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Learning Objectives

Population and Resources Population growth vs. Resources The Theories of Malthus and The Club of Rome. Learning Objectives. To define the terms Pessimistic and Optimistic  To describe Malthus’ pessimistic theory- its main ideas, checks and limitations.

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Learning Objectives

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  1. Population and ResourcesPopulation growth vs. ResourcesThe Theories of Malthus and The Club of Rome.

  2. Learning Objectives • To define the terms Pessimistic and Optimistic • To describe Malthus’ pessimistic theory- its main ideas, checks and limitations. •  To describe “The Club of Rome” theory- its main ideas and limitations.

  3. At the end of the 18th century this was a concerned man… THOMAS MALTHUS

  4. Resources Population The Malthusian Crisis Quantity Time

  5.  Malthusian Theory  • Pessimistic approach 1798 • Population increases geometrically (2,4,8,16,……) • BUT Food supply increases arithmetically (2,4,6,8,10,…….) • Malthus believed that food supply would limit population growth. • He thought there would be 2 main checks on excessive population growth • Misery (the 4 Horseman of the Apocalypse: Famine, Pestilence, Death, War) • He suggested we should show some moral restraint and abstain from sex and marry later to reduce the population and save Britain.

  6. Limitations to Malthus’ Model

  7. Was Malthus right? Many African countries have had very high birth rates but population growth has been limited by repeated famines, wars, environmental degradation, soil erosion, crop failure and disastrous floods. The UN suggests a third of the world’s population lacks food security • There have been technological improvements which he could not have foreseen • An increased amount of cropland due to irrigation • Reduced population growth as countries move through the DTM But:

  8. The Club of Rome • A Computer based model from 1972. • Data on population and resources was inputted and a prediction was made by the computer. • Results published as “The Limits to Growth”. • http://www.clubofrome.org/eng/home/

  9. 4K memory!

  10. Main Findings • If world population, food production, pollution and resource depletion continue unchanged we will reach the Limits of Growth. • This will happen suddenly in the next 100 years (from 1972). (wide time frame!!) • There will be an Uncontrollable decline in population and Industrial production • BUT we can save ourselves from this catastrophe by living sustainably. Are we?

  11. http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20100623194820/http://www.actoncopenhagen.decc.gov.uk/content/en/embeds/flash/4-degrees-large-map-finalhttp://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20100623194820/http://www.actoncopenhagen.decc.gov.uk/content/en/embeds/flash/4-degrees-large-map-final

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