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William Trapmann william.trapmann@eia.doe Natural Gas Division

A Review of the EIA Weekly Survey of Natural Gas In Underground Storage 22 nd Annual North American Conference of the IAEE/USAEE. William Trapmann william.trapmann@eia.doe.gov Natural Gas Division Energy Information Administration. October 8, 2002. Outline.

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William Trapmann william.trapmann@eia.doe Natural Gas Division

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  1. A Review of the EIA Weekly Survey of Natural Gas In Underground Storage22nd Annual North American Conference of the IAEE/USAEE William Trapmann william.trapmann@eia.doe.gov Natural Gas Division Energy Information Administration October 8, 2002

  2. Outline • Background on Underground Natural Gas Storage • Update on new EIA weekly storage data project • The Outlook for Winter 2002/2003

  3. EIA Total Capacity Working Gas Capacity Working Gas in Storage Storage Capacity and Volumes January 1999-June 2002 EIA Total Gas in Storage Base Gas

  4. Natural Gas Consumption Varies Widely by Month Average for the Northeast Source: EIA, Natural Gas Division

  5. Key Features of the Weekly Storage Data Project • Weekly data collection and release • Mandatory collection • Sample survey • Collecting current working gas volumes

  6. Causes of Revisions • Reporting responsibilities for fields • Confusion about joint field operations • Issues of base, working, or total gas • Updating reference month for estimation parameters

  7. EIA Monthly and Weekly Data Have Become More Consistent Calculated differences between EIA and AGA estimates

  8. Revisions Have Become Much Less Frequent 5 revisions in 10 weeks 1 revision in 11 weeks

  9. Winter Prices Exceeded Spot Prices Greatly During Refill Season

  10. Working Gas Stocks Exceed Previous 5 Year Levels Working Gas Stocks as of September 20, 2002. Source: EIA, Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, September 26, 2002.

  11. Weekly Storage Report Regions Consuming West Consuming East Depleted Fields Salt Caverns Aquifers Producing Source: Energy Information Administration, EIAGIS-NG Geographic Information System.

  12. Total Natural Gas Demand Growth Patterns Sources: History: EIA; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2002.

  13. Natural Gas Prices Will Remain Above $3 Through 2003 Sources: History: Natural Gas Week; Projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2002.

  14. Winter Residential Natural Gas Consumption and Costs Average Midwest Household 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 Actual Actual Actual Forecast* Mcf 81.7 99.1 81.3 91.3 ($/Mcf) $6.69 $9.54 $7.33 $7.78 $546 $945 $596 $710 Total Winter Cost ($) *Energy Information Administration projections: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2002 (assumes normal winter weather) Source: All other data: Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Monthly.

  15. Summary • EIA’s new weekly storage data project • Revisions are much less frequent • Storage entering this winter is at relatively high levels • Natural gas prices, although higher through 2003, will avoid severe spikes

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