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THE MISSOURI OZARK FOREST ECOSYSTEM PROJECT: EVALUATING LONG-TERM EVEN-AGED AND UNEVEN-AGED GROWTH AND HARVEST SIMULATIO

THE MISSOURI OZARK FOREST ECOSYSTEM PROJECT: EVALUATING LONG-TERM EVEN-AGED AND UNEVEN-AGED GROWTH AND HARVEST SIMULATION. Thomas Treiman – Missouri Department of Conservation John Dwyer – University of Missouri David Larsen – University of Missouri. The MOFEP Project.

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THE MISSOURI OZARK FOREST ECOSYSTEM PROJECT: EVALUATING LONG-TERM EVEN-AGED AND UNEVEN-AGED GROWTH AND HARVEST SIMULATIO

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  1. THE MISSOURI OZARK FOREST ECOSYSTEM PROJECT: EVALUATING LONG-TERM EVEN-AGED AND UNEVEN-AGED GROWTH AND HARVEST SIMULATION Thomas Treiman – Missouri Department of Conservation John Dwyer – University of Missouri David Larsen – University of Missouri

  2. The MOFEP Project • Evaluate the outcomes of three silvicultural management regimes: • Even-aged harvesting • Uneven-aged harvesting • No harvest

  3. Analysis Tools: LMS

  4. Starting from the first inventory*… “Value” = volume X price Adjusted for species and inflation. * Thanks to Randy!

  5. P.S. Yes – this data IS on the web site!!

  6. Grow (Project), Treat (Harvest) and Analyze MOFEP Stands

  7. and, so, inflexible. Treatments based on the “official” MOFEP schedule

  8. Calculate the present value of future harvests Net present value (NPV) is based on timber volume (quantity), price (in current dollars) and the discount rate.

  9. Issues: • What interest rate to use for discounting (D)? • Differential logging costs? Timber prices? • What about damage due to re-entry? • What about the residual stand? • What about risk and uncertainty? • What about non-market values?

  10. Compare financial outcomes

  11. Sensitivity analysis for Discount Rate

  12. Conclusions • No significant financial difference, for the long-term one-hundred year period, between UAM and EAM. • Re-entry? EAM impacts more acres with heavy equipment traffic. What’s the “cost”? • Need to include other uses such as recreation or non-traditional forest products, and non-consumptive uses, such as bequest to future generations, and amenity values, such as scenic beauty.

  13. Where now? • Further research on non-market values (Human Dimensions) • Wait for the next harvest and: • Compare actual vs. predicted • Price trends • Logging costs

  14. Thanks! Questions?

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