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Assessment of Vulnerability to Food Insecurity in Rural Areas of South Punjab, Pakistan. Dr. Muhammad Khalid Bashir Dr. Steven Schilizzi Dr. Muhammad Ashfaq. Outline. Background Food Security: The Issue World Situation Aim and objectives Methodology Results
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Assessment of Vulnerability to Food Insecurity in Rural Areas of South Punjab, Pakistan Dr. Muhammad Khalid Bashir Dr. Steven Schilizzi Dr. Muhammad Ashfaq
Outline • Background • Food Security: The Issue • World Situation • Aim and objectives • Methodology • Results • Food Security Sensitivity Analysis • Vulnerability Analysis
Food Security: The Issue • Prominent in 70s • Food Security: more than 190 definitions • Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO): A quality of the food that is alwaysavailable; that all persons have access to; that it is nutritionally adequate in terms of quantity, quality and variety; and that it is acceptable within the given culture. Only when all these conditions are in place a population can be considered“food secure
World Situation South Asia 295 million (35%) India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka &Nepal Bangladesh
Aim and Objectives To assess the vulnerability to food insecurity of rural households • Highlight food security situation in South Punjab • Expand the debate to concepts of vulnerability
Methodology • Data Collection • South Punjab • 3 Districts • 6 villages • 16 households each • village • Sample size = 288
Methodology • Dietary Intake Assessment • 7 days recall method • adjusted adult equivalent units • Food Deficiency Status • Calorie Calculations • Food Insecurity Status • Food security index • Vulnerability Analysis • Value at Risk • Conditional Value at Risk • Under normal conditions • Under 3 possible shocks (assuming normal conditions)
Results FS Security Situation
Results Food intake curves for different shock scenarios A: Uniform shocks | B: Increasing shocks | C: Decreasing shocks | D: Random shocks
Results Vulnerability Analysis • Value-at-Risk (VaR) • Risk assessment of financial and banking sector • Poverty • Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) • average of the 5% worst cases in VaR
Results Vulnerability Analysis – Normal Conditions VaR cVaR
Results Vulnerability Analysis – Constant Shocks (A) VaR cVaR
Results Vulnerability Analysis – Increasing Shocks (B) VaR cVaR
Results Vulnerability Analysis – Decreasing Shocks (C) VaR cVaR
Results Vulnerability Analysis – Random Shocks (D) VaR cVaR
Conclusions: • Food security index gives more precise information as compared to food deficient status • Food security index may be used as a proxy for vulnerability analysis • Although the results obtained will be poor estimates of vulnerability • Vulnerability analysis showed that the lowest 5 percentiles of the selected households are at risk of food insecurity • Need for disaggregated and targeted policies