Forecast is updated from ECMWF in every month for the next 3 month and contains precipitation and 2m temperature anomaly maps. According to WMO RA VI RCC Implementation Plan, Seasonal Forecast contains precipitation and 2m temperature anomaly maps are preparing by using ArcGIS and updated every month for the next 3 month.

  36. SEECOF Contribution 2012 Summer Season Assessment of Turkey Compare to SEECOF7 Experts Forecasts 2012 Summer Season Mean Temperature Anomaly of Turkey According to seasonal outlook for summer season 2012, in the most of the SEECOF region there was expected more likelihood for the above average summer season temperature, while eastern part of Turkey, it is likely to be near to above normal. Generally, mean temperatures were above normal values in almost whole country. It was expected probably 60% above normal. For the zone 2, mean temperatures were around normal as expected probably 40%.

  37. Thanks...

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