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Assessment of Vulnerability to Food Insecurity in Rural Areas of South Punjab, Pakistan

Assessment of Vulnerability to Food Insecurity in Rural Areas of South Punjab, Pakistan. Dr. Muhammad Khalid Bashir Dr. Steven Schilizzi Dr. Muhammad Ashfaq. Outline. Background Food Security: The Issue World Situation Aim and objectives Methodology Results

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Assessment of Vulnerability to Food Insecurity in Rural Areas of South Punjab, Pakistan

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  1. Assessment of Vulnerability to Food Insecurity in Rural Areas of South Punjab, Pakistan Dr. Muhammad Khalid Bashir Dr. Steven Schilizzi Dr. Muhammad Ashfaq

  2. Outline • Background • Food Security: The Issue • World Situation • Aim and objectives • Methodology • Results • Food Security Sensitivity Analysis • Vulnerability Analysis

  3. Food Security: The Issue • Prominent in 70s • Food Security: more than 190 definitions • Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO): A quality of the food that is alwaysavailable; that all persons have access to; that it is nutritionally adequate in terms of quantity, quality and variety; and that it is acceptable within the given culture. Only when all these conditions are in place a population can be considered“food secure

  4. World Situation South Asia 295 million (35%) India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka &Nepal Bangladesh

  5. Aim and Objectives To assess the vulnerability to food insecurity of rural households • Highlight food security situation in South Punjab • Expand the debate to concepts of vulnerability

  6. Methodology • Data Collection • South Punjab • 3 Districts • 6 villages • 16 households each • village • Sample size = 288

  7. Methodology • Dietary Intake Assessment • 7 days recall method • adjusted adult equivalent units • Food Deficiency Status • Calorie Calculations • Food Insecurity Status • Food security index • Vulnerability Analysis • Value at Risk • Conditional Value at Risk • Under normal conditions • Under 3 possible shocks (assuming normal conditions)

  8. Results FS Security Situation

  9. Results Food intake curves for different shock scenarios A: Uniform shocks | B: Increasing shocks | C: Decreasing shocks | D: Random shocks

  10. Results Vulnerability Analysis • Value-at-Risk (VaR) • Risk assessment of financial and banking sector • Poverty • Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) • average of the 5% worst cases in VaR

  11. Results Vulnerability Analysis – Normal Conditions VaR cVaR

  12. Results Vulnerability Analysis – Constant Shocks (A) VaR cVaR

  13. Results Vulnerability Analysis – Increasing Shocks (B) VaR cVaR

  14. Results Vulnerability Analysis – Decreasing Shocks (C) VaR cVaR

  15. Results Vulnerability Analysis – Random Shocks (D) VaR cVaR

  16. Conclusions: • Food security index gives more precise information as compared to food deficient status • Food security index may be used as a proxy for vulnerability analysis • Although the results obtained will be poor estimates of vulnerability • Vulnerability analysis showed that the lowest 5 percentiles of the selected households are at risk of food insecurity • Need for disaggregated and targeted policies

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