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Malcolm Gladwell

Malcolm Gladwell. Evidence-Based Policing: A Tipping Point Perspective. Professor L. W. Sherman Institute of Criminology University of Cambridge. Paul Revere. A Social Network. Which One is William Dawes?. Where is Paul Revere?. 4 Degrees of Separation. Practical Points— “useful”

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Malcolm Gladwell

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  1. Malcolm Gladwell

  2. Evidence-Based Policing:A Tipping Point Perspective Professor L. W. Sherman Institute of Criminology University of Cambridge

  3. Paul Revere

  4. A Social Network

  5. Which One is William Dawes?

  6. Where is Paul Revere?

  7. 4 Degrees of Separation

  8. Practical Points— “useful” “Liberal Education” Points--- “ornamental” But Is That The Point?

  9. Mathematician Physicist Engineer Inventor “Give me a place to stand and with a lever I will move the whole world” Archimedes, 287-212 B.C.

  10. The Tipping Point: What’s the Point?

  11. What’s The Point? 1. Key “Points” of The Tipping Point: --Little things can make a big difference --Major change can happen rapidly --Social networks are highways of change 2. Larger points of these points: social physics --Epistemology of Social Science --How You Can Think About Behavior --Evidence beats intuition

  12. Succeed in the world Change the world Understand the world Save The World What Can You Do With It?

  13. Succeed in the World Get a job Get promoted Get elected Get rich

  14. US Fax Sales 1984-1989

  15. Change The World • Cause good epidemics —wear seat belts • Prevent or stop bad epidemics --wipe out polio among 60 million people? • Protect police independence from politics as a knowledge-based profession!

  16. Persuade Parents to Vaccinate forPolio:Tamil Nadu, India, 1991-2003

  17. Understand the World • Think more like a social scientist: How things Could be • Think less like a moralizer: How things Should be • See causation like an inventor: Trial and error, 5,000+ times

  18. Foresee disasters Take steps against them Establish Warnings Prevent Catastrophes Save The World

  19. Get Laws Passed

  20. Three Questions • What is a Tipping Point? • Why are Tipping Points important? • How can they be manufactured?

  21. 1. What Is a Tipping Point? • Definitions • Examples • Dynamics--ABCs

  22. What it is NOT: Just A TURNING Point. WHY NOT?

  23. US Civil War 1861-65 Gettysburg 1863 Two years until Peace Steady up and down TURNING Points Can Be Gradual

  24. TIPPING Points are SUDDEN

  25. Turning Points Are Often Slow:Tobacco in USA, 1920-99

  26. Definition “That one dramatic moment in an epidemic when everything can change all at once.” --Malcolm Gladwell, p. 9 Not just Infection, but CONTAGION Arithmetic change to GEOMETRIC

  27. Rates of Growth and Decay crime rate crime rate crime rate crime rate size of police force size of police force size of police force size of police force linear linear nonlinear, tipping nonlinear, gradual decay

  28. Mathematical Definition

  29. More Precisely, A Sequence of Behaviors by • Innovators • Early Adopters • Majority • Laggards

  30. Where Is the Tipping Point? Look Within: “..a perfect epidemic curve, tipping just as the Early Adopters start using.., then rising sharply as the Majority catches on, and falling away at the end when the Laggards come straggling in.” Gladwell, p. 197

  31. Find the Tipping Points:Name That Year • Adoption of Seed Corn in Iowa, 1928-1941 • Fall in Crime, New York City, 1975-2000 • Fall in Accidental Death, US, 1945-2000

  32. NY Murder by Percent, 1990-98

  33. Dynamics • Epidemics, not gradual change • Tipping Points— found within epidemic change process

  34. Dynamics of Epidemics • Contagion (through social networks) • Little causes = big effects (geometric) • Sudden, not gradual, nature of big change

  35. But Not Always So Fast:Laws vs. Infections • Early Adopters • Majority • But special interests block majority • Examples: Gun Control in US Death Penalty in US Slavery in UK, 1792

  36. ABCs of Tipping Points A. The Law of the Few B. The Stickiness Factor C. The Power of Context

  37. A. The Law of the Few “The success of any kind of social epidemic is dependent upon the involvement of people with a particular and rare set of social gifts.” --Gladwell, p. 33 (Well….it can be, in many cases—not always)

  38. Italian Economist Inspired “80/20” Rule: 80% of result comes from 20% of people or investment Vilfredo Pareto, 1848-1923

  39. The Few Who Matter Most:Leaders (of sorts) • Connectors—linking diverse people • Mavens—brokering diverse facts • Salesmen—motivating people to act

  40. Silversmith Cardplayer Theatre-goer Fisherman Civic Leader Insurance Co. Traveler MANY WORLDS Connector: Paul Revere

  41. Currency Markets (1997 Asian Crisis) Fall of Communism (Xerox machine revolution) Studies trends in many nations Funding Voter Drives Maven: Gorge Soros

  42. Radio Sports Shows Movie Actor TV Commercials Union President Governor US President Optimist Emotion-spreader Salesman: Ronald Reagan

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