1 / 21

Evaluating the Full Spectrum of Efforts by the State to Control Terrorism

Evaluating the Full Spectrum of Efforts by the State to Control Terrorism. Laura Dugan University of Maryland Erica Chenoweth Wesleyan University. How we Typically Think of Counterterrorism. Effects might Depend on Regional Diversity. Government Legitimacy

mio
Download Presentation

Evaluating the Full Spectrum of Efforts by the State to Control Terrorism

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Evaluating the Full Spectrum of Efforts by the State to Control Terrorism Laura Dugan University of Maryland Erica Chenoweth Wesleyan University

  2. How we Typically Think of Counterterrorism

  3. Effects might Depend on Regional Diversity • Government Legitimacy • Economic and Social Well-Being of Citizens—or terrorist constituency • Political Literacy • Religious Influences

  4. Effects Might Depend on Terrorist Organizational Diversity • Apocalyptic • Single Issue • Religious • Nationalist • Dependent on Constituency • Highly Competitive with Other Organizations • And so on…

  5. Dealing with the Devil:START funded research with Erica Chenoweth Considers the full range of approaches to countering terrorism from fully conciliatory to excessively repressive, with an eye toward developing a global counterterrorism database. Only by understanding the optimal counterterrorism strategy that is best suited across a spectrum of conditions can we improve our chances of reducing global terrorism.

  6. More Specifically We will collect data from five Middle East countries on a wide range of government actions directed toward perpetrators of terrorism. Israel Algeria Egypt Turkey Lebanon

  7. Sample Actions beating Boycott supporters Martial law sniper raid deploy patrol harass release Stakeouts Investigating Abuses internment

  8. Dimensions of Countering Terrorism TARGET Discriminate Repressive Conciliatory ACTION ACTOR TYPE Politician Justice Police Military Iniscriminate Material V/NV Immaterial

  9. Conciliatory-Repressive Scale • Accommodation • Conciliatory action • Conciliatory statement or intention • Neutral or ambiguous • Verbal conflict • Physical conflict • Extreme repression (intent to kill)

  10. Data Collection Strategy • Literature Search • Textual Analysis by Augmented Replacement Instructions (TABARI) • Searches lead sentences of news sources based on complex dictionary that specifies subject, verb and object (actor-action-target). (international event data) • Filters hits into a new file and a database that captures key variables. • Keep action by State Actors against Sub-State Actors

  11. Preliminary Findings for Israel - Actors

  12. Israeli Targets

  13. Actions Captured in TABARI

  14. Actions by Israel

  15. Actions by Israel

  16. Repressive Actions & Terrorism

  17. Conciliatory Actions & Terrorism

  18. All Actions & Terrorism

  19. Methods to Assessing Efficacy • Vector Autoregression: multiple time series of different types of actions and terrorist attacks by different perpetrators. • Series Hazard Modeling: Analysis of more discrete campaigns countering terrorism on the hazard of continued attacks.

  20. Next Steps • Complete data for remaining 4 countries • Use original articles to collect more details about actions and to link them through campaigns. • Fill in the detail • Extend data collection to remaining 7 additional countries including more democracies.

  21. Additional Slide

More Related